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Author Topic: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.  (Read 42994 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #120 on: October 15, 2020, 07:57:21 AM »
@cv no matter your opinion you have a reputation of being quite sensible, so I would assume you would understand that
P.s. I am not commenting on who is more likely to win, just that if one was betting then...
You may have forgotten that the same polls predicted a landslide HRC victory in 16. Some members here have in fact bet against those polls and won nicely. They believed in their hunch, took a risk, and got rewarded for it. That’s PUOSU. If you believe the polls are always right then PUOSU. If you have 100% confidence in the polls, betting on market-rate odds is easy guaranteed money. 538 has Biden at 87% chance to win while the market is at 65%. Beautiful arbitrage opportunity for people who solely rely on polls. The rest of us don’t have 100% confidence in polls, and enough Trump voters believe that to bet on odds 3x higher than his polling odds.

And before you make this about me, I definitely don’t have full confidence that Trump wins this election, but I do have more confidence than 13% chances.
This isn't about you, me, Trump or the odds. It is about the polls and those who keep harping how they are wrong.
When you feel so strongly as the Kool-Aid drinkers do then it is their chance to backup what they are saying.
Find any reputable poll that you want to bet against (outside the margin of error) and I will take the bet. I don't care who it is for or against.
If you ever see me ranting against a poll just ping me and I will bet you straight up. This is how it is done between two individuals who strongly believe in what they are saying.

If you want to bet on the election there are plenty places to do that. As I have posted many times this is not about that.

ETA: If you are looking to bet on the election the line is -200 / +170 currently.
For those that don't understand the difference, betting lines are not based on polls.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 08:35:56 AM by CountValentine »
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Offline aygart

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #121 on: October 15, 2020, 08:29:27 AM »
Is that a pin I hear dropping?  ::)You have until Sunday to PUOSU!!!
What happens Sunday?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #122 on: October 15, 2020, 08:35:18 AM »
What happens Sunday?
No more bets will be taken.
I was hoping at the least one of the Kool-Aid drinking loudmouths would PUOSU.  ;)
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #123 on: October 15, 2020, 09:06:21 AM »
If you know anything about betting then you would know it is about the polls.
For those that don't understand the difference, betting lines are not based on polls.

Can you explain what you mean?
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #124 on: October 15, 2020, 09:28:05 AM »
Can you explain what you mean?
Sure. Look at what @yuneeq posted about 538. Biden 87% chance of winning to Trumps 13% chance. If odds makers where to base there lines off that poll it would be around -700 to +600. The odds line is actually -200 to +170. There is no correlation between the two.

Now back to the theme of this thread. We both know many of the Kool-Aid drinkers have been saying the polls are wrong over and over. Now if they truly believe that then they should be giving me odds if we bet on the election. Here is there chance to PUOSU in what they say they truly believe.
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Offline justaregularguy

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #125 on: October 15, 2020, 05:16:49 PM »
I just want to welcome @CountValentine back to the forums.  ;D I have a feeling certain threads will be revived again..
nothings impossible- the word itself says Im possible

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #126 on: October 15, 2020, 05:29:13 PM »
I have a feeling certain threads will be revived again..
Not for sometime. I thought the Kool-Aid level would drop with me gone and just the opposite has happened.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #127 on: October 15, 2020, 05:49:02 PM »
They don't call 'em "echo chambers" for nothing.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #128 on: October 15, 2020, 06:10:56 PM »
"Reverberation chamber"  ;)
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on 2020 Election.
« Reply #129 on: October 17, 2020, 11:38:18 PM »
Page me again come October 2020.
You asked for it.  :P
@ilherman
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Offline Willie

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #130 on: October 18, 2020, 01:33:41 PM »
In other news, where can I bet on the election with odds?

Offline ilherman

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #131 on: October 18, 2020, 01:38:12 PM »
In other news, where can I bet on the election with odds?
predictit
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #132 on: October 18, 2020, 02:18:44 PM »
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #133 on: October 19, 2020, 10:29:25 PM »
Could not get one of the loudmouths to put up. What a shock!!!  :)
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Offline good sam

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #134 on: October 20, 2020, 05:27:46 AM »
Could not get one of the loudmouths to put up. What a shock!!!  :)
Makes no sense. Why would anyone put up $20 for your 1:1 odds when they can put the same $20 for the far better Vegas odds.
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #135 on: October 20, 2020, 07:48:29 AM »
Makes no sense. Why would anyone put up $20 for your 1:1 odds when they can put the same $20 for the far better Vegas odds.
Maybe read the thread then you would understand.
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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #136 on: October 20, 2020, 08:04:15 AM »
Maybe read the thread then you would understand.
I did. You are asking people to throw money away just to prove they are serious. Doesn't make sense.
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #137 on: October 20, 2020, 10:13:42 AM »
Makes no sense. Why would anyone put up $20 for your 1:1 odds when they can put the same $20 for the far better Vegas odds.
Correct. My bets are in.

Offline Willie

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #138 on: October 20, 2020, 10:16:13 AM »
Correct. My bets are in.
where did you bet, predict it seems to take a lot of fees

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #139 on: October 20, 2020, 10:54:50 AM »
I did. You are asking people to throw money away just to prove they are serious. Doesn't make sense.
If you are going to shoot your mouth off you need to PUOSU. All these kool-aid drinkers are saying over and over the polls are wrong. I am saying they are not. It is a simple straight up bet. They are all FOS and this proves it.
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