Pure guesses, no facts:
I think he fully intended to make a program and kept on hoping for enough signups to make it viable. (Confidence interval: 95%)
I don't think he phished himself or made the phishing website. (Confidence interval: 80%)
I don't have any idea whether he paid the phisher or not. (Confidence interval: 50%)
I don't think paying the phishing had any effect on the program, it was likely already dead by that point due to not paying the hotel anywhere close to what they expected. The hotel had most likely moved on by that point. (Confidence interval: 95%)
The phishing did make a good scapegoat though.