Author Topic: GOP Master thread (Read 241067 times)

JTZ · « **Reply #1780 on:** July 03, 2016, 03:08:16 AM »

Quote from: Deal Guy on July 03, 2016, 02:28:54 AM

Is he really that clueless??

Maybe you need to get out more. I will bet the house most don't know.

Deal Guy · « **Reply #1781 on:** July 03, 2016, 03:14:10 AM »

Quote from: JTZ on July 03, 2016, 03:08:16 AM

Maybe you need to get out more. I will bet the house most don't know.

Its these small mistakes that will end up costing him. You don't run to tweet something and then take it back two hours later. He needs to be more presidential and he needs better advisors looking over what he posts.

JTZ · « **Reply #1782 on:** July 03, 2016, 07:52:56 AM »

Quote from: Deal Guy on July 03, 2016, 03:14:10 AM

Its these small mistakes that will end up costing him. You don't run to tweet something and then take it back two hours later. He needs to be more presidential and he needs better advisors looking over what he posts.

What draws people to him is that he isn't political correct.

good sam · « **Reply #1783 on:** July 03, 2016, 08:18:33 AM »

Quote from: Deal Guy on July 03, 2016, 03:14:10 AM

Its these small mistakes that will end up costing him. You don't run to tweet something and then take it back two hours later. He needs to be more presidential and he needs better advisors looking over what he posts.

Lol. Where have you been for the last year?

good sam · « **Reply #1784 on:** July 03, 2016, 11:03:09 AM »

So I guess nobody wants to discuss the last few polls which have DT winning or within MOE.

grodnoking · « **Reply #1785 on:** July 03, 2016, 11:07:16 AM »

Quote from: good sam on July 03, 2016, 11:03:09 AM

So I guess nobody wants to discuss the last few polls which have DT winning or within MOE.

HuffPost Model
Our model of the polls suggests Clinton is very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, Clinton led Trump.)
Choices
Click a choice to show or hide it on the chart.
Clinton45.5%

Trump39.4%
Undecided10.0%

Other5.2%

skyguy918 · « **Reply #1786 on:** July 03, 2016, 11:53:14 AM »

Quote from: good sam on July 03, 2016, 11:03:09 AM

So I guess nobody wants to discuss the last few polls which have DT winning or within MOE.

I assume you're talking about Rasmussen? Don't think it's exactly news that the most right-leaning poll is the only one to show Trump in the lead.

It's interesting to look at the undecided portion of these polls. The bigger that group is (and in the general population it's probably bigger), the greater the chance that we'll be 'shocked' with the final result.

Deal Guy · « **Reply #1787 on:** July 03, 2016, 11:56:01 AM »

Poll.
Who here on ddf was actually contacted by any polls for their opinion on who they are supporting?
That comes to show you how accurate the polls really are, since you don't really know who is being contacted.

JTZ · « **Reply #1788 on:** July 03, 2016, 12:02:39 PM »

Quote from: Deal Guy on July 03, 2016, 11:56:01 AM

Poll.
Who here on ddf was actually contacted by any polls for their opinion on who they are supporting?
That comes to show you how accurate the polls really are, since you don't really know who is being contacted.

Hand raised.

grodnoking · « **Reply #1789 on:** July 03, 2016, 12:15:53 PM »

Quote from: Deal Guy on July 03, 2016, 11:56:01 AM

Poll.
Who here on ddf was actually contacted by any polls for their opinion on who they are supporting?
That comes to show you how accurate the polls really are, since you don't really know who is being contacted.

Oh, my mother gets called all the time. After a half hour of giving them a wild goose chase she usually picks the most random answer.

Moshe123 · « **Reply #1790 on:** July 03, 2016, 12:35:01 PM »

I've responded to numerous polls over the years.

