Author Topic: GOP Master thread  (Read 239237 times)

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17523
  • Total likes: 14498
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #940 on: April 04, 2016, 10:46:33 PM »


Cruz, again most Trump supporters will stay home feeling that the Cruz stole he nominee + Cruz is far to Frum....
That is what Trump would like you to believe but not likely to be true. As long as it is within the rules and Trump doesn't get a majority Cruz can win with strategy.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline elit

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2008
  • Posts: 1349
  • Total likes: 119
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #941 on: April 04, 2016, 10:53:01 PM »
Do you mean "hasn't?"

I'd say the opposite. If Kasich, even as a relative unknown, is polling consistently better than Hillary, that's pretty significant. He doesn't energize the base, but he also doesn't energize the opposition and can win key swing states (in addition to the red states that he'll still win even if he doesn't energize the base).

Here's a neat tool that simulates expected electoral outcome ranges by matchup. I have no idea how good the results are, but it is fun to play around with some of the possible matchups. Here's some of the results they have:

Clinton vs. Trump - 338 to 200 (OH, PA, FL, VA go to Clinton. OH, PA, and VA by a healthy margin)
Clinton vs. Cruz - 317 to 221 (OH, PA, FL, VA go to Clinton)
Clinton vs. Kasich - 288 to 250 (PA, FL go to Clinton; OH, VA go to Kasich)
Clinton vs. Romney - 310 to 228 (pretty much the same as the last election)
Clinton vs. Rubio - 259 to 279 (Clinton gets VA and FL by a hair, but Rubio gets OH, PA, NH, MI, CO, NC)

Rubio's the only one that beats Clinton acc to the site's model. But if Kasich can turn FL, he'd win. Rubio or Kasich IMO would be a great VP choice.
Yes I meant hasn't sorry. ...
Bc kasich hadn't been in the limelight theres very little negative attention especially as opposed to the other candidates so he polls well I'd the focus was on him he very likely will go down
R can go for whatever they want, but there's zero chance that Cruz or Trump get to the White House, so clearly not everyone wants something DIFFERENT.
Why do you think Cruz has no chance

Offline EJB

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 5410
  • Total likes: 254
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #942 on: April 04, 2016, 10:58:54 PM »
Yes I meant hasn't sorry. ...
Bc kasich hadn't been in the limelight theres very little negative attention especially as opposed to the other candidates so he polls well I'd the focus was on him he very likely will go down

Why do you think Cruz has no chance

1. The same can be said about Cruz and Trump, as they haven't had the limelight of a general election candidate yet. The negative things about them would impact them significantly more in a general election than a republican primary. Trump and Cruz both alienate moderates and minorities. Kasich may not have had to endure much scrutiny, but unless some huge scandal comes out, his positions and accomplishments are not likely to alienate a significant block of the voters.

2. The electoral math doesn't work in favor of the republicans. To win the general, republicans have to almost sweep the swing states. If the republicans lose one major swing state, like Florida or Ohio, there is almost no electoral path for their victory. They literally would need to sweep the rest. Do you think Cruz can sweep the big battleground states?

Offline Buruch

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2012
  • Posts: 1984
  • Total likes: 39
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #943 on: April 04, 2016, 11:01:15 PM »
Well he's been pretty consistent in the polls. He could go up, but he's incredibly easy to attack w his positions on social issues that will alienate moderates and women. Not as much as trump would, but I think 50/50 is being VERY generous to Cruz.

Where do you see that? For the last 3 months he's been ahead of her. Until the last couple weeks. Fluctuates.

Offline elit

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2008
  • Posts: 1349
  • Total likes: 119
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #944 on: April 04, 2016, 11:02:37 PM »
1. The same can be said about Cruz and Trump, as they haven't had the limelight of a general election candidate yet. The negative things about them would impact them significantly more in a general election than a republican primary. Trump and Cruz both alienate moderates and minorities. Kasich may not have had to endure much scrutiny, but unless some huge scandal comes out, his positions and accomplishments are not likely to alienate a significant block of the voters.

2. The electoral math doesn't work in favor of the republicans. To win the general, republicans have to almost sweep the swing states. If the republicans lose one major swing state, like Florida or Ohio, there is almost no electoral path for their victory. They literally would need to sweep the rest. Do you think Cruz can sweep the big battleground states?
Depends on a lot of factors like who his VP is.... hillary had a lot of issues and I think anyone north of trump has a shot of they run a good campaign and if cruz had shown anything in the primary it is that he knows how to run a organized strategic campaign

Offline EJB

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 5410
  • Total likes: 254
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #945 on: April 04, 2016, 11:04:46 PM »
Depends on a lot of factors like who his VP is.... hillary had a lot of issues and I think anyone north of trump has a shot of they run a good campaign and if cruz had shown anything in the primary it is that he knows how to run a organized strategic campaign

He also knows how to spell "America," unlike another former candidate  ;D ;D ;D

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17523
  • Total likes: 14498
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #946 on: April 04, 2016, 11:29:31 PM »


Trump and Cruz both alienate moderates and minorities. Kasich may not have had to endure much scrutiny, but unless some huge scandal comes out, his positions and accomplishments are not likely to alienate a significant block of the voters.
Kasich certainly won't alienate anyone-he has no supporters to alienate.

