Author Topic: Investing with an eye on the November Election  (Read 5575 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Investing with an eye on the November Election
« on: September 01, 2016, 05:07:38 PM »
I am contemplating possible stock market reactions to the elections.

I've drawn parallels between our election and the Brexit referendum, and I think that the market risk is similarly asymmetric (though I might be wrong - this isn't based on any research, just my feeling based on the mood I sense).

Regardless of who is better for the economy or the stock market (two totally different things), it seems to me that a Trump win would be met with a huge spike in volatility, whereas a Clinton win, regardless of how bad her economic or tax policies might be, is a signal of stability. There are obviously also specific industries which are perceived to be affected by each candidate's positions. Would be interesting to get feedback on which Lying Poison Pill has a perceived effect on which industry.
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Offline keetonfurther

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2016, 06:52:10 PM »
I know this is completely unrealistic, but I would love to do a historical analysis of how the x patterns for major stocks have changed when presidents similar to the candidates were elected. Obviously the results won't be 100% accurate as I don't believe we have had any candidates like the two we have now (3 if you count good ol Gary). However if we took presidents who ran on platforms that caused as much discussion as these two, we may be able to get a general idea. I could be completely and utterly wrong though  :)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2016, 08:37:42 AM »
I think at this stage it is appropriate to BUMP for discussion.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline churnbabychurn

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2016, 10:01:36 AM »
I think at this stage it is appropriate to BUMP for discussion.
I think the wide spread perception is that HRC has this in the bag already. The markets should already reflect this.

If DT does end up winning, the shock alone of his win would cause major volatility

Offline Freddie

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 10:28:15 AM »
Short sell your stock in trump for when he has his public meltdown after the election.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2016, 10:49:41 AM »
I think the wide spread perception is that HRC has this in the bag already. The markets should already reflect this.

If DT does end up winning, the shock alone of his win would cause major volatility
I agree that it is totally asymmetrical. I am not sure that a HRC win is priced into specific beneficiaries of her win (who are they?)

And as for the slim chance that DJT wins (less than 13% chance last I checked) are you saying go long volatility? What's an efficient way to do that?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2016, 10:50:43 AM »
Short sell your stock in trump for when he has his public meltdown after the election.
If anything, the time to take such a (hypothetical) position would be before the event.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline coralsnake

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2016, 10:56:58 AM »
If anything, the time to take such a (hypothetical) position would be before the event.
Thats exactly what he said.
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Offline avremie

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2016, 11:42:26 AM »
Hillary win might be bad for pharmaceuticals.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2016, 12:29:11 PM »
Thats exactly what he said.
You are correct. I missed one word when I read it.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2016, 12:31:44 PM »
Hillary win might be bad for pharmaceuticals.
Reasoning? Single payor? So are you saying this only about big pharma? Would investors transition more to biotech?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline avremie

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2016, 01:47:42 PM »
Reasoning? Single payor? So are you saying this only about big pharma? Would investors transition more to biotech?
because they will try to price cap expensive drugs. This is only my 2 cents and I have big in jnj & pfe.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2016, 03:30:46 PM »
because they will try to price cap expensive drugs. This is only my 2 cents and I have big in jnj & pfe.
So are you hedging with put options or are you moving to cash?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Offline churnbabychurn

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2016, 04:46:41 PM »

Offline ExGingi

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Investing with an eye on the November Election
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2016, 03:54:56 PM »
I just closed out some positions and moved them to cash.


I see the risk/reward here totally asymmetrical, as the market is expecting a Clinton win, and no major changes. If there's a surprise DJT win, I think we can see some big moves in currencies and international companies. Might be a buying opportunity then. I don't see we could see the inverse of that reaction for a Clinton win, so it's off the table for me now. (or on the table for certain positions).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan