Author Topic: GOP Master thread  (Read 237235 times)

Offline ilherman

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #660 on: March 19, 2016, 10:07:15 PM »
Where does that come in here?

You said that if it ends up being Trump vs Clinton
In all honesty I think there will be a strong 3rd party candidate in an election like that.
To which I said.
Never. That will hand over the nom to Clinton.

Let's not forget, Trump has a strung base of supporters. At least 40% of republicans favor him. No third party can win if they don't have that 40%.   
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline KJ

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #661 on: March 19, 2016, 10:08:40 PM »
Noch a mol? Go read the rules about what happens if nobody wins an outright majority of the electoral college.
what happens?

Offline ilherman

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #662 on: March 19, 2016, 10:09:22 PM »
In any case I invested a nice couple of dollars in Trump: Yes. https://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination

I think he will pull out a win, will see...
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Online ExGingi

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #663 on: March 19, 2016, 10:23:05 PM »
In any case I invested bet/gambled a nice couple of dollars in Trump: Yes. https://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination

I think he will pull out a win, will see...
FTFY
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #664 on: March 19, 2016, 10:27:07 PM »
Where does that come in here?

You said that if it ends up being Trump vs Clinton To which I said.
So far it seems you don't know what happens if a candidate doesn't get the majority of delegates at the convention and you don't know what happens if no candidate in the general election wins the majority of electoral college votes...
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline ilherman

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #665 on: March 19, 2016, 10:35:33 PM »
So far it seems you don't know what happens if a candidate doesn't get the majority of delegates at the convention and you don't know what happens if no candidate in the general election wins the majority of electoral college votes...
Oh, I did not Chap that you asked about the electoral college. In any case, I don't know but I'd say that Hilary would still win the electoral college in that case. Since most/a lot of R will stay home.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #666 on: March 19, 2016, 10:58:01 PM »
Why keep guessing rather than learn the law?
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Offline efflpetzel

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #667 on: March 19, 2016, 11:04:28 PM »
So far it seems you don't know what happens if a candidate doesn't get the majority of delegates at the convention and you don't know what happens if no candidate in the general election wins the majority of electoral college votes...
Trump will get a majority of delegates.

Offline ilherman

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #668 on: March 19, 2016, 11:12:14 PM »
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #669 on: March 19, 2016, 11:14:42 PM »
Why keep guessing rather than learn the law?

I doubt it'll be relevant.

With so many big winner-take-all states coming up, and with Kasich/Cruz splitting the mainstream republican vote, this nomination is Trump's to lose.

Even if a strong third-party candidate enters the race, it needs to be a candidate strong enough to outright win several states (away from both sides). Who do you think you be able to do that?

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #670 on: March 19, 2016, 11:19:59 PM »
I doubt it'll be relevant.

With so many big winner-take-all states coming up, and with Kasich/Cruz splitting the mainstream republican vote, this nomination is Trump's to lose.

Even if a strong third-party candidate enters the race, it needs to be a candidate strong enough to outright win several states (away from both sides). Who do you think you be able to do that?
Kasich could definitely win OH and just that could be enough to have an election where nobody wins 270.
Same goes for someone popular in any swing state.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #671 on: March 19, 2016, 11:24:14 PM »
Kasich could definitely win OH and just that could be enough to have an election where nobody wins 270.

1. I wouldn't say "definitely." Trump was only 10 points behind him and they'd be splitting many of the same votes.
2. In a Trump vs. Hillary matchup, I'm not sure Ohio will be enough...
3. Do you think  Kasich would want to do this?

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #672 on: March 19, 2016, 11:26:05 PM »
1. I said could definitely.
2. Maybe, maybe not.
3. It was an example. "Same goes for someone popular in any swing state."

FL and/or OH going "I" could definitely put the Presidency into Paul Ryan's hands to decide.
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Offline David Smith

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #673 on: March 19, 2016, 11:28:19 PM »
I doubt it'll be relevant.

With so many big winner-take-all states coming up, and with Kasich/Cruz splitting the mainstream republican vote, this nomination is Trump's to lose.

Even if a strong third-party candidate enters the race, it needs to be a candidate strong enough to outright win several states (away from both sides). Who do you think you be able to do that?
+1. A third party Republican splitting the vote will hand enough winner take all states to Clinton for her to walk away with a clear victory, according to election history.
Who do you think you are fooling? You think you are going to pull a quick one on your Creator? Good luck with that.
JTZ

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #674 on: March 19, 2016, 11:31:41 PM »
+1. A third party Republican splitting the vote will hand enough winner take all states to Clinton for her to walk away with a clear victory, according to election history.
Except that for all you know Trump could take NY and other states where Rs don't normally compete. The rules are going out the window in this cycle.
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Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #675 on: March 19, 2016, 11:35:52 PM »

Except that for all you know Trump could take NY and other states where Rs don't normally compete. The rules are going out the window in this cycle.

+1 at rules changing, but if you think trump will be within 10 points in NY you're deluding yourself.

IMO the 3p candidates with broad enough cross party support to cause an election to go to the house wouldn't be willing to potentially hand the presidency to trump.

Offline David Smith

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #676 on: March 19, 2016, 11:36:47 PM »
Except that for all you know Trump could take NY and other states where Rs don't normally compete. The rules are going out the window in this cycle.
I would say that Trump taking NY with a third party Republican in the picture is exceedingly unlikely, but this is an unpredictable election. Trump's appeal or repulsiveness transcends party lines.
Who do you think you are fooling? You think you are going to pull a quick one on your Creator? Good luck with that.
JTZ

Offline EJB

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GOP Master thread
« Reply #677 on: March 19, 2016, 11:41:43 PM »
I would say that Trump taking NY with a third party Republican in the picture is exceedingly unlikely, but this is an unpredictable election. Trump's appeal or repulsiveness transcends party lines.

The same recent poll that has him (literally) smashing the gop competition in NY has him losing by 20 there in the general. That's without a 3p candidate.

Offline David Smith

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #678 on: March 19, 2016, 11:45:27 PM »
The same recent poll that has him (literally) smashing the gop competition in NY has him losing by 20 there in the general. That's without a 3p candidate.
That's the logical outcome at this point. This is beyond logic, though. The polls thus far haven't been so accurate.
Who do you think you are fooling? You think you are going to pull a quick one on your Creator? Good luck with that.
JTZ

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #679 on: March 19, 2016, 11:51:28 PM »
Polls also showed both the D and R primaries in OH being nail-biters.
So much for that.
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