Author Topic: Forex, futures and stocks trading  (Read 27772 times)

Offline LoLo

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #90 on: July 02, 2019, 04:39:37 PM »
Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.

Offline ludmila

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #91 on: July 02, 2019, 04:42:59 PM »
I saw somewhere today that 100% of traders are betting on a Fed rate cut on July 31st. (28% expecting a 50bps cut, and 72% expecting a 25% cut).

IDK, but this raises the contrarian emotions in me. Is there an easily tradeable way to profit by betting that the Fed doesn't cut rates on July 31st?
If they do not cut and hint at no cuts in the near future, these are the tradeable options , but I always need a chart confirmation
1. Long US $ vs other currencies. 2. Short stocks , like buying put options on the SPY ,QQQ etc 3. I would also think the precious metals will sell off too in such a scenario. Also TLT is an option

I think if this happens shorting stocks will be the best trade , as the market is EXTREMELY overbought, more than triple since the crash of 2009-2010.

Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.
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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #92 on: July 02, 2019, 04:43:45 PM »
Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.

There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #93 on: July 02, 2019, 04:48:00 PM »
If they do not cut and hint at no cuts in the near future, these are the tradeable options , but I always need a chart confirmation
1. Long US $ vs other currencies. 2. Short stocks , like buying put options on the SPY ,QQQ etc 3. I would also think the precious metals will sell off too in such a scenario. Also TLT is an option

I think if this happens shorting stocks will be the best trade , as the market is EXTREMELY overbought, more than triple since the crash of 2009-2010.

Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.

I am usually not a trader, and I'm long precious metals (through stocks and ETFs) as well as long-term Treasuries.

However, when 100% of people expect one thing, my senses say to me that there might be a profitable trade against such a consensus, but I am looking for a pure play on that specific outlook, not something that can be affected by other issues.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline LoLo

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #94 on: July 02, 2019, 04:55:04 PM »
There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.
Buy on the day of. market is usually fairly quiet until 2.

You can also trade interest rate swaps, don't know exactly how it works.

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #95 on: July 02, 2019, 05:00:38 PM »
Buy on the day of. market is usually fairly quiet until 2.

Sentiment might change by then. 100% to one side with just about a full month to go is insane IMHO (given many other factors, as well as opinions of well-respected veterans, such a Mohamed El-Erian).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ludmila

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #96 on: July 02, 2019, 05:23:54 PM »
Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.
+100 but ill not overload since the risk of losing all is possible.
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline ludmila

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #97 on: July 02, 2019, 05:25:23 PM »
There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.
USD$?
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline LoLo

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #98 on: July 02, 2019, 06:22:32 PM »
@ludmila where do you set your stops (non-trailing)? Fixed %, or where your theory for entering is invalidated?

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #99 on: July 02, 2019, 06:46:22 PM »
+100 but ill not overload since the risk of losing all is possible.

I think I might just buy some SPY puts. The combination of my contrarian interest rate bet, along with the overbought situation you're describing, make this sound like a decent strategy.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ludmila

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #100 on: July 02, 2019, 07:08:22 PM »
I think I might just buy some SPY puts. The combination of my contrarian interest rate bet, along with the overbought situation you're describing, make this sound like a decent strategy.
I might be joining in on the first signs of trouble :)
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline ludmila

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #101 on: July 02, 2019, 07:12:08 PM »
@ludmila where do you set your stops (non-trailing)? Fixed %, or where your theory for entering is invalidated?
I use pivot points on daily and or 4 hour charts chart as my stops. Once it is hit I am out , no hesitation.
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline LoLo

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #102 on: July 02, 2019, 07:13:03 PM »
Hit as in a wick or candle close?

Offline ludmila

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #103 on: July 02, 2019, 07:35:44 PM »
Hit as in a wick or candle close?This way I do not think or hesitate.
I was the Best,still the Best, and will always be the Best.
Pele Good,Maradona Better, George Best.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #104 on: July 02, 2019, 07:52:36 PM »
Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.
That was a really strong move after yesterday.
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