Author Topic: Forex, futures and stocks trading  (Read 80131 times)

Offline ExGingi

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Chapshnell

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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #182 on: March 30, 2020, 12:41:20 AM »
Explain in simple english please

Some varieties of US crude oil are seeing prices drop extremely low. One trading house is asking producers to pay them to take delivery of one specific type used for asphalt, as producers run out of storage space and demand has dropped with nowhere to ship or store the product.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #183 on: March 30, 2020, 12:42:50 AM »
The oil shock isn't over yet.
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Offline Baglach

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #184 on: March 30, 2020, 11:33:38 AM »
Would anyone buy Airline Stocks now?

Offline ExGingi

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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #186 on: March 30, 2020, 10:03:12 PM »
The oil shock isn't over yet.
Oil is a non-issue currently.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline aygart

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #187 on: March 30, 2020, 10:06:07 PM »
Oil is a non-issue currently.
Until the drillers all go bankrupt.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Shmobaum

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #188 on: March 31, 2020, 01:10:51 AM »
Would anyone buy Airline Stocks now?
Absolutely

Offline ExGingi

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Offline yos9694

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #190 on: April 03, 2020, 01:02:00 PM »
https://twitter.com/ErikSTownsend/status/1245984137040797696

It really does require explanation. Those facts are real and I agree with them. But they do not belong under the category of Oil Economics 101.

Oil Economics 101 would state that you don't extract oil if it costs you more to extract than to sell. It would state that there's a very limited time frame in which any actor could keep that up just to accomplish strategic goals. It would also state that the strategic goals are short term at best, since even if Russia puts Saudi Arabia out of business their oil is not drying up.

Oil Economics 201 would state an axiom that oil prices will always spike before long, because production is such a volatile business. If I were to fly a drone into that area prices would double. So no matter what the facts are, we know what the long term price trajectory is, as long as we can manage to stay solvent.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #191 on: April 03, 2020, 01:05:09 PM »
Oil Economics 201 would state an axiom that oil prices will always spike before long, because production is such a volatile business. If I were to fly a drone into that area prices would double. So no matter what the facts are, we know what the long term price trajectory is, as long as we can manage to stay solvent.

Ever heard the saying: "markets can remain irrational for longer than you stay solvent"? That might be Keynes 101.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline yos9694

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #192 on: April 03, 2020, 01:34:03 PM »
Ever heard the saying: "markets can remain irrational for longer than you stay solvent"? That might be Keynes 101.

That's what I was alluding to. The takeaway is that I - as an individual - would never bet against an irrational market. But I am 100% confident that the market price for oil will scream it's way back up before long. 99% chance that I get the timing wrong but the likelihood of the prediction coming true approaches 100% as you expand the timeframe of the bet.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #193 on: April 03, 2020, 01:52:18 PM »
That's what I was alluding to. The takeaway is that I - as an individual - would never bet against an irrational market. But I am 100% confident that the market price for oil will scream it's way back up before long. 99% chance that I get the timing wrong but the likelihood of the prediction coming true approaches 100% as you expand the timeframe of the bet.

Just because you’re right about it happening eventually doesn’t mean it’ll happen “before long”. The difference between those two is like to be more than 1% chance.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #194 on: April 03, 2020, 01:53:19 PM »
Just because you’re right about it happening eventually doesn’t mean it’ll happen “before long”. The difference between those two is like to be more than 1% chance.

And that is the meaning of:

Ever heard the saying: "markets can remain irrational for longer than you stay solvent"? That might be Keynes 101.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline AsherO

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #195 on: April 03, 2020, 02:14:34 PM »
And that is the meaning of:


The difference is that my OTnik brain can’t wrap itself around what you wrote.
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Offline yos9694

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #196 on: April 03, 2020, 04:06:22 PM »
Just because you’re right about it happening eventually doesn’t mean it’ll happen “before long”. The difference between those two is like to be more than 1% chance.

I see where you got 1% from my 99% and 100% but that's not what I meant. Before long is vague and we all agree that it's impossible to pin down how long. The quote that Exgingy brought just means that if you bet on it going back up in 6 months, there's a good chance it goes up in 6 months plus 1 day and you are then bankrupt.

I personally think it'll be back to $40-$50 by June, but I'd have to be stupid to put money on it.

Offline aygart

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #197 on: April 03, 2020, 06:19:33 PM »
Oil rigs can go offline very quickly. Many smaller drillers will go bankrupt but the weeks will still bee there. The larger companies will snap them up and let them sit
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #198 on: April 03, 2020, 06:33:53 PM »
The quote that Exgingy brought just means that if you bet on it going back up in 6 months, there's a good chance it goes up in 6 months plus 1 day and you are then bankrupt.

That is absolutely NOT what is meant by Keynes’ quote.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Zevwolf

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #199 on: April 19, 2020, 10:31:44 PM »
Crude Oil 15.63-2.64 (-14.45%) 20 year low.