Author Topic: Forex, futures and stocks trading  (Read 80135 times)

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive PlatinumŽ
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #161 on: January 06, 2020, 05:10:03 PM »
"Without a further escalation of Middle East tensions..."

Timing and intensity of which is anyone's guess.

The point of the article is looking at the overbought situation, and the likely price action in the NEAR FUTURE, absent an immediate event that could change everything.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive PlatinumŽ
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #162 on: March 01, 2020, 03:57:44 PM »
I didn't expect what we are currently seeing when I wrote that I believe US Treasuries are heading towards negative rates. I thought it would be more gradual. TLT and ZROZ are on a tear.

I might be wrong, but the way things are shaping up I would guess that the 10yr bond would go below 1.00% by the end of this week. 30 year bond will take a little longer to get to sub 1%, but I think it's on the horizon. At what point will the 10yr bond go to 0% or negative? Will the 30yr bond get there? Will we see massive scale refunding once rates go negative? It would save the US quite a bit in interest payments.

Bought some DUST on Friday to protect Gold related holdings.

I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive PlatinumŽ
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #163 on: March 03, 2020, 03:41:18 PM »
I didn't expect what we are currently seeing when I wrote that I believe US Treasuries are heading towards negative rates. I thought it would be more gradual. TLT and ZROZ are on a tear.

I might be wrong, but the way things are shaping up I would guess that the 10yr bond would go below 1.00% by the end of this week. 30 year bond will take a little longer to get to sub 1%, but I think it's on the horizon. At what point will the 10yr bond go to 0% or negative? Will the 30yr bond get there? Will we see massive scale refunding once rates go negative? It would save the US quite a bit in interest payments.

Bought some DUST on Friday to protect Gold related holdings.

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1234918656682803200

And while rates are dropping across the curve, to my unprofessional eye it seems like the 10-30 segment of the yield curve is steepening.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive PlatinumŽ
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #164 on: March 06, 2020, 02:05:38 PM »
Crazy moves in US Treasuries over the last 24 hours. I've had conviction that rates are heading much lower, but I guess I didn't have the guts to put more money into it than I did.

I'm now trying to think of it in actual number terms.

Here's where the 30 yr bond is now (source: Marketwatch.com):


Here are where some other sovereigns are:


So now I can plug in my numbers here and get to a price target.

If I think the yield is going to match the UK, so my price target is 136 1/32 for a ~16.25% upside.


If I think we match France, then my price target is $146 18/32 for a ~25.25% upside


If I think we're going to 0% yield then my price target is $160 for a ~36.75% upside.

Etc.

With significant gains already in, do I just pull the trigger on some more, or wait for a pullback. Do I go all in and get a leveraged ETF?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17404
  • Total likes: 14342
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #165 on: March 09, 2020, 10:17:26 AM »
Is there any simple way to take advantage when forward commodity strips are trading differently than the underlying months?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline davidd75

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jan 2012
  • Posts: 3875
  • Total likes: 120
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
  • Location: new jersey
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #166 on: March 12, 2020, 01:05:26 PM »
is it a pretty prudent and safe idea to switch my mutual funds to safer bond or cash holdings until the market volatility wanes?  At worst I don't capitalize on potential gains?

Online avromie7

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Feb 2014
  • Posts: 8188
  • Total likes: 2713
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #167 on: March 12, 2020, 02:03:57 PM »
is it a pretty prudent and safe idea to switch my mutual funds to safer bond or cash holdings until the market volatility wanes?  At worst I don't capitalize on potential gains?
At worst you miss the re-entry and you're stuck buying back at a higher price.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline davidd75

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jan 2012
  • Posts: 3875
  • Total likes: 120
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
  • Location: new jersey
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #168 on: March 12, 2020, 02:31:52 PM »
At worst you miss the re-entry and you're stuck buying back at a higher price.

so what are most people doing do you think switching over?

Online avromie7

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Feb 2014
  • Posts: 8188
  • Total likes: 2713
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #169 on: March 12, 2020, 05:45:13 PM »
so what are most people doing do you think switching over?
Anyone investing for the long term should just stay put and not fret over this. I have said many times (not on DDF), I invested in some of the most aggressive funds my 401k offers, and I know there is a big chance I will lose 1/2 of my portfolio in a market downturn but I have decades before I can begin withdrawing and I know I'll be much better off in the long term just taking the loses and the gains that come with that strategy.

