Crazy moves in US Treasuries over the last 24 hours. I've had conviction that rates are heading much lower, but I guess I didn't have the guts to put more money into it than I did.
I'm now trying to think of it in actual number terms.
Here's where the 30 yr bond is now (source: Marketwatch.com):
Here are where some other sovereigns are:
So now I can plug in my numbers
here and get to a price target.
If I think the yield is going to match the UK, so my price target is 136 1/32 for a ~16.25% upside.
If I think we match France, then my price target is $146 18/32 for a ~25.25% upside
If I think we're going to 0% yield then my price target is $160 for a ~36.75% upside.
Etc.
With significant gains already in, do I just pull the trigger on some more, or wait for a pullback. Do I go all in and get a leveraged ETF?