Author Topic: Should I Change My Itinerary?  (Read 8493 times)

Offline hvaces42

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #60 on: March 14, 2016, 07:12:23 PM »
So is it the position of those that are in favor of Dan changing his itinerary that, given the opportunity and the wherewithal, one should always reroute from Europe to Eastern US through FRA on LH F if available and one hasnt recently or ever experienced FCT and LH F?
Fair warning - Any PMs sent in response to forum posts are fair game for ridicule in public.

Offline AJK

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #61 on: March 14, 2016, 07:13:36 PM »
I'm honestly not taking the 50k into equation here, I've seen pictures of Dan's account balance... It's not breaking the bank

I told him this precisely.

But, hey, the longer he waits, the more likely someone else books the space and then he'll have made a decision by default, through inaction.
2015: 116K bkd | 1.6M brnd | F: OZ,NH,AA,EK | J: UA,CA,TK,DL,TN,AF,VA | LIH,NRT,ROR,PEK,CNS,BOB,MEL,TLV & Pacific Hopper

Offline EJB

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2016, 07:15:27 PM »
I'm honestly not taking the 50k into equation here, I've seen pictures of Dan's account balance... It's not breaking the bank

I hate when people make statements like this. Just because Dan has a lot of points doesn't mean each individual point is worth less. 52.5k points is still 52.5k points. If Dan values them at $700, the question is if the LH flight is worth more than 7 hours away from home + an extra fligth + $700. For AJK, I'd imagine the answer would be yes. For most people, I'd imagine the answer would be no. For Dan, that's up to him to decide.

Offline EJB

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #63 on: March 14, 2016, 07:16:07 PM »
So is it the position of those that are in favor of Dan changing his itinerary that, given the opportunity and the wherewithal, one should always reroute from Europe to Eastern US through FRA on LH F if available and one hasnt recently or ever experienced FCT and LH F?

???

Offline eliteflyer

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #64 on: March 14, 2016, 07:19:16 PM »
Just because Dan has a lot of points doesn't mean each individual point is worth less.
Many economists would dispute your marginal utility analysis.

Offline EJB

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #65 on: March 14, 2016, 07:21:20 PM »
Many economists would dispute your marginal utility analysis.

I don't think so in this instance. And besides, that would impact the value he places on the point, not whether the points have a value.

Offline AJK

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #66 on: March 14, 2016, 07:22:12 PM »
I hate when people make statements like this. Just because Dan has a lot of points doesn't mean each individual point is worth less. 52.5k points is still 52.5k points.

Wrong.

Your analysis begs two questions: 1) Miles are the same as dollars (they are not) and 2) Dan sells miles (he does not).

If a person has 109K UA and he needs 1K more for an LH award those 1K miles are worth X. If a person has 2 MM miles, he will not buy an additional 1K for X. The number will be <X.

There is a diminishing value to points, and that value becomes correspondingly smaller the larger the balance one has.

(In fact, many people would argue there is a diminishing utility even to cold, hard $$$. e.g. One will work very hard for his first million, but will work less hard for his 1,000th million.)

2015: 116K bkd | 1.6M brnd | F: OZ,NH,AA,EK | J: UA,CA,TK,DL,TN,AF,VA | LIH,NRT,ROR,PEK,CNS,BOB,MEL,TLV & Pacific Hopper

Offline Matovu

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #67 on: March 14, 2016, 07:24:49 PM »
Having been to FCT 2 months ago I voted to stay with UA

Offline EJB

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #68 on: March 14, 2016, 07:25:55 PM »
Wrong.

Miles aren't dollars.

If a person has 109K UA and he needs 1K more for an LH award those 1K miles are worth X. If a person has 2 MM miles, he will not buy an additional 1K for X. The number will be <X.

There is a diminishing value to points, and that value becomes correspondingly smaller the larger the balance one has.

All of that would impact the value he places on his points, not whether the points have a value that should be considered here. Maybe for me it's 1.4, for Dan it's 1.1, and for you it's 0.5. They still have a value.

Offline eliteflyer

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #69 on: March 14, 2016, 07:26:42 PM »
And besides, that would impact the value he places on the point, not whether the points have a value.
They are his points, so isn't that the relevant question?
Consider a rich man deciding whether to "splurge" an extra $1 on a luxury vs. non-luxury brand. The fact that the same $1 is worth more to a homeless guy looking for subway fare won't factor into the rich-man's decision because the marginal utility of $1 to him is less than the same $1 to the homeless guy.

Offline eliteflyer

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #70 on: March 14, 2016, 07:27:46 PM »
(In fact, many people would argue there is a diminishing utility even to cold, hard $$$. e.g. One will work very hard for his first million, but will work less hard for his 1,000th million.)
BINGO! Marginal utility applies to both.

Offline AJK

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #71 on: March 14, 2016, 07:29:25 PM »
All of that would impact the value he places on his points, not whether the points have a value that should be considered here. Maybe for me it's 1.4, for Dan it's 1.1, and for you it's 0.5. They still have a value.

Wrong.

Your analysis begs two questions: 1) Miles are the same as dollars (they are not) and 2) Dan sells miles (he does not).
2015: 116K bkd | 1.6M brnd | F: OZ,NH,AA,EK | J: UA,CA,TK,DL,TN,AF,VA | LIH,NRT,ROR,PEK,CNS,BOB,MEL,TLV & Pacific Hopper

Offline EJB

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #72 on: March 14, 2016, 07:31:09 PM »


Didn't know he doesn't sell. Regardless, he still places a value on his points, and 52.5k points is still likely several hundred bucks.

Offline benjie1305

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #73 on: March 14, 2016, 07:33:18 PM »
To me it seems that the question is how much he values his time. If the 2 itineraries were +- within an hour, no question he would opt for LH F. I personally chose more more mileage and connections vs direct flights to experience LH F and SQ R. Did it cost me a good 5-6 hours total? Yes. Did I think it was worth it for me considering it was my first trip flying in style? Yes. Now while it isn't a first for Dan, it does sound like 748 F is indeed for him. And to splurge a bit and be able to relax in one of the greatest "lounges" (Yes Matovu disagrees but it still was a great and fun experience to me and most others) while being solo and not shlepping kids does bring a nice well rounded ending to the trip; even if Dan is on Team #Outbound. And to not forget the last point, Dan is fully aware of all this and - TBQH - makes it quite evident that he would prefer the "crazy" routing via LH F but likes causing al the suspense and drama.  ::) :P
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Offline David Smith

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Re: Should I Change My Itinerary?
« Reply #74 on: March 14, 2016, 07:34:21 PM »
Are you trolling? I can't tell if you want people to take this comment seriously.

Are you deliberately implying the extension of this trip makes a difference to the point that he (or they) will remember getting back at 5 PM as opposed to 11 PM ... in ten years from now?
I didn't read Dan's question, the DDMS post, or what you were responding to. I was just responding to the advantage of traveling solo vs family.
Who do you think you are fooling? You think you are going to pull a quick one on your Creator? Good luck with that.
JTZ