This whole idea not to take a position in order to not alienate this that out the other group is a bunch of bunk. It is only when they equivocate that they let a position be defined as anti whatever. A candidate who stands up for what they believe in will not alienate them.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 67727
  • Total likes: 17150
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #947 on: April 04, 2016, 11:41:46 PM »
Blah blah blah.
Just because you aren't an unelectable extremist doesn't mean you don't have positions.

He didn't win 2 OH elections without appealing to both sides. And he's done that while lowering taxes and shrinking government.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17523
  • Total likes: 14498
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #948 on: April 04, 2016, 11:50:15 PM »
Blah blah blah.
Just because you aren't an unelectable extremist doesn't mean you don't have positions.

He didn't win 2 OH elections without appealing to both sides. And he's done that while lowering taxes and shrinking government.
I can believe that he can be a good President. I don't believe that he can run a campaign which will get them there. He has yet to even get himself heard. In 75% off states he got less than 10% in most less than 5%. How can such an inept campaigner win the white house?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 67727
  • Total likes: 17150
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #949 on: April 04, 2016, 11:52:20 PM »
He can't win the GOP nomination because he's not extreme like the other guys and that's what the base wants right now. Doesn't matter what kind of campaign he would run.
But there's a reason he's the only one that dominates Clinton in the national polls when the other guys don't. The R base is too small and it's only shrinking.

With Trump or Cruz you're going to see a landslide D victory (assuming that Hillary doesn't get indicted before November). Take it to the bank.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17523
  • Total likes: 14498
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #950 on: April 05, 2016, 12:11:35 AM »
He can't win the GOP nomination because he's not extreme like the other guys and that's what the base wants right now. Doesn't matter what kind of campaign he would run.
3% in NV isn't only extremists
5% in GA isn't only extremists
6% in FLisn't only extremists
6% in LA isn't only extremists
3% in AR isn't only extremists
5% in MN isn't only extremists

Some of these aren't even major conservative states with a bunch having gone to Romney.

The polls have always shown Sanders beating all of them. What does that tell you?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 67727
  • Total likes: 17150
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #951 on: April 05, 2016, 12:20:02 AM »
.

The polls have always shown Sanders beating all of them. What does that tell you?
A. That Clinton is not well liked, especially in the I category.
B. That the Rs have a massive demographic problem and it will probably be a long time before we see another R in office. Especially with candidates that don't appeal to Is.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17523
  • Total likes: 14498
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #952 on: April 05, 2016, 12:25:04 AM »
A. That Clinton is not well liked, especially in the I category.
B. That the Rs have a massive demographic problem and it will probably be a long time before we see another R in office. Especially with candidates that don't appeal to Is.
They have a demographic problem inasmuch as they let themselves be defined by the Ds like Romney and the other moderates all do. By cowering into a corner when a D accuses of the ism of the day they end up admitting that their positions are "biased" even when they are not.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 67727
  • Total likes: 17150
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #953 on: April 05, 2016, 12:34:23 AM »
Except that Romney didn't lose in a landslide.

Watch what a Trump or Cruz election will bring. The results will look like the USAToday weather map in January.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline David Smith

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2015
  • Posts: 8075
  • Total likes: 212
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 13
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #954 on: April 05, 2016, 12:35:03 AM »
Except that Romney didn't lose in a landslide.

Watch what a Trump or Cruz election will bring. The results will look like the USAToday weather map in January.
This January was pretty nice. Unexpected things happen.
Romney is a bad example. Obama's unpopularity then was worse than Clinton and Sanders right now. Anybody was supposed to be able to beat him. It should've been a shoo in.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2016, 12:40:36 AM by David Smith »
Who do you think you are fooling? You think you are going to pull a quick one on your Creator? Good luck with that.
JTZ

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 67727
  • Total likes: 17150
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #955 on: April 05, 2016, 12:39:18 AM »
Are we talking about the same January tbat delayed my Hawaiian vacation by 5 days?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline David Smith

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2015
  • Posts: 8075
  • Total likes: 212
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 13
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #956 on: April 05, 2016, 12:42:34 AM »
Are we talking about the same January tbat delayed my Hawaiian vacation by 5 days?
Yup.
Who do you think you are fooling? You think you are going to pull a quick one on your Creator? Good luck with that.
JTZ

Online ilherman

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2013
  • Posts: 8940
  • Total likes: 228
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 35
    • View Profile
  • Location: Brooklyn
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #957 on: April 05, 2016, 12:55:39 AM »
For the life of mine I can't understand how people would vote for Hillary, forget about her emails, but someone who lied about the Benghazi attack is not eligible for this position. It just shows how she takes politics before anything. This is the last thing I wait to see from a president.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 67727
  • Total likes: 17150
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #958 on: April 05, 2016, 01:03:36 AM »
As opposed to Trump who has compulsively lied about everything, flip flopped on every position he has, tells crowds whatever he thinks they want to hear, runs businesses into bankruptcy, and is more vindictive and childlike than anyone?

I'd stay home in November personally if that were the matchup.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2016, 01:08:03 AM by Dan »
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline EJB

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 5410
  • Total likes: 254
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #959 on: April 05, 2016, 01:06:28 AM »
For the life of mine I can't understand how people would vote for Hillary, forget about her emails, but someone who lied about the Benghazi attack is not eligible for this position. It just shows how she takes politics before anything. This is the last thing I wait to see from a president.

And someone who filibusters for 21 hours doesn't take politics before anything? Both Clinton and Cruz are career politicians that have a history of lying to the American people. And Trump has a history of cheating people once it's too late to back down. I don't want any of them as my president.