Moshe123 · « **Reply #1791 on:** July 03, 2016, 12:35:37 PM »

Trump's "Star of David" Hillary Meme Was Created by White Supremacists https://t.co/tCxYU0m398

good sam · « **Reply #1792 on:** July 03, 2016, 08:17:14 PM »

Quote from: skyguy918 on July 03, 2016, 11:53:14 AM

I assume you're talking about Rasmussen? Don't think it's exactly news that the most right-leaning poll is the only one to show Trump in the lead.

It's interesting to look at the undecided portion of these polls. The bigger that group is (and in the general population it's probably bigger), the greater the chance that we'll be 'shocked' with the final result.

And Gravis, and PPP and IBD. All within MOE when Johnson is included.

skyguy918 · « **Reply #1793 on:** July 03, 2016, 10:02:03 PM »

Quote from: Moshe123 on July 03, 2016, 12:35:37 PM

Trump's "Star of David" Hillary Meme Was Created by White Supremacists https://t.co/tCxYU0m398

This one is still my favorite:
http://gawker.com/how-we-fooled-donald-trump-into-retweeting-benito-musso-1761795039

good sam · « **Reply #1794 on:** July 03, 2016, 10:13:47 PM »

Quote from: skyguy918 on July 03, 2016, 10:02:03 PM

This one is still my favorite:
http://gawker.com/how-we-fooled-donald-trump-into-retweeting-benito-musso-1761795039

This one from Gawker is a masterpiece.

http://gawker.com/is-donald-trump-s-hair-a-60-000-weave-a-gawker-invest-1777581357

skyguy918 · « **Reply #1795 on:** July 03, 2016, 10:15:22 PM »

Quote from: good sam on July 03, 2016, 08:17:14 PM

And Gravis, and PPP and IBD. All within MOE when Johnson is included.

If you throw in the kitchen sink, why even bother with the polls. MOE is there for them to not look so bad if they're off. If your point is, he might be leading, that's not exactly news.

ETA: Just going through some of these. You can't pick and choose. Gravis has Clinton-Trump at 51-49 with a 2.1% MOE. But if you throw in Johnson it comes almost entirely out of Trump's pocket at 50-45-5 (C-T-J), out of reach of their MOE. Also, while their political affiliation question shows the sample skewed D, the ideology question shows it also skewed conservative.

skyguy918 · « **Reply #1796 on:** July 03, 2016, 10:20:10 PM »

Quote from: good sam on July 03, 2016, 10:13:47 PM

This one from Gawker is a masterpiece.

http://gawker.com/is-donald-trump-s-hair-a-60-000-weave-a-gawker-invest-1777581357

Yeah, the first one was fun, but this was legit investigative journalism. And BTW, Ivari (the hair guy) is suing them with... Hulk Hogan's Peter Thiel backed lawyer.

good sam · « **Reply #1797 on:** July 03, 2016, 11:06:49 PM »

Quote from: skyguy918 on July 03, 2016, 10:15:22 PM

MOE is there for them to not look so bad if they're off.

Whaaat? This coming from a math guy?

http://statistics.about.com/od/Inferential-Statistics/a/How-To-Calculate-The-Margin-Of-Error.htm

Moshe123 · « **Reply #1798 on:** July 03, 2016, 11:36:44 PM »

https://www.buzzfeed.com/ljsilverman/trump-supporters-flooded-me-with-anti-semitic-taun-2amsu?utm_term=.jhRvr6bxx#.talMkW2QQ

skyguy918 · « **Reply #1799 on:** July 04, 2016, 12:01:06 AM »

Quote from: good sam on July 03, 2016, 11:06:49 PM

Whaaat? This coming from a math guy?

http://statistics.about.com/od/Inferential-Statistics/a/How-To-Calculate-The-Margin-Of-Error.htm

I'm not talking about the significance of MOE in statistics. I'm talking about their relevance to a discussion of polls 4 months out.

ETA: Meaning to say that if the situation was reversed, the Trump supporters wouldn't be putting in that caveat - 'with the MOE they're in a dead heat'.