Poll

Is Global warming real and are humans significantly contributing to it?

Not Real
9 (12.2%)
Real + Significant Human Contribution
19 (25.7%)
Real But No Significant Human Contribution
13 (17.6%)
Unsure
4 (5.4%)
It's a moot point everything is up to Hashem
29 (39.2%)

Total Members Voted: 74

Author Topic: global warming- what's your take?  (Read 42756 times)

Online avromie7

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I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Online aygart

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #161 on: July 15, 2021, 03:53:52 PM »
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/study-projects-a-surge-in-coastal-flooding-starting-in-2030s/
Quote
Why will cities on such widely separated coastlines begin to experience these higher rates of flooding at almost the same time? The main reason is a regular wobble in the Moon’s orbit that takes 18.6 years to complete. There’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble; it was first reported in 1728. What’s new is how one of the wobble’s effects on the Moon’s gravitational pull – the main cause of Earth’s tides – will combine with rising sea levels resulting from the planet’s warming.

In half of the Moon’s 18.6-year cycle, Earth’s regular daily tides are suppressed: High tides are lower than normal, and low tides are higher than normal. In the other half of the cycle, tides are amplified: High tides get higher, and low tides get lower. Global sea level rise pushes high tides in only one direction – higher. So half of the 18.6-year lunar cycle counteracts the effect of sea level rise on high tides, and the other half increases the effect.
There’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble; it was first reported in the gemara and the Jewish 19 year Lunasolar cycle
Fixed that for them.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Online aygart

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #162 on: July 15, 2021, 03:55:52 PM »
The never ending 12 year timeline.
This is coming from the moon
Feelings don't care about your facts

Online Yehuda57

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #163 on: July 15, 2021, 04:05:48 PM »
The never ending 12 year timeline.

Like the dad counting down to his kid

Offline Euclid

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #164 on: July 15, 2021, 04:10:26 PM »
There’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble; it was first reported in the gemara and the Jewish 19 year Lunasolar cycle
Fixed that for them.
They're coupling it with the rising ocean, which didn't exist in the times of the gemara (according to them anyways).

Online aygart

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #165 on: July 15, 2021, 04:11:59 PM »
They're coupling it with the rising ocean, which didn't exist in the times of the gemara (according to them anyways).
https://www.jpost.com/archaeology/israel-sea-level-rose-2-m-in-hellenistic-period-could-explain-decline-671173
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Offline Euclid

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Online aygart

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #167 on: July 15, 2021, 04:32:43 PM »
This isn't reassuring.
yet humanity survived.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Euclid

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #168 on: July 15, 2021, 04:37:55 PM »
yet humanity survived.
I'm less concerned about humanity than my own personal well-being.

Online Yehuda57

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #169 on: July 21, 2021, 05:28:20 PM »
Not about climate change, but about the other discussion about "scientific consensus".

https://www.city-journal.org/panic-pandemic

@S209 @biobook

I'm not posting it for the lockdown discussion itself, but for the way "dissenters" are bullied, discredited, and suppressed

Offline S209

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #170 on: July 21, 2021, 05:40:04 PM »
Not about climate change, but about the other discussion about "scientific consensus".

https://www.city-journal.org/panic-pandemic

@S209 @biobook

I'm not posting it for the lockdown discussion itself, but for the way "dissenters" are bullied, discredited, and suppressed
Another exceptionally long winded piece that doesn’t waste a paragraph before pulling out some of the most tired cliches about COVID.

I won’t be reading the rest of the article.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Online Yehuda57

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #171 on: July 21, 2021, 05:49:31 PM »
Another exceptionally long winded piece that doesn’t waste a paragraph before pulling out some of the most tired cliches about COVID.

I won’t be reading the rest of the article.

Your loss. Though I will say I was also skeptical after reading the first paragraphs, and only continued because it had been shared by someone I trust.

If you do read on, you may find the rest of the piece challenges the very foundation of how we got to a point where merely mentioning certain things gets your opinion tossed.

Online aygart

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #172 on: July 21, 2021, 05:52:43 PM »
Another exceptionally long winded piece that doesn’t waste a paragraph before pulling out some of the most tired cliches about COVID.

I won’t be reading the rest of the article.

A clear example of your being guilty of not even reading something because it uses a cliche you don't like and runs counter to your pre-existing opinion.

I will also use this opportunity to bump this question about the value of the truth coming out "eventually"
It is likely to eventually come to light, but after how long and after how many poor decisions were made? How do we know what stage of the game we are at once there is a level of suppression going on? Is the truth already in the light or will it still be another year? 5? 10? 100?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #173 on: July 21, 2021, 07:35:43 PM »
A clear example of your being guilty of not even reading something because it uses a cliche you don't like and runs counter to your pre-existing opinion.
Fact check: False. You’re assigning baseless causality without evidence.

ETA: I won’t read every article that comes my way, and one that is longer requires a more compelling reason to do so. I took a chance but came across the following tidbits in the first several paragraphs, which succeeded in convincing me that this isn’t going to be worth the read, and the author’s argument likely rests on false pretenses (similar to the last article posted here):

Quote
killed about one in 500 Americans—typically, a person over 75 suffering from other serious conditions

Quote
The second, and far more catastrophic, was a moral panic

Quote
They misled the public about the origins of the virus and the true risk that it posed. Ignoring their own carefully prepared plans for a pandemic, they claimed unprecedented powers to impose untested strategies, with terrible collateral damage. As evidence of their mistakes mounted, they stifled debate by vilifying dissenters, censoring criticism, and suppressing scientific research.

