The Future of Lakewood

[jye]

[YitzyS]

I'm not a major expert, but I would rather be in Schnall's shoes right now.

60 percent of Monmouth in, but only 2 districts in Lakewood

[shapsam]

Interesting to see how in Monmouth it's almost all long party lines and in Ocean the exact opposite.

[jye]

Regressed to 62% counted?

[dealfinder11]

so far the early surprise - and encouraging sign for Schnall - was Monmouth early vote coming in at almost 50/50. Schnall was hoping for a 2/1 loss. One of those early variables that was hard to predict.

[torashaman]

im guessing that the difference between keen and thomson is basically guaranteed that its a jewish vote

[YitzyS]

Seems more and more likely of a Schnall sweep, but I'm not an expert enough to call it. With 82 percent of Monmouth districts reporting, and only 2 of Lakewood's 43 reporting, Schnall is STILL in the lead!

[dealfinder11]

Seems more and more likely of a Schnall sweep, but I'm not an expert enough to call it. With 82 percent of Monmouth districts reporting, and only 2 of Lakewood's 43 reporting, Schnall is STILL in the lead!

Bear in mind - That is 82 percent of counties reporting some votes. Not all their votes. Encouraging but still a long way to go.

[ari3]

Interesting to see how in Monmouth it's almost all long party lines and in Ocean the exact opposite.

wouldn't that be expected?

Interesting that in monmouth Schnall has only a few hundred votes less than the other democrat.

[YitzyS]

Bear in mind - That is 82 percent of counties reporting some votes. Not all their votes. Encouraging but still a long way to go.

They only report after they finish counting. (Besides for votes that come in the mail tomorrow)

[shapsam]

For some context, what were the total amount of votes for Monmouth and Ocean by the last election?

[YitzyS]

For some context, what were the total amount of votes for Monmouth and Ocean by the last election?

In the last Assembly election, the Republicans won with roughly 40,000 votes to the Democrats' roughly 14.5k. That is a surplus of about 25.5k. (I adjusted these numbers based on the new districts, since they were redistricted since last election.) In Lakewood, about 16.5k voters voted Republican. If you flip every one, that is a flip of 33k, much more than the 25.5k needed last time. Obviously, you are not flipping all, but if he flips most, plus a few other factors they are banking on (like getting more Dems to come out since they finally have a chance, and maximizing turnout in Lakewood through all sorts of ways), then he has a serious shot.

Obviously, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but he definitely seems to have a shot.

[aygart]

Also note that the Lakewoood districts reporting are almost all in the senior developments Leisure Village and The Fairways

[Euclid]

Also note that the Lakewoood districts reporting are almost all in the senior developments Leisure Village and The Fairways

My district voted in a senior development (A Country Place). I don't think it's indicative of anything - they just used the clubhouses as voting facilities

[YitzyS]

I am officially calling it. Schnall beat Thomson, and will be our next Assemblyman. Daas Torah triumphed.

[jye]

[gns]

btw i was the last to vote in the river ave fire station

ps the employees are super nice wow maybe we can get them to the DMV

[aygart]

My district voted in a senior development (A Country Place). I don't think it's indicative of anything - they just used the clubhouses as voting facilities

ACP is not its own district. Leisure Village and the Fairways are.

Either way, Schnall is up by about 500 with Monmouth all in so this looks like it won't even be close.

[YitzyS]

Monmouth is at 100 reporting for the precincts in District 30. Only half of Lakewood reported. Schnall is LEADING, which is shocking. That means probably a landslide.

[shapsam]

WOW!