Author Topic: Another Antarctica Raffle!  (Read 22416 times)

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #260 on: September 04, 2018, 06:03:14 PM »
So then how is losing ~19% per dollar good odds? And that's assuming a cash equivalent prize. If you value prize same as 15k cash, you're losing 1/3 per dollar.
I put 100 in video poker or WOF and walk away with nothing. I would say the raffle is a lot better odds.  :P
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Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #261 on: September 04, 2018, 06:04:34 PM »
I put 100 in video poker or WOF and walk away with nothing. I would say the raffle is a lot better odds.  :P

Then you don't know how odds work. And if you put 100 in a video poker that gave you 0 odds, then there are other things we should talk about :).

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #262 on: September 04, 2018, 06:08:18 PM »
Then you don't know how odds work. And if you put 100 in a video poker that gave you 0 odds, then there are other things we should talk about :).
We already been through this odds thing. Do I need to school you again?  :P
I didn't say the odds on VP were 0. What are my odds of multiplying my initial investment 5 fold on VP?
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Offline Deal Guy

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #263 on: September 04, 2018, 06:28:07 PM »
How many tickets were sold in the end, 749?

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #264 on: September 04, 2018, 06:28:59 PM »
739
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Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #265 on: September 04, 2018, 06:45:37 PM »
We already been through this odds thing. Do I need to school you again?  :P
I didn't say the odds on VP were 0. What are my odds of multiplying my initial investment 5 fold on VP?

I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.

Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964

Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420

Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?

Offline real-brisker

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #266 on: September 04, 2018, 06:45:59 PM »
What was the 635 and 710 about?

Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #267 on: September 04, 2018, 06:46:44 PM »
We already been through this odds thing. Do I need to school you again?  :P
I didn't say the odds on VP were 0. What are my odds of multiplying my initial investment 5 fold on VP?

To answer your question, it depends on the machine. There's no one answer. It is easier (and more appropriate in this context) to compare expected winnings.

Offline Dan

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Offline Chief Rabbi of New York

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #269 on: September 04, 2018, 06:54:07 PM »
What was the 635 and 710 about?

2 people bought the 120 ticket package
So they wanted to win twice

Or maybe the raffle was a set up in order to raise even more funds for the Antarctica lubavitch center ?
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Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #270 on: September 04, 2018, 06:54:53 PM »
I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.

Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964

Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420

Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?
You are missing the point. I need to turn my 3.6k into 18k+. I know what the odds are for the raffle. Now what are the odds playing VP? Do I need to explain this so a 1st grader can understand?  :)
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Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #271 on: September 04, 2018, 06:57:15 PM »
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Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #272 on: September 04, 2018, 07:03:55 PM »
You are missing the point. I need to turn my 3.6k into 18k+. I know what the odds are for the raffle. Now what are the odds playing VP? Do I need to explain this so a 1st grader can understand?  :)

You made a math error, so you are trying to justify by creating a hypothetical of an irrational investor making poor choices.

The only instance where you're math is right is if the investor had a wacky utility function showing a strong preference for exactly a 5x but little preference for any other return, including a 0-5x or >5x. But on purely an expected value basis (which is what my post referred to), you clearly come ahead on VP. Though I have no idea what the odds are on VP machines that accept such high wagers :)

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #273 on: September 04, 2018, 07:20:31 PM »
You made a math error, so you are trying to justify by creating a hypothetical of an irrational investor making poor choices.

The only instance where you're math is right is if the investor had a wacky utility function showing a strong preference for exactly a 5x but little preference for any other return, including a 0-5x or >5x. But on purely an expected value basis (which is what my post referred to), you clearly come ahead on VP. Though I have no idea what the odds are on VP machines that accept such high wagers :)
You can bet $1 on VP. What is my odds of turning my 3.6k into 18k+ before I run out of money (lose my 3.6k).

Your post I responded to was a "poor gamble". I took that mean as opposed to other gambles. I even asked you this?
So you are saying a have a better chance of putting $79 on the pass line and let it ride until I get enough to go?  :)
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Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #274 on: September 04, 2018, 07:26:36 PM »
You can bet $1 on VP. What is my odds of turning my 3.6k into 18k+ before I run out of money (lose my 3.6k).

Your post I responded to was a "poor gamble". I took that mean as opposed to other gambles. I even asked you this?

That's a silly question, but it's hard to say for sure without knowing the algorithms inside the VP machine. And regardless, you should be looking at expected payount and not a particular outcome. If you care solely about a particular outcome, compare to a game (e.g., roulette) when you can get exactly that outcome. At better odds (6 number combinations have ~16% payout probability)

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #275 on: September 04, 2018, 07:31:08 PM »
That's a silly question,
You are missing the whole point of a "poor gamble". You need to think in terms of a gambler. I have 3.6k and I want to see some penguins for 18k. Are my chances better to enter the raffle at a 5:1 or play VP until I reach 18k.
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Offline whYME

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #276 on: September 04, 2018, 07:34:04 PM »
You are missing the whole point of a "poor gamble". You need to think in terms of a gambler. I have 3.6k and I want to see some penguins for 18k. Are my chances better to enter the raffle at a 5:1 or play VP until I reach 18k.

100/700 x 15k (Iím assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)
ok, so I understand the math but I'm not sure I'm mekabel the reasoning in this case.

IIUC that's essentially saying if you run this ?? times the average return will be $2143?

Here there's only one shot at it and it's all or nothing. You're not actually expecting a return of $2142. I see it as simply improving your odds of a 15k prize from 1/600 to 1/7.

(Or are you saying in vegas you can get better odds at $15k for $3600?)

ETA: I guess I should've focused more on this part of your post:
Def not worth it solely as a gamble.
You're talking about a purely financial "investment" and I'm talking about an Antarctica raffle :)

Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #277 on: September 04, 2018, 07:57:50 PM »
You are missing the whole point of a "poor gamble". You need to think in terms of a gambler. I have 3.6k and I want to see some penguins for 18k. Are my chances better to enter the raffle at a 5:1 or play VP until I reach 18k.

You and I both don't know the specific probability of VP allowing you to reach 18k. But that's irrelevant - If you only care about one particular outcome, play roulette (European would pay out $21,600 at a 16.2% probability based on a $3,600 wager). You'd end up with $3,600 more at the same probability, and just like the raffle it is binary - you win it all or lose it all. Why wouldn't you want an equal chance of $3,600 more???

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #278 on: September 04, 2018, 08:05:04 PM »
You and I both don't know the specific probability of VP allowing you to reach 18k. But that's irrelevant - If you only care about one particular outcome, play roulette (European would pay out $21,600 at a 16.2% probability based on a $3,600 wager). You'd end up with $3,600 more at the same probability, and just like the raffle it is binary - you win it all or lose it all. Why wouldn't you want an equal chance of $3,600 more???
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!!  :)
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Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #279 on: September 04, 2018, 08:06:43 PM »
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!!  :)
Or in VP, using the $3600 a credit machine at the Venetian high limit slots