Author Topic: Another Antarctica Raffle!  (Read 22414 times)

Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #180 on: September 04, 2018, 02:08:43 PM »

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline MosheD

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #182 on: September 04, 2018, 02:18:09 PM »

Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #183 on: September 04, 2018, 02:18:23 PM »

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #184 on: September 04, 2018, 02:19:35 PM »
After as well  ;)?
Yup, to expensive for my taste.
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #185 on: September 04, 2018, 02:22:07 PM »
Yup, to expensive for my taste.

Def not worth it solely as a gamble. You get much better odds in vegas. At 600 + 100 tickets sold (best value) and 15k value from prize (which not all people will realize), $3600 will equate to $2143 in expected value. A loss of almost 50%. And that's before taxes :).

Offline whYME

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #186 on: September 04, 2018, 02:27:18 PM »
$3600 will equate to $2143 in expected value.
Can you explain that please for the non-actuaries here?

Offline EJB

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Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #187 on: September 04, 2018, 02:31:37 PM »
Can you explain that please for the non-actuaries here?
100/700 x 15k (Iím assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #188 on: September 04, 2018, 02:32:28 PM »
Def not worth it solely as a gamble. You get much better odds in vegas. At 600 + 100 tickets sold (best value) and 15k value from prize (which not all people will realize), $3600 will equate to $2143 in expected value. A loss of almost 50%. And that's before taxes :).
So you are saying a have a better chance of putting $79 on the pass line and let it ride until I get enough to go?  :)
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline Dan

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #189 on: September 04, 2018, 02:34:52 PM »
100/700 x 15k (Iím assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)
Should be x $18,295, no?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline EJB

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Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #190 on: September 04, 2018, 02:36:16 PM »
Should be x $18,295, no?
Should be whatever value you get from it. I used a rough number but you can use something else (such as MSRP). In reality many ppl in the raffle will value this closer to 10k. In any case, as a gamble itís a poor value.

Offline shimino1

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #191 on: September 04, 2018, 02:50:04 PM »
Can anyone do me a favor?
It turns out my credit card didn't go through so I don't have a ticket :(
I'm not going to have a browser in the next 10 minutes so can I pm someone my CC number and they will book for me?
Thanks!

Offline whYME

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #192 on: September 04, 2018, 02:51:41 PM »
100/700 x 15k (Iím assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)
ok, so I understand the math but I'm not sure I'm mekabel the reasoning in this case.

IIUC that's essentially saying if you run this ?? times the average return will be $2143?

Here there's only one shot at it and it's all or nothing. You're not actually expecting a return of $2142. I see it as simply improving your odds of a 15k prize from 1/600 to 1/7.

(Or are you saying in vegas you can get better odds at $15k for $3600?)

ETA: I guess I should've focused more on this part of your post:
Def not worth it solely as a gamble.
You're talking about a purely financial "investment" and I'm talking about an Antarctica raffle :)
« Last Edit: September 04, 2018, 03:09:18 PM by whYME »

Offline yossig

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #193 on: September 04, 2018, 02:58:06 PM »
Can anyone do me a favor?
It turns out my credit card didn't go through so I don't have a ticket :(
I'm not going to have a browser in the next 10 minutes so can I pm someone my CC number and they will book for me?
Thanks!
If you still havenít found anyone you can PM me your info and Iíll do it now

Offline whYME

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #194 on: September 04, 2018, 03:06:19 PM »
Writing up today's post.
Should we have:
1. Detailed breakdown of tickets bought so far

2. Comparison analysis of 1st vs 2nd raffle, but not as detailed.

Comment in the next half hour
I'm actually really curious about how many direct CC vs Paypal.

Offline shimino1

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #195 on: September 04, 2018, 03:11:15 PM »
If you still havenít found anyone you can PM me your info and Iíll do it now
Ended up with two tickets  ;D
Thanks!

Offline rollingstone

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #196 on: September 04, 2018, 03:12:29 PM »
Still able to buy?

Offline shimino1

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #197 on: September 04, 2018, 03:12:39 PM »
Can't believe this raffle has me sending my cc info to virtual strangers! FOMO much?

Offline davidrotts63

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #198 on: September 04, 2018, 03:14:02 PM »
I'm actually really curious about how many direct CC vs Paypal.
I'm curious how many people used an amex after last raffle failed them.
(Quit) pulling out the flowers, and watering the weeds. -Peter Lynch

Offline Dan

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #199 on: September 04, 2018, 03:17:04 PM »
Still able to buy?
As long as the form is up you can still buy.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.