Forex, futures and stocks trading

[ludmila]

What trading site do you use for bitcoins?
  I'm using the cash app which is extremely easy, not sure if the best place. But for now it seems to be working for me.

I trade BTC futures.

[myi]

I trade BTC futures.

Will take a peak tom. Wonder if they both have the same exchange rate?

[ludmila]

Will take a peak tom. Wonder if they both have the same exchange rate?

I covered my shorts with a very nice profit. I think BTC is very oversold here.I think either 10300 will hold, if not 9450.

[myi]

I covered my shorts with a very nice profit. I think BTC is very oversold here.I think either 10300 will hold, if not 9450.

Bitcoin is like a real yo-yo one day up 5,000 on some days down 6,000.
  I think I should do like you said as soon as I see a nice profit, I just take my money out, or set in advanced a mental stop like you recommended.

 When was up 13,000 I was ahead with a few dollars now I'm cutting even if I pull out.

[ludmila]

Bitcoin is like a real yo-yo one day up 5,000 on some days down 6,000.
  I think I should do like you said as soon as I see a nice profit, I just take my money out, or set in advanced a mental stop like you recommended.

 When was up 13,000 I was ahead with a few dollars now I'm cutting even if I pull out.

Correct. I use a system which is both technical and measures sentiment, learned this from the best trader ever who was featured in the Market Wizards book , we had to sign a nondisclosure never to reveal his methods, look at where I said in the previous low will the current bottom come, $10330, look at a chart, I pinned the exact bottom to the cent, the bottom was $1330, I went long futures there gain and I just got out with another big profit. The most important thing is to take profits when it is going your way and keep using a trailing stop to protect the profits, and to never let a loss get big enough to hurt.

[myi]

Correct. I use a system which is both technical and measures sentiment, learned this from the best trader ever who was featured in the Market Wizards book , we had to sign a nondisclosure never to reveal his methods, look at where I said in the previous low will the current bottom come, $10330, look at a chart, I pinned the exact bottom to the cent, the bottom was $1330, I went long futures there gain and I just got out with another big profit. The most important thing is to take profits when it is going your way and keep using a trailing stop to protect the profits, and to never let a loss get big enough to hurt.

Interesting, ay you should have warned me to pull out.

[ludmila]

Interesting, ay you should have warned me to pull out.

The problem is I trade short term, if you are in for longer term you might still see higher prices, as you said, BTC moves like crazy, scary!!

[myi]

The problem is I trade short term, if you are in for longer term you might still see higher prices, as you said, BTC moves like crazy, scary!!

When you do reach your trailing stop do you withdraw the funds and then wait for the stock to fall and invest again, wait for it to rise pullout, wait for it to fall and invest?

[ludmila]

When you do reach your trailing stop do you withdraw the funds and then wait for the stock to fall and invest again, wait for it to rise pullout, wait for it to fall and invest?

PM sent.

[ExGingi]

I saw somewhere today that 100% of traders are betting on a Fed rate cut on July 31st. (28% expecting a 50bps cut, and 72% expecting a 25% cut).

IDK, but this raises the contrarian emotions in me. Is there an easily tradeable way to profit by betting that the Fed doesn't cut rates on July 31st?

[LoLo]

Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.

[ludmila]

I saw somewhere today that 100% of traders are betting on a Fed rate cut on July 31st. (28% expecting a 50bps cut, and 72% expecting a 25% cut).

IDK, but this raises the contrarian emotions in me. Is there an easily tradeable way to profit by betting that the Fed doesn't cut rates on July 31st?

If they do not cut and hint at no cuts in the near future, these are the tradeable options , but I always need a chart confirmation
1. Long US $ vs other currencies. 2. Short stocks , like buying put options on the SPY ,QQQ etc 3. I would also think the precious metals will sell off too in such a scenario. Also TLT is an option

I think if this happens shorting stocks will be the best trade , as the market is EXTREMELY overbought, more than triple since the crash of 2009-2010.

Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.

[ExGingi]

Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.

There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.

[ExGingi]

If they do not cut and hint at no cuts in the near future, these are the tradeable options , but I always need a chart confirmation
1. Long US $ vs other currencies. 2. Short stocks , like buying put options on the SPY ,QQQ etc 3. I would also think the precious metals will sell off too in such a scenario. Also TLT is an option

I think if this happens shorting stocks will be the best trade , as the market is EXTREMELY overbought, more than triple since the crash of 2009-2010.

Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.

I am usually not a trader, and I'm long precious metals (through stocks and ETFs) as well as long-term Treasuries.

However, when 100% of people expect one thing, my senses say to me that there might be a profitable trade against such a consensus, but I am looking for a pure play on that specific outlook, not something that can be affected by other issues.

[LoLo]

There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.

Buy on the day of. market is usually fairly quiet until 2.

You can also trade interest rate swaps, don't know exactly how it works.

[ExGingi]

Buy on the day of. market is usually fairly quiet until 2.

Sentiment might change by then. 100% to one side with just about a full month to go is insane IMHO (given many other factors, as well as opinions of well-respected veterans, such a Mohamed El-Erian).

[ludmila]

Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.

+100 but ill not overload since the risk of losing all is possible.

[ludmila]

There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.

USD$?

[LoLo]

@ludmila where do you set your stops (non-trailing)? Fixed %, or where your theory for entering is invalidated?

[ExGingi]

+100 but ill not overload since the risk of losing all is possible.

I think I might just buy some SPY puts. The combination of my contrarian interest rate bet, along with the overbought situation you're describing, make this sound like a decent strategy.