Author Topic: Mega millions $1.6BB  (Read 66392 times)

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #320 on: October 24, 2018, 06:21:36 PM »
The expected value of your ticket is much greater when the pot is $1.6BB vs $40MM.
In both cases it is nil.
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Offline Dan

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #321 on: October 24, 2018, 06:22:45 PM »
In both cases it is nil.
Odds of wining are nil, but expected value isn't.
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Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #322 on: October 24, 2018, 06:25:10 PM »
Odds of wining are nil, but expected value isn't.
Part of EV is the odds, no? So 1x0 or 1mmx0 is still nil.  :)
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Offline Lou Bob

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #323 on: October 24, 2018, 06:32:07 PM »
Play the pb. Much better odds  :D
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Offline Dan

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #324 on: October 24, 2018, 06:46:03 PM »
Part of EV is the odds, no? So 1x0 or 1mmx0 is still nil.  :)
Odds times prize. Hence why $40MM is a bad buy and $1.6BB is a decent buy.
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Offline farmbochur

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #325 on: October 24, 2018, 06:49:52 PM »
Odds times prize. Hence why $40MM is a bad buy and $1.6BB is a decent buy.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/mega-millions-jackpot-is-it-worth-buying-lottery-ticket-2018-10

This article shows positive expected value on last night's drawing, but it ignores taxes and multiple winners.
Risk is opportunity

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #326 on: October 24, 2018, 07:00:34 PM »
Odds times prize. Hence why $40MM is a bad buy and $1.6BB is a decent buy.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/mega-millions-jackpot-is-it-worth-buying-lottery-ticket-2018-10

This article shows positive expected value on last night's drawing, but it ignores taxes and multiple winners.
Basically expected value is negative. They are both bad buys with one being worse.
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #327 on: October 24, 2018, 07:18:28 PM »
Basically expected value is negative. They are both bad buys with one being worse.
There are also small prizes that prob that up a bit. You have a 1/24 chance of breaking even or better.

Offline 12HRS

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #328 on: October 24, 2018, 10:44:10 PM »
I mean if someone's dream is to just buy a retirement house and payoff debt and live comfortably with normal vacations sprinkled in, 12mm is fine.

Easy for that to be your dream when thats the only Hasogah you have. Get 12MM and see what your dreams change to then.

Offline justaregularguy

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #329 on: October 25, 2018, 01:38:43 AM »
The deadline to buy Mega Millions tickets in New York state is 10:45 p.m. ET on days when winning numbers are announced.
wow that’s amazing: I bought my ticket at 10:44:48!! One of the last ones to buy :D
(Id love to show a pic of it but the darn attachment is too karge >:(-seems to happen a lot with my phone for some reason)
nothings impossible- the word itself says Im possible

Offline rs242

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #330 on: October 25, 2018, 08:27:17 AM »
wow that’s amazing: I bought my ticket at 10:44:48!! One of the last ones to buy :D
(Id love to show a pic of it but the darn attachment is too karge >:(-seems to happen a lot with my phone for some reason)
This would only be amazing if u won.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #331 on: October 25, 2018, 09:42:44 AM »
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/25/us/group-invests-5-million-to-hedge-bets-in-lottery.html

I heard about this today on a podcast. They interviewed the head of the fund who said he bought all 7.1 million numbers. Apparently the math worked out then to do it.

Offline myi

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #332 on: October 25, 2018, 10:00:24 AM »
wow that’s amazing: I bought my ticket at 10:44:48!! One of the last ones to buy :D
(Id love to show a pic of it but the darn attachment is too karge >:(-seems to happen a lot with my phone for some reason)
You cant attach it with an existing post from Tapa, try a new post.
 Or try imgurupload.com
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Offline myi

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #333 on: October 25, 2018, 10:04:51 AM »
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/25/us/group-invests-5-million-to-hedge-bets-in-lottery.html

I heard about this today on a podcast. They interviewed the head of the fund who said he bought all 7.1 million numbers. Apparently the math worked out then to do it.
Unless theres a program which would computer generate every possible combination, otherwise there is no time to pick each and every combo.
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Offline CS1

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #334 on: October 25, 2018, 10:11:45 AM »
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/25/us/group-invests-5-million-to-hedge-bets-in-lottery.html

I heard about this today on a podcast. They interviewed the head of the fund who said he bought all 7.1 million numbers. Apparently the math worked out then to do it.

it's only a guaranteed win if you buy all 302 million combinations. (Costs $604 million.)
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #335 on: October 25, 2018, 10:52:50 AM »
Unless theres a program which would computer generate every possible combination, otherwise there is no time to pick each and every combo.

There were only 7.1 Mill. They had a computer fill out the forms weeks before and bought when they thought the jackpot had peaked.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #336 on: October 25, 2018, 10:53:34 AM »
it's only a guaranteed win if you buy all 302 million combinations. (Costs $604 million.)

Only 7.1MM combos when they did it. Couldn't be done with mega or powerball, but if a state had a smaller scale lotto, could be done.

Offline Zevi16

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #337 on: October 25, 2018, 11:43:51 AM »
it's only a guaranteed win if you buy all 302 million combinations. (Costs $604 million.)
Could they write that $600m off as an expense?

Offline ChaimMoskowitz

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Re: Mega millions $1.6BB
« Reply #338 on: October 25, 2018, 11:45:15 AM »
Could they write that $600m off as an expense?
Against winnings.
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