EL AL to resume nonstop MIA-TLV service!

[Dan]

RDU-LHR for one on AA.

BOS-CDG on AA is another.

BOS and RDU were both large AA hubs and are still focus cities.

[Yaalili]

BOS and RDU were both large AA hubs and are still focus cities.

BOS seems to still be a focus city and CDG is only seasonal. RDU-LHR flight is year round and the only other destinations from RDU are to hubs. Hardly seems like a focus city now.

[Dan]

BOS seems to still be a focus city and CDG is only seasonal. RDU-LHR flight is year round and the only other destinations from RDU are to hubs. Hardly seems like a focus city now.

RDU-LHR is a subsidized route by IBM and GlaxoSmithKline. Been that way since the AA RDU hub closed. But it does still have some oddball AA flights like PIT.
So you just need to find someone to subsidize FLL-TLV

[efflpetzel]

Ok so I guess the MIA-TLV  question is on AA

[Dan]

Ok so I guess the MIA-TLV  question is on AA

AA already ruled out returning to TLV.

Really the only other viable US routes would be
TLV-ATL on DL (25:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-SFO on LY (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-IAD on UA (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-BWI on LY (15:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-ORD on LY or UA (3:1 odds of happening by 2018)

[Yaalili]

AA already ruled out returning to TLV.

Really the only other viable US routes would be
TLV-ATL on DL (25:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-SFO on LY (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-IAD on UA (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-BWI on LY (15:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-ORD on LY or UA (3:1 odds of happening by 2018)

And possibly LY to PHL and codeshare with AA for connections.

[Dan]

And possibly LY to PHL and codeshare with AA for connections.

35:1

[efflpetzel]

AA already ruled out returning to TLV.

Really the only other viable US routes would be
TLV-ATL on DL (25:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-SFO on LY (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-IAD on UA (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-BWI on LY (15:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-ORD on LY or UA (3:1 odds of happening by 2018)

Where's the TLV-IAD demand, or is it a feeder for connections

[ExGingi]

AA already ruled out returning to TLV.

Really the only other viable US routes would be
TLV-ATL on DL (25:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-SFO on LY (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-IAD on UA (20:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-BWI on LY (15:1 odds of happening by 2018)
TLV-ORD on LY or UA (3:1 odds of happening by 2018)

I agree with you 100% about ORD being the most likely next US gateway (though I have no idea where you picked the numbers for the odds). I sincerely hope it's UA and not LY.

I would add LY is most likely to start routes where AA or B6 have a hub.

[Dan]

Where's the TLV-IAD demand, or is it a feeder for connections

Jewish metro areas with 199K+ people:
NYC-Has flights
LA-Has flights
SoFlo-Will have flights
Chicago-3:1 odds due to largest population without a nonstop and very good connectivity UA hub
Philadelphia-35:1 due to the hub holder cancelling all TLV flights and due to close proximity to EWR
Baltimore/Washington-15:1 due to a decent population and a decent connectivity UA hub, hampered to do proximity of EWR hub.
Boston-Has flights
San Francisco Bay Area-Has flights
Atlanta-25:1 due to the hub holder shifting TLV flights to JFK

[Dan]

I agree with you 100% about ORD being the most likely next US gateway (though I have no idea where you picked the numbers for the odds). I sincerely hope it's UA and not LY.

I would add LY is most likely to start routes where AA or B6 have a hub.

AA hubs:
LY isn't adding flights to AAs CLT/DFW/PHX hubs, not enough O/D traffic.
DCA and LGA are restricted from longhaul flights.
PHL is a long shot as it's so close to EWR/JFK that locals will just drive there and due to AA claiming failure there.
JFK, LAX, and MIA will all be LY served.

B6 hubs:
BOS and JFK are LY served.
LGB is too close to LAX.
FLL is too close to MIA
MCO is not enough O/D traffic.

[Dan]

(though I have no idea where you picked the numbers for the odds).

Educated guesstimates.

[ExGingi]

AA hubs:
LY isn't adding flights to AAs CLT/DFW/PHX hubs, not enough O/D traffic.
DCA and LGA are restricted from longhaul flights.
PHL is a long shot as it's so close to EWR/JFK that locals will just drive there and due to AA claiming failure there.
JFK, LAX, and MIA will all be LY served.

B6 hubs:
BOS and JFK are LY served.
LGB is too close to LAX.
FLL is too close to MIA
MCO is not enough O/D traffic.

Which explains why the natural choice for LY was MIA. But I don't get how you give higher odds (not that it's very significant) to BWI, yes decent population size, but who are they going to team up  with for connections?

[12HRS]

Which explains why the natural choice for LY was MIA. But I don't get how you give higher odds (not that it's very significant) to BWI, yes decent population size, but who are they going to team up  with for connections?

WN 

[Dan]

WN 

They ought to.
Either way, 15:1 odds mean it's very unlikely to happen.

[David Smith]

FTFY

JFK/BOS-LHR probably has a bit of precedence over TLV.

[Yaalili]

Schedule for the flight.

[ad120]

Schedule for the flight.

Would have figured LY 17 would be a night flight. I guess not...

[a good yeshiva bachur]

What's B6

[mmgfarb]

What's B6

Jetblue.