Tesla Master Thread

[EJB]

In order for them not to call it an ADAS they will need to get some significant government approval which will probably take years

Keep in mind that you need to include these factors in your time estimates. For it to significantly reduce accidents by the magnitude you mention, the technology not only needs to be much ahead of where it is now and in the vast majority of vehicles on the road (even in vehicle classes that will take more than a decade to turnover), but it will also require significantly more regulatory approval than it has now.

[Shmulie]

I did factor those into my timeline.

Let's come back in 15 years and see how I did

Anyone else want to counter my timeline?

[yelped]

I think that's a bit harsh
He has very aggressive goals with unrealistic timelines but in the end he's done some incredible things with both Tesla and SpaceX

That doesn't mean he's not a charlatan. He is not a complete fraud, but he definitely sells you on something that doesn't exist.  At the end of the day, we do benefit from him innovating, making things viable, and pushing the industry forward, but I would still call him a charlatan.

[EJB]

I did factor those into my timeline.

Let's come back in 15 years and see how I did

And I don't want you to claim victory then due to there being L5 vehicles sold by every major manufacturer. I agree with that.

What I disagree with is that in 10-15 years accidents will go down by 95%+ due to most cars on the road being fully autonomous.

FYI, part of my job is to test and price insurance for AV technologies, so I have seen most of the technologies around.

[EJB]

That doesn't mean he's not a charlatan. He is not a complete fraud, but he definitely sells you on something that doesn't exist.  At the end of the day, we do benefit from him innovating, making things viable, and pushing the industry forward, but I would still call him a charlatan.

He's pretty clear about that. His goals are unachievable, and he won't achieve them all, but at least he'll be better off than if he proposed 'FSD by 2025'

[Shmulie]

And I don't want you to claim victory then due to there being L5 vehicles sold by every major manufacturer. I agree with that.

Understood

I think I laid out timelines for different steps.
I may hit on some and be totally off on others

What I disagree with is that in 10-15 years accidents will go down by 95%+ due to most cars on the road being fully autonomous.

What do you think will happen with accident rates in 15 years, when do you think most cars will be autonomous, what percentage do you think accidents will go down at that time?

[avromie7]

I did factor those into my timeline.

Let's come back in 15 years and see how I did

Anyone else want to counter my timeline?

I think even if Tesla has L5 within 2 years, it will be at least another 5 years until most manufacturers offer it and another 5 years until all new cars are fully autonomous. Then another 10 years for the overwhelming majority of cars to be autonomous.

[EJB]

Understood

I think I laid out timelines for different steps.
I may hit on some and be totally off on others

What do you think will happen with accident rates in 15 years, when do you think most cars will be autonomous, what percentage do you think accidents will go down at that time?

15 years - down 75%
Most cars autonomous - light vehicles by 2040, trucks by 2050
Not sure how low it will go.

[Shmulie]

15 years - down 75%
Most cars autonomous - light vehicles by 2040, trucks by 2050
Not sure how low it will go.

Interesting, I can actually see trucks becoming self-driving quicker due to the costs they would save without employing a driver and the ability to send out groups together to reduce drag.

Unless you're talking about smaller trucks like UPS

[Shmulie]

I think even if Tesla has L5 within 2 years, it will be at least another 5 years until most manufacturers offer it and another 5 years until all new cars are fully autonomous. Then another 10 years for the overwhelming majority of cars to be autonomous.

12 years for all new cars to be FSD is not too far off from what I'm expecting I think the difference is you don't expect too much from retrofitting older cars?

[EJB]

Interesting, I can actually see trucks becoming self-driving quicker due to the costs they would save without employing a driver and the ability to send out groups together to reduce drag.

Unless you're talking about smaller trucks like UPS

There’s def more incentive for trucks (the most advanced av testing I’ve seen is in trucks). But I think it’ll take longer to replace fleets.

You’re missing the main benefit. No mandated rests / 24/7 driving.

[Shmulie]

There’s def more incentive for trucks (the most advanced av testing I’ve seen is in trucks). But I think it’ll take longer to replace fleets.

You’re missing the main benefit. No mandated rests / 24/7 driving.

You're right between all those benefits I don't see how companies can afford not to switch over. The biggest problem will be supply

[EJB]

You're right between all those benefits I don't see how companies can afford not to switch over. The biggest problem will be supply

You’re also underestimating the power of trucker unions

[Shmulie]

You’re also underestimating the power of trucker unions

Are the trucker unions very strong?

What do you need to appease the unions for if there are no truckers?

[EJB]

Are the trucker unions very strong?

What do you need to appease the unions for if there are no truckers?

Can slow the speed at which regulation changes, existing companies react, etc. You mentioned supply limitations. There's also charging infrastructure limitations. 

And the up front investment may be too costly for many companies

We’ll see if TuSimple or Tesla succeed in a commercial AV truck by 2025.  If so, 2040-45 is my estimate (depending on the factors above)

[yesitsme]

Thanks for the fresh air

[Shmulie]

Can slow the speed at which regulation changes, existing companies react, etc. You mentioned supply limitations. There's also charging infrastructure limitations. 

And the up front investment may be too costly for many companies

We’ll see if TuSimple or Tesla succeed in a commercial AV truck by 2025.  If so, 2040-45 is my estimate (depending on the factors above)

I'm actually thinking of investing in TSP
Have you tested their system? Do you think they are the most likely in putting out volume FSD trucks first?

[avromie7]

12 years for all new cars to be FSD is not too far off from what I'm expecting I think the difference is you don't expect too much from retrofitting older cars?

At a minimum, but I think it's probably overly ambitious. I don't see retrofitting being a thing, but I guess it may be possible.

[Something Fishy]

This is Ozzy Man, so mandatory language warning level 1000.

[Yo ssi]

At a minimum, but I think it's probably overly ambitious. I don't see retrofitting being a thing, but I guess it may be possible.

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