The Future of Lakewood

[torashaman]

Turnout in Monmouth was much lower than they expected. If Schnall ignores them and gives them some fire to vote next time, they can vote in much bigger numbers. At the same time, the fire in Lakewood can die down next time.

I hear that.
I just checked the numbers and in 2021 (gubernatorial elections), Thomson got 30k votes in Monmouth.
As opposed to only 14.5k in this election.
So next time theres a big election on the ballot basically imposibble for Schnall to win again, seeing as ppl just vote Republican down the line.
Unless he somehow does an amzing job in Monmouth, which i dont see happening.
Or if hes doing really well - visibly - for Lakewood, and turnout in lakewood goes up to 75-80%

Basically would be along shot next time theres a hot election on the ballot.

[avromie7]

I hear that.
I just checked the numbers and in 2021 (gubernatorial elections), Thomson got 30k votes in Monmouth.
As opposed to only 14.5k in this election.
So next time theres a big election on the ballot basically imposibble for Schnall to win again, seeing as ppl just vote Republican down the line.
Unless he somehow does an amzing job in Monmouth, which i dont see happening.
Or if hes doing really well - visibly - for Lakewood, and turnout in lakewood goes up to 75-80%

Basically would be along shot next time theres a hot election on the ballot.

Schnall won Lakewood by 19.5k votes, and lost Monmouth County by 8.1k. A large turnout on Monmouth County would definitely make it more difficult, but still a very solid shot. He will definitely need to push voters to come out again next time.

[ari3]

I hear that.
I just checked the numbers and in 2021 (gubernatorial elections), Thomson got 30k votes in Monmouth.
As opposed to only 14.5k in this election.
So next time theres a big election on the ballot basically imposibble for Schnall to win again, seeing as ppl just vote Republican down the line.
Unless he somehow does an amzing job in Monmouth, which i dont see happening.
Or if hes doing really well - visibly - for Lakewood, and turnout in lakewood goes up to 75-80%

Basically would be along shot next time theres a hot election on the ballot.

a few points
1) The districts changed since 2021. Are you using the numbers from the old district?
2) A competitive governors race will drive up turnout both in Lakewood (especially if the vaad endorses a Democrat) and out of Lakewood.
3) As an incumbent Schnall will have a record to campaign on. That is relevant both in Lakewood and out of Lakewood.
4) The anti Schnall people will lose one of  their main taanos next time around as he will be the incumbent (although I am sure they will think of some other reason it may not fly with the voters)
5) The PR machine/ Daas torah/gevald  campaign won't be able to pull in nearly as many votes next time as people tire from these shpiels.

[iwlw2]

with the numbers from this election if every single vote in Howell went to Thomson, Thomson would have won by a grand total of 1000 votes.
Doesnt seem like much of a threat.

And don't forget that more and more of Lakewood is moving into Howell every day.....

[JMHO]

I hear that.
I just checked the numbers and in 2021 (gubernatorial elections), Thomson got 30k votes in Monmouth.
As opposed to only 14.5k in this election.
So next time theres a big election on the ballot basically imposibble for Schnall to win again, seeing as ppl just vote Republican down the line.
Unless he somehow does an amzing job in Monmouth, which i dont see happening.
Or if hes doing really well - visibly - for Lakewood, and turnout in lakewood goes up to 75-80%

Basically would be along shot next time theres a hot election on the ballot.

Two points:
Over HALF of Lakewood didn't vote in this election.
He's an incumbent and a lot is up to him now...

[iwlw2]

Two points:
Over HALF of Lakewood didn't vote in this election.
He's an incumbent and a lot is up to him now...

Wouldnt you think that whatever the turnout was is pretty much the ceiling for what would come out in Lakewood? If with all the noise and robocalls and rabbonim/RY Daas Torah etc., not to mention pie in the sky promises of what would come our way if only we voted for AS, only got this any people to take the time and make the effort, you can pretty much write off anyone else from ever voting, no? And as far as what he accomplishes as an incumbent, while I agree he can increase his "base" that would vote for him without needing as much of a kick in the pants, I doubt it would meaningfully impact the non-voters from this cycle. By the same token, given the play this race got in the local Lakewood market, I doubt even a major presidential election would meaningfully increase the turnout, although it might increase slightly overall.

[bochur22]

Wouldnt you think that whatever the turnout was is pretty much the ceiling for what would come out in Lakewood? If with all the noise and robocalls and rabbonim/RY Daas Torah etc., not to mention pie in the sky promises of what would come our way if only we voted for AS, only got this any people to take the time and make the effort, you can pretty much write off anyone else from ever voting, no? And as far as what he accomplishes as an incumbent, while I agree he can increase his "base" that would vote for him without needing as much of a kick in the pants, I doubt it would meaningfully impact the non-voters from this cycle. By the same token, given the play this race got in the local Lakewood market, I doubt even a major presidential election would meaningfully increase the turnout, although it might increase slightly overall.

Well, once people are turning out they can vote for him. In 2020, turnout in Lakewood was 71%, so the turnout can get a lot higher.

