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Quote from Cholent:

"If we believe we can't afford as a country to provide this benefit as it stands, then cut evenly across the board, or identify less at risk groups, like healthy adults, and cut them from the program. Cutting benefits from children from large families is a moral judgment that poor people should not have large families."
« Last edited by Baruch on May 24, 2017, 10:52:09 PM »

Author Topic: Budget to penalize large families!  (Read 23686 times)

Offline Dan

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #180 on: May 28, 2017, 12:24:16 AM »
I would leave out the part about no BC. According to the gemara and midrashim each time took quite an effort on the mothers part to get pregnant. Tachas hatapuach....
Might have taken quite an effort, but even if your numbers are off by 50% they still were incredibly fruitful.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #181 on: May 28, 2017, 12:26:17 AM »
Might have taken quite an effort, but even if your numbers are off by 50% they still were incredibly fruitful.
exactly. My calculation reached a number astounding enough that even after all the different mitigating factors they still make the same point.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline churnbabychurn

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #182 on: May 28, 2017, 10:18:12 AM »
Here is the accurate calc.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #183 on: May 28, 2017, 10:23:31 AM »

Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #184 on: May 28, 2017, 10:39:06 AM »


Here is the accurate calc.

The only real difference is that I used the total given by the mechilta according to the girsa of the GRA and he used a lower number. The basic calculation is the same.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline churnbabychurn

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #185 on: May 28, 2017, 10:40:41 AM »
TLDR?
600k males btwn ages 20-60
Approx another 600k in other age brackets. Total males 1.2mm

22k firstborn males into 1.2mm is approx 55 children per family.

Life expectancy in moshes time was 70 years. Assuming Max of ten pregnancies per mother in mitzrayim. Equals pretty much on the button 6 babies per pregnancy.



Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #186 on: May 28, 2017, 10:42:18 AM »


Life expectancy in moshes time was 70 years.
source?

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Offline churnbabychurn

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #187 on: May 28, 2017, 10:47:12 AM »
source?
Tfilas Moshe. Yemei shnoseinu shivim etc

Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #188 on: May 28, 2017, 11:08:39 AM »
Tfilas Moshe. Yemei shnoseinu shivim etc
I hear. Either way the gaon's girsa in the mechilta calculates 600k 20-60 600k above 60 and 600k below then doubles for women.
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Offline churnbabychurn

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #189 on: May 28, 2017, 11:10:32 AM »
I hear. Either way the gaon's girsa in the mechilta calculates 600k 20-60 600k above 60 and 600k below then doubles for women.
Link?

Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #190 on: May 28, 2017, 11:11:06 AM »
Link?
Can't get it now but plan on later.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #191 on: May 28, 2017, 11:21:47 AM »
My rov repeated a pshat this week that he's mentioned a few times before on וחמושים עלו .

4/5 died by מכת חושך. Hard to say those people's children died too. What happened to them? The remaining 1/5 adopted all the יתומים. So each family was like 5x what they should have been.

Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #192 on: May 28, 2017, 11:23:56 AM »
My rov repeated a pshat this week that he's mentioned a few times before on וחמושים עלו וכו'   4/5 died by מכת חושך. Hard to say those people's children died too. What happened to them? The remaining 1/5 adopted all the יתומים. So each family was like 5x what they should have been.
Why would bechorim have died at a significantly greater rate than non-bechors? Keep in mind that we are not diviidng by parents caring for children but by first-borns.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #193 on: May 28, 2017, 11:26:34 AM »
Why would bechorim have died at a significantly greater rate than non-bechors? Keep in mind that we are not diviidng by parents caring for children but by first-borns.
What does bechorim have to do with it? I'm not referring to the different versions of the calculations (haven't followed the whole conversation). Just simply adding an expansion of why the family sizes were so large, on top of the 6 or 60 per pregnancy.

Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #194 on: May 28, 2017, 11:29:59 AM »
What does bechorim have to do with it? I'm not referring to the different versions of the calculations (haven't followed the whole conversation). Just simply adding an expansion of why the family sizes were so large, on top of the 6 or 60 per pregnancy.
Every single calculation above was based on bechorim. Which version of the calculations are YOU referring to?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline gozalim

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #195 on: May 28, 2017, 03:35:40 PM »
I would leave out the part about no BC. According to the gemara and midrashim each time took quite an effort on the mothers part to get pregnant. Tachas hatapuach....
try government mandated BC. the reason tachas hatapuach was happening in the first place because pharaoh tried outlawing normal conception

Offline elit

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #196 on: May 28, 2017, 10:54:42 PM »
I made an interesting calculation this shabbos. The Mechilta in parshas Bo accordingt o the girsa of the GRA says that the 600,000 Jews counted calculates to a total of 3.6million including women, below 20 and above 60 years old. This weeks parsha says there were 22,000 bechorim. If we double that to account for first-born girls we are left with 44,000 families of siblings. THat calculates to an average of about 81 children per family.
the 22k bechorim are of all ages or only by. 20 and 60

Offline aygart

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #197 on: May 28, 2017, 10:58:25 PM »
the 22k bechorim are of all ages or only by. 20 and 60
from a month per pasuk
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Offline elit

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #198 on: May 28, 2017, 11:04:37 PM »
from a month per pasuk
thanks for dealing with my laziness

Online cholent

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Re: Budget to penalize large families!
« Reply #199 on: May 29, 2017, 12:31:26 AM »
from a month per pasuk
And of course that brings up another point. Some of those bechorim were very young (as young as a month) and didn't have more than 5 siblings yet. So the older families actually had way more than 81 children each.
Don't ask stupid questions and you won't get stupid answers