ETA: I just checked, and it's down 17.63%YTD as of yesterday - 3/11/2020
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #170 on: March 12, 2020, 06:05:21 PM »
Anyone investing for the long term should just stay put and not fret over this.
Let me tell you a little story. When I bought my first insurance policy their sales pitch was, never in the history of the company did dividends ever decrease. It was 100% true. You want to guess what happened two years latter? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive PlatinumŽ
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #171 on: March 12, 2020, 06:19:37 PM »
Let me tell you a little story. When I bought my first insurance policy their sales pitch was, never in the history of the company did dividends ever decrease. It was 100% true. You want to guess what happened two years latter? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

The reason stock dividends historically exist and pay more than bond interest is precisely due to the inherent risks and the fact that dividends are NEVER guaranteed. The nice thing about some insurance policies is that some have strong guarnatees, and while they might not look that rosy when everything around is doing well, they sure look beautiful when everything all around is crumbling, one can't get any yield on safe money, and an insurance policy is providing guaranteed growth exceeding the safe money rates, and will usually also pay dividends (in the case of a participating whole life policy from a mutual company) as they have even at difficult times (such as world wars, pandemics, and financial distress). Those dividends are likely to be lower than what was illustrated when times were better, as the components that go into the dividend - investment returns, mortality experience, and company expenses, can change, but a properly capitalized insurance company will have no problem outperforming the guaranteed assumptions used to price the policy).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ltttc

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: May 2019
  • Posts: 673
  • Total likes: 133
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #172 on: March 12, 2020, 06:57:30 PM »
Let me tell you a little story. When I bought my first insurance policy their sales pitch was, never in the history of the company did dividends ever decrease. It was 100% true. You want to guess what happened two years latter? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Just curious - Would you suggest term over whole life taking into consideration the expense/benefit ratio?

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #173 on: March 12, 2020, 07:00:02 PM »
Just curious - Would you suggest term over whole life taking into consideration the expense/benefit ratio?
Wrong guy to ask. @ExGingi would be the one to ask.
I was just pointing out just because something has happened for the last 100 years does not mean it will continue to happen for the next 100 years.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline ltttc

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: May 2019
  • Posts: 673
  • Total likes: 133
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #174 on: March 12, 2020, 07:02:05 PM »
Wrong guy to ask. @ExGingi would be the one to ask.
I was just pointing out just because something has happened for the last 100 years does not mean it will continue to happen for the next 100 years.
A broker will always tell you how wonderful, no essential, whole life is  ;)

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #175 on: March 12, 2020, 07:06:25 PM »
A broker will always tell you how wonderful, no essential, whole life is  ;)
I hear ya. Back when I bought the policy I should have 1mm+ in CV today. This was based on the current dividend table at the time. I am embarrassed to say what the actual CV is today.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline ltttc

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: May 2019
  • Posts: 673
  • Total likes: 133
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #176 on: March 12, 2020, 07:10:12 PM »
I hear ya. Back when I bought the policy I should have 1mm+ in CV today. This was based on the current dividend table at the time. I am embarrassed to say what the actual CV is today.
Wow! I was told the same, fell for it and purchased. I just wonder if this is the game they're playing for decades. Also, I don't know why I'm constantly having people ask me the term vs whole life question, but I am wondering if term is the way to go. (My spouse and I have both)

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive PlatinumŽ
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #177 on: March 12, 2020, 07:17:00 PM »
I hear ya. Back when I bought the policy I should have 1mm+ in CV today. This was based on the current dividend table at the time. I am embarrassed to say what the actual CV is today.

Let me guess: Bank interest rates back then were in excess of 10%.

We've been in a bond supercycle since then. Just ask A. Gary Shilling. There will be inflation, and possibly hyperinflation in our future. How far out that might be, is anyone's guess. In the meantime, inflation has been coming down, and we are in a deflationary cycle right now (and COVID-19 is just accelerating that). But there are major imbalances that won't just resolve themselves without some kind of shock. There will be a great reset at some point, and things will be more logical and normal. In the meantime, we have to deal with the reality on the ground.

A broker will always tell you how wonderful, no essential, whole life is  ;)
Whole Life can be structured in a right or wrong way. It can be the right thing for some, and the wrong thing for others. For most people I know, a mix of Whole Life and Term to address their insurance needs is the right thing. For those sitting on hoards of cash and having a long life expectancy ahead of them, Whole Life is usually an extremely attractive option (especially in today's day and age when arbitrage can be used to leverage the cash value at a cost below the growth of the cash value).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive PlatinumŽ
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online Joel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: May 2018
  • Posts: 5120
  • Total likes: 1078
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 76
    • View Profile
  • Programs: Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Gold, IHG Platinum, National EE, Hertz PC, Enterprise Platinum, Avis PC
Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
« Reply #179 on: March 15, 2020, 04:18:27 PM »
Going to be a fun day tomorrow.