From speaking to (what in my limited experience I consider to be) quality candidates it appears it’s very hard for them to land a good job in Lakewood and many of them settle for other grades or caliber schools than they prefer and feel they should be getting because of the massive pool of candidates and limited amount of openings. Only a few classes open each year in town, and even fewer Rebbeim retire.
It’s possible Aish Dos’ enrollment lowered because people don’t want to join a crowded field where they aren’t guaranteed a job. Then again, it’s possible my anecdotal information is wrong.
This debate sort of hinges on the definition of “quality” and how much a salary increase or push to leave Kollel for lack of funds would affect that pool.
There are a few points to keep in mind:
1) For every job that opens in a mainstream, sought-after cheder, there are 5 in less exciting situations. All places deserve quality rebbeim, and just because a quality rebbi didn't get a job offer in a great place, doesn't mean that there are too many candidates.
2) Just because someone appears to be a quality candidate, it doesn't mean they have all the qualities needed to be a superstar. In general, a small percentage of each "class" of new rebbeim will become superstars, many will be great rebbeim, and many will be mediocre rebbeim. You may be right that some are hesitant to enter "an overcrowded field", but the bottom line is that there will be less "great" and "superstar" rebbeim because less people are motivated to enter the field.
I know a number of people who are trying to enter the chinuch field, and many of them lack some of the natural talents to be a great rebbi. They may become seasoned over time, but mosdos always look for top candidates, because it's a multi-decade position that will impact hundreds or thousands of children. So yes, many candidates have a hard time landing a job, but at the same time, there is a shortage of "quality" rebbeim.
3) The increased kollel check could be a factor, even if it's not the only factor. I've heard that Rav Elya Brudny said that the stimulus checks were a factor for some people not feeling the push to leave yeshiva and enter chinuch.
5) Did you notice that there was no number 4? If you didn't, how will you be sure that no talmidim fall through the cracks?
6) Number six was something that was better left unsaid, so I left it that way.