Quote
We still have no convincing evidence that the lockdowns saved lives, but lots of evidence that they have already cost lives and will prove deadlier in the long run than the virus itself.

I might take another stab because Yehuda57 is pushing hard, but your accusation is entirely without merit.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2021, 07:45:31 PM by S209 »
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Online Yehuda57

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #174 on: July 21, 2021, 07:41:51 PM »
Fact check: False. You’re assigning baseless causality without evidence.

Is that anything like calling a piece you didn't read "exceptionally long winded"?

Offline Ver hut gazugt

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #175 on: July 21, 2021, 07:44:47 PM »
Not about climate change, but about the other discussion about "scientific consensus".

https://www.city-journal.org/panic-pandemic

@S209 @biobook

I'm not posting it for the lockdown discussion itself, but for the way "dissenters" are bullied, discredited, and suppressed



Pretty crazy stuff. You would expect journalists to have some respect for scientist from top universities.

Offline S209

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #176 on: July 21, 2021, 07:46:34 PM »
Is that anything like calling a piece you didn't read "exceptionally long winded"?
I began the article. It is quite lengthy and the beginning was messy. It’s true that I didn’t read the whole thing but it’s 1,500 words long..
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Online aygart

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #177 on: July 21, 2021, 08:42:39 PM »
Fact check: False. You’re assigning baseless causality without evidence.

ETA: I won’t read every article that comes my way, and one that is longer requires a more compelling reason to do so. I took a chance but came across the following tidbits in the first several paragraphs, which succeeded in convincing me that this isn’t going to be worth the read, and the author’s argument likely rests on false pretenses (similar to the last article posted here):

I might take another stab because Yehuda57 is pushing hard, but your accusation is entirely without merit.
I would consider this post to be closer to proving than disproving what I wrote. (while the bump remains unaddressed)
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline biobook

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #178 on: July 21, 2021, 09:19:21 PM »
I began the article. It is quite lengthy and the beginning was messy. It’s true that I didn’t read the whole thing but it’s 1,500 words long..
Actually, it's 4,200 words, and I read the whole thing.  Not a fan.  Where do I start?

First, I know this wasn't your point, so I just want to say one thing about the lockdown discussion.  Instead of lockdowns, he says "The traditional strategy for dealing with pandemics was to isolate the infected and protect the most vulnerable." What other pandemics are you aware of where this so-called traditional strategy was used?  I've read a bit about the 1918 flu pandemic, which, like covid, killed about 675,000 Americans.  There was not an official stay-at-home lockdown, but different cities did institute bans on going out in groups, in an attempt to stop transmission.  "... Cities that adopted interventions early, held them in place longer and layered them together — for instance, closing schools, banning public gatherings and isolating sick residents — were more successful managing the epidemic and reducing fatalities."  So there was, in fact, evidence that this approach works better than simply isolating sick patients in the hospital.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html

With regard to "the way "dissenters" are bullied, discredited, and suppressed":  The only one I'll grant you is "discredited." Yes, they were discredited, because most of their colleagues thought they were spreading misinformation. But they were still able to work and to disseminate their ideas, so they weren't "suppressed."  They weren't persecuted or tormented - Having people disagree with you is not "bullying". 

The question is, when is it appropriate to discredit someone?  Scientists disagree with each other all the time, in the kind of back-and-forth that helps them sharpen their understanding of a problem.  They go back to the lab, come up with  more results, and try to create some consensus in their understanding.  But in this case, the research had practical implications, and the "dissenters" were not just offering a different interpretation for theoretical consideration, but were publicizing those interpretations as if they were facts, publicizing them not only to other scientists but to the general public who often had little understanding of science, and publicizing views that could potentially lead to unhealthy behaviors.  The "dissenters" weren't jailed and didn't lose their jobs, but other scientists did try to inform the public that the views of those "dissenters" were not accepted by the majority of scientists.

Online Yehuda57

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Re: global warming- what's your take?
« Reply #179 on: July 21, 2021, 09:23:14 PM »
Fact check: False. You’re assigning baseless causality without evidence.

ETA: I won’t read every article that comes my way, and one that is longer requires a more compelling reason to do so. I took a chance but came across the following tidbits in the first several paragraphs, which succeeded in convincing me that this isn’t going to be worth the read, and the author’s argument likely rests on false pretenses (similar to the last article posted here):

I might take another stab because Yehuda57 is pushing hard, but your accusation is entirely without merit.

LOL, I missed the ETA, which of the tidbits is false?

1) objectively true
2) up for debate, which is the purpose of the piece, hence using it in the intro
3) mostly objective truths, and the rest, see 2
4) see 2

You are proving the point. You aren't even allowed to question.

I began the article. It is quite lengthy and the beginning was messy. It’s true that I didn’t read the whole thing but it’s 1,500 words long..

Long /= long winded. Using that phrase discredited the piece without reading it.


You are under no obligation to read anything. You could have simply said, "thanks for the tag, I don't have time for such a long piece". But you quite succinctly proved the premise by discrediting it without reading it based on the intro contradicting your priors. Kudos.