Author Topic: The Future of Lakewood  (Read 553466 times)

Offline liosac

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3720 on: October 22, 2023, 03:19:37 AM »
Avi has no chance.

It's still very important to support him.
If the experts within and outside the community that were consulted thought there was no chance they would not have put him up.

Offline aygart

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3721 on: October 22, 2023, 11:10:37 AM »
If the experts within and outside the community that were consulted thought there was no chance they would not have put him up.

Unless they felt it is a win even if he loses. Even if they do, how much confidence do you have in these experts? How much campaigning have you seen from him outside of the Jewish community?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3722 on: October 22, 2023, 12:14:13 PM »
Unless they felt it is a win even if he loses. Even if they do, how much confidence do you have in these experts? How much campaigning have you seen from him outside of the Jewish community?

-1. Even analyzing this super critically, Avi has at least a 40% chance of winning. I personally think it's 50/50. He obviously has some challenges, however getting the frum vote neutralizes all of them. It ultimately comes down to the percentage and volume of the frum vote that he will get.


Offline avromie7

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3723 on: October 22, 2023, 12:40:01 PM »
I have a feeling the fact that Avi is running a tight race will bring out more of the vaad voters which in turn will make it much more difficult for HH in the township committee race.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline MarkS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3724 on: October 22, 2023, 12:42:23 PM »
Interestingly - Thompson who never did anything of note - now popped up trying to pass school vouchers.

The fact is - that electing Avi presents a very real and tangible path to school vouchers. 
He is not running because he wants to be a politician.  Hebwas asked to run by Askonim and Rabbonim as there is a real and tangible way to get this passed.

Online Euclid

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3725 on: October 22, 2023, 12:52:01 PM »
Interestingly - Thompson who never did anything of note - now popped up trying to pass school vouchers.

The fact is - that electing Avi presents a very real and tangible path to school vouchers. 
He is not running because he wants to be a politician.  Hebwas asked to run by Askonim and Rabbonim as there is a real and tangible way to get this passed.
Who does school vouchers help beside for school owners (and _maybe some_ rabbeim/teachers)? Why should that be a selling point for AS?

Offline MarkS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3726 on: October 22, 2023, 12:55:01 PM »
There is a mechanism for the bill to limit the schools ability to raise tuition

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3727 on: October 22, 2023, 12:55:24 PM »
Who does school vouchers help beside for school owners (and _maybe some_ rabbeim/teachers)? Why should that be a selling point for AS?

Why is this being perceived as a single issue vote?

Offline zh cohen

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3728 on: October 22, 2023, 01:53:52 PM »
school owners

Are schools in Lakewood for-profit orgs?

Online Euclid

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3729 on: October 22, 2023, 02:05:08 PM »
Are schools in Lakewood for-profit orgs?
Are they registered as 501c3? I believe so.

Do the owner(s) profit handsomely? I believe so.

Offline liosac

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3730 on: October 22, 2023, 02:20:23 PM »
Who does school vouchers help beside for school owners (and _maybe some_ rabbeim/teachers)? Why should that be a selling point for AS?
Bringing 100 million dollars or more to our mosdos wonít help our community? Iím not sure what school you send to but the head of my girls high school doesnít even take a salary. Even those that do have overcrowded classrooms and underpaid and therefore under qualified teachers relative to what is ideal. To think that all the money will go to stuff the mattress of the Roshei Mosdos is quite cynical.

Our schools are severely underfunded and even with a voucher program tuition is going to continue to be heavy lift and in some cases an unbearable burden but thereís no reason the make the perfect the enemy of the good.

Offline imayid2

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3731 on: October 22, 2023, 02:23:53 PM »
The fact is - that electing Avi presents a very real and tangible path to school vouchers. 
Technical point: Itís not school vouchers theyíre pushing for. Itís a tax credit system (which I donít fully understand).

Offline aygart

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3732 on: October 22, 2023, 03:24:47 PM »
-1. Even analyzing this super critically, Avi has at least a 40% chance of winning. I personally think it's 50/50. He obviously has some challenges, however getting the frum vote neutralizes all of them. It ultimately comes down to the percentage and volume of the frum vote that he will get.



What percentage vote and turnout do you think he needs in order to win with zero campaigning outside of the Jewish community?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Online YitzyS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3733 on: October 22, 2023, 04:09:31 PM »
What percentage vote and turnout do you think he needs in order to win with zero campaigning outside of the Jewish community?
I've been told that there are Democratic operatives trying to stir up votes outside the Jewish community.

Offline aygart

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3734 on: October 22, 2023, 04:35:35 PM »
I've been told that there are Democratic operatives trying to stir up votes outside the Jewish community.

I am sure they are, but the lack of any formal campaign and outreach is very strange.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Dawie

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3735 on: October 22, 2023, 04:40:34 PM »
@ Yitzy
Who is Deborah Fuentes and why her over Bruce Stern?

Online YitzyS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3736 on: October 22, 2023, 04:47:15 PM »
@ Yitzy
Who is Deborah Fuentes and why her over Bruce Stern?
I don't know. I think she is the wife of Hector Fuentes, who I think is on one of the boards.

I personally voted for Stern, as I've seen him a few times and he seems like a really decent guy.

Offline MarkS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3737 on: October 22, 2023, 05:00:17 PM »
Technical point: Itís not school vouchers theyíre pushing for. Itís a tax credit system (which I donít fully understand).
Its very simple.

Say a company has a tax bill to the State of NJ for $100,000. They can choose to instead donate it to a 501c3 and get a credit of $100,000 on their tax bill. Effectively paying the school.
 instead of the state.

NJ has a host of tax credit programs for various things so this is a commonly used approach when then money id deemed to be going toward the greater communal good.

There is now a fund with hundreds of millions,  and per the rules of the tax credits is earmarked to go to pay $10,000 per kid.


Offline MarkS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3738 on: October 22, 2023, 05:02:46 PM »
Here's  a list of tax credits that NJ currently has.

Billions of dollars go to various causes instead of to state coffers in an effort to promote film, culture, entertainment etc

https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/cbt-creditlist.shtml

Offline dealfinder11

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #3739 on: October 22, 2023, 05:39:47 PM »
What percentage vote and turnout do you think he needs in order to win with zero campaigning outside of the Jewish community?

In an extremely simplified manner - last election Thompson got 42k votes in Lakewood and Howell (combined), and the Dem got about 10k. The election was won by roughly 30k votes. So flip 15k and the election is Schnall. Very conceivable but much easier said than done. If the Lakewood community listens to the Moetzes and every influential Rav in Lakewood, I think Schnall will win. But that's the big if.