Author Topic: Another Antarctica Raffle!  (Read 22407 times)

Offline shmaya

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #280 on: September 04, 2018, 09:50:10 PM »
Thank you everyone for buying tickets and supporting our work out in hipster land.

Thank you @Dan and @EJB for your help.

I was unable to comment on what happened because of this:

https://www.facebook.com/chaimandmushka.wilhelm/videos/1099861436831287/?notif_id=1536101551022030&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic

It looks like everyone managed to sort it out  :)   

Offline Dr Moose

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #281 on: September 04, 2018, 10:06:01 PM »
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!!  :)
This conversation has me very confused. Why not just MS to $18k and call it a day?
Hey there! I am using DansDeals Forums.

Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #282 on: September 04, 2018, 10:09:56 PM »
This conversation has me very confused. Why not just MS to $18k and call it a day?
Donít do it w chase

Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #283 on: September 04, 2018, 10:10:22 PM »
Thank you everyone for buying tickets and supporting our work out in hipster land.

Thank you @Dan and @EJB for your help.

I was unable to comment on what happened because of this:

https://www.facebook.com/chaimandmushka.wilhelm/videos/1099861436831287/?notif_id=1536101551022030&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic

It looks like everyone managed to sort it out  :)   
Yashar koach to you and your chabad as well!

Offline boyozucker

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #284 on: September 04, 2018, 10:39:21 PM »


I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.

Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964

Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420

Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?
You assume only 120 tickets were purchased,:-)
(You are correct though)

In addition, the payout number radically changes when you factor tax write offs into the equation.



Offline EJB

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #285 on: September 04, 2018, 10:43:45 PM »
You assume only 120 tickets were purchased,:-)
(You are correct though)

In addition, the payout number radically changes when you factor tax write offs into the equation.

Congrats !

Tax hurts the equation. You canít deduct this as charity on your taxes, and you have to pay tax on winnings (aside for cost offset).

Offline 12HRS

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #286 on: September 04, 2018, 11:08:38 PM »
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!!  :)

Go back to work for 1 month. I assume if you do that would open up GC->MO there again which should allow you to cover the full amount of the trip without all this gambling.  :-X

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #287 on: September 04, 2018, 11:44:50 PM »
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!!  :)
Certain zoos have free days.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline 12HRS

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #288 on: September 04, 2018, 11:46:56 PM »
Certain zoos have free days.

I'm glad you aren't calling my yeshiva a zoo

Offline gingyguy

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #289 on: September 04, 2018, 11:47:47 PM »
Certain zoos have free days.
the days that those zoos are free you can usually get
chassidim and penguins
May you slide down the banister of happiness & get many splinters of success up your career.

Offline grodnoking

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #290 on: September 05, 2018, 03:24:57 AM »
Congrats !

Tax hurts the equation. You canít deduct this as charity on your taxes, and you have to pay tax on winnings (aside for cost offset).
But it's a business expense. He's going on the trip so he can ask Dan all his CC questions.
I'm not who you think I am.

Offline aro123

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #291 on: September 05, 2018, 09:33:27 AM »
You assume only 120 tickets were purchased,:-)
(You are correct though)

In addition, the payout number radically changes when you factor tax write offs into the equation.
what time did you buy them? why did you wait till the end?

Offline boyozucker

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #292 on: September 05, 2018, 09:35:28 AM »
4 minutes to 3pm .

Wanted to be certain about my odds.

Offline chulent613

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #293 on: September 05, 2018, 03:47:57 PM »
4 minutes to 3pm .

Wanted to be certain about my odds.

You bought it as an investment in order to resell if you won?

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #294 on: September 05, 2018, 03:49:48 PM »
You bought it as an investment in order to resell if you won?
Buy low, sell high!
I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #295 on: September 05, 2018, 04:10:25 PM »
You bought it as an investment in order to resell if you won?
Simple math: Win and sell - great ROI. Don't win - just made a charitable contribution.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline LoLo

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #296 on: September 05, 2018, 05:15:40 PM »
The only reason i justified my entry was that i can't really put a monetary value on something that's once in a lifetime, so while the return moneywise isn't great, the experience is, there are much better charity raffles for this entry price if you're after the cash.

Offline AussieMan

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #297 on: September 06, 2018, 10:28:24 PM »
I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.

Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964

Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420

Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?
How do these compare to these odds

https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/raffle-might-actually-win-join-mesivta-shaarei-adirims-chancex12-will-12-chances-win-10000/

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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I just found a new supply of forks!

Offline AussieMan

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Re: Another Antarctica Raffle!
« Reply #299 on: September 06, 2018, 10:45:31 PM »
Terrible odds.
Correct.
They have a whole advertising campaign about the great odds.
Meanwhile the expected payout is around $32 and ticket costs $432.