[JMHO]

Wouldnt you think that whatever the turnout was is pretty much the ceiling for what would come out in Lakewood? If with all the noise and robocalls and rabbonim/RY Daas Torah etc., not to mention pie in the sky promises of what would come our way if only we voted for AS, only got this any people to take the time and make the effort, you can pretty much write off anyone else from ever voting, no? And as far as what he accomplishes as an incumbent, while I agree he can increase his "base" that would vote for him without needing as much of a kick in the pants, I doubt it would meaningfully impact the non-voters from this cycle. By the same token, given the play this race got in the local Lakewood market, I doubt even a major presidential election would meaningfully increase the turnout, although it might increase slightly overall.

No. Why can't it be 100%?

[iwlw2]

No. Why can't it be 100%?

It certainly could, and I don't know why more people don't vote, but do you think it is likely to ever be 100%? And if if were to be likely would it not have been so or close to it in this election? I may stand corrected though about it not going much higher than it did this time in a presidential election, according to the number quoted above that 71% turned out in 2020, sadly it seems people were more motivated to show their dedication to Trump (in an almost certain losing effort in NJ) than they were to vote according to Daas Torah in this cycle.....

[JMHO]

It certainly could, and I don't know why more people don't vote, but do you think it is likely to ever be 100%? And if if were to be likely would it not have been so or close to it in this election? I may stand corrected though about it not going much higher than it did this time in a presidential election, according to the number quoted above that 71% turned out in 2020, sadly it seems people were more motivated to show their dedication to Trump (in an almost certain losing effort in NJ) than they were to vote according to Daas Torah in this cycle.....

Nebach...

[whacked1]

It certainly could, and I don't know why more people don't vote, but do you think it is likely to ever be 100%? And if if were to be likely would it not have been so or close to it in this election? I may stand corrected though about it not going much higher than it did this time in a presidential election, according to the number quoted above that 71% turned out in 2020, sadly it seems people were more motivated to show their dedication to Trump (in an almost certain losing effort in NJ) than they were to vote according to Daas Torah in this cycle.....

perhaps they foresaw the future kol koreis coming out of said daas torah

[torashaman]

The reason why so many ppl dont vote is bec basically the "daas torah"/vaad candidates have bben in charge for decades and have done very little for the average person in Lakewood. If Schnall is somehow different, I could easily see a major turnout that blows this one out of the water.

[knowitall]

The reason why so many ppl dont vote is bec basically the "daas torah"/vaad candidates have bben in charge for decades and have done very little for the average person in Lakewood. If Schnall is somehow different, I could easily see a major turnout that blows this one out of the water.

We do need to differentiate between local city elections and county/state.
With all due respect to Rabbanim, we've seen the Vaad's candidates hand out plenty of tax abatements to developers. They are essentially stealing from the average family in Lakewood and lining the pockets of a select few developers. It's mind boggling that there's still a massive voting bloc that will follow the Vaad, even to their own detriment.

[S209]

If you listen to them - it sounds more like a religous cheshbon. As i said, sick irony.

Someone told me he went to vote for Avi but just couldn’t bring himself to vote D. Unreal.

[JMHO]

The reason why so many ppl dont vote is bec basically the "daas torah"/vaad candidates have bben in charge for decades and have done very little for the average person in Lakewood. If Schnall is somehow different, I could easily see a major turnout that blows this one out of the water.

Shtusim. So vote for the other candidates.
People are just lazy, selfish and dumb.

[WayBackMachine]

the idea of a voting block is that you can use one issue to buy a block of votes since they all share the same values,
and it's not about forcing everyone to vote for someone you chose,

if they're doing such a great job they shouldnt even need to come on to the Daas torah to convince people to vote even when they have the backing from all Rosh Hayeshivas.

[torashaman]

Shtusim. So vote for the other candidates.
People are just lazy, selfish and dumb.

wow not sure why youre so worked up.
most ppl are not interested in going against the Vaad/Rabbanim. And dont really think theres a chance they'd lose. And arent convinced the othere candidates would be better.
Of course laziness comes into the equation, but only because they dont feel like they have anything to gain.
Dumb is a better adjective for ppl who keep following the Vaad after repeatedly getting screwed over year after year after year.

[JMHO]

wow not sure why youre so worked up.
most ppl are not interested in going against the Vaad/Rabbanim. And dont really think theres a chance they'd lose. And arent convinced the othere candidates would be better.
Of course laziness comes into the equation, but only because they dont feel like they have anything to gain.
Dumb is a better adjective for ppl who keep following the Vaad after repeatedly getting screwed over year after year after year.

You can use whatever adjective you'd like. People just like to kvetch and don't vote. Their loss...oh well

[MoYS]

You can use whatever adjective you'd like. People just like to kvetch and don't vote. Their loss...oh well

Yup
Most people I speak to have zero interest in voting, not as a thought out position just indefference. They do enjoy complaining, as a sport, not a call to action.

[whacked1]

Question regarding the last bunch of posts, if daas torah says to vote for the candidate, that should be it! Period. If daas torah says go vote, you must. Full stop. If said candidate is pro-development, that must be what daas torah wants.

What am i missing here?