I saw somewhere today that 100% of traders are betting on a Fed rate cut on July 31st. (28% expecting a 50bps cut, and 72% expecting a 25% cut).
IDK, but this raises the contrarian emotions in me. Is there an easily tradeable way to profit by betting that the Fed doesn't cut rates on July 31st?
If they do not cut and hint at no cuts in the near future, these are the tradeable options , but I always need a chart confirmation
1. Long US $ vs other currencies. 2. Short stocks , like buying put options on the SPY ,QQQ etc 3. I would also think the precious metals will sell off too in such a scenario. Also TLT is an option
I think if this happens shorting stocks will be the best trade , as the market is EXTREMELY overbought, more than triple since the crash of 2009-2010.
Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.