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Author Topic: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.  (Read 49299 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #280 on: November 04, 2020, 10:16:48 AM »
Nope. Regardless of how who wins, the polls were off by historic margins
This wasn't about margins but I appreciate the kool-aid!  :)
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #281 on: November 04, 2020, 10:48:48 AM »
RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation
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Offline aygart

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #282 on: November 04, 2020, 10:53:43 AM »
RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation
Yup!
I don't throw eggs for election predictions. They are typically more indicative of a person's preferences than reality even if they turn out accurate. It is not the data but how you interpret it.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #283 on: November 04, 2020, 11:00:41 AM »
RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation

LMAO how you post this with a straight face.

FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%

WI polls: Biden +6.7
Results: Biden +0.7
Off by 6%

OH polls: Trump +1
Results: Trump +8.1
Off by 7.1%

And etc.

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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #284 on: November 04, 2020, 11:02:42 AM »
LMAO how you post this with a straight face.

FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%

WI polls: Biden +6.7
Results: Biden +0.7
Off by 6%

OH polls: Trump +1
Results: Trump +8.1
Off by 7.1%

And etc.
So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?
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Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #285 on: November 04, 2020, 11:02:45 AM »
RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation

The problem with basing purely off untranslatated RCP polls is that they report larger 3rd party share than ever actually appears in ballots. Factoring for that and adjusting odds accordingly necessitates interpretation. For example, RCP gave Biden 47.8 in FL, like you said, but they also gave Trump 47. According to RCP raw numbers, Trump was losing there.

Offline aygart

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #286 on: November 04, 2020, 11:05:42 AM »
So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?
If they are spot-on for one side but way off for the other then how is that accurate?
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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #287 on: November 04, 2020, 11:07:26 AM »
So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?

No one gives a rats tush about accuracy for Biden when the entire issue has always been underestimating Trump voters. When you’re outside the acceptable 3% margin of error you’re fake news.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #288 on: November 04, 2020, 11:10:47 AM »
No one gives a rats tush about accuracy for Biden when the entire issue has always been underestimating Trump voters. When you’re outside the acceptable 3% margin of error you’re fake news.
This was about if the polls picked the right winner.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #289 on: November 04, 2020, 11:15:49 AM »
This was about if the polls picked the right winner.

So then how does Biden's share in FL make the poll accurate if Trump's was so low that they got the winner wrong?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #290 on: November 04, 2020, 11:20:36 AM »
So then how does Biden's share in FL make the poll accurate if Trump's was so low that they got the winner wrong?
You are talking about two different issues.
The polls seem to be right on the winner.
My comment was on what another member posted was correct.
So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?
Then you went into your spin not answering question to which the answer is yes.  :P
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Offline aygart

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #291 on: November 04, 2020, 11:28:22 AM »
You are talking about two different issues.
The polls seem to be right on the winner.
My comment was on what another member posted was correct. Then you went into your spin not answering question to which the answer is yes.  :P
FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%


Correct but not relevant.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #292 on: November 04, 2020, 11:31:32 AM »
So then how does Biden's share in FL make the poll accurate if Trump's was so low that they got the winner wrong?
Because the polling data didn't say Trump won't get more than his share. The polling data only gave results for 95% of the voters and that was accurate. The remaining 5% all went to Trump and that's an interpretation mistake.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #293 on: November 04, 2020, 11:33:01 AM »
FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%


Correct but not relevant.
Where did I say that wasn't correct.
I get you trying to spin what I said.
Bottom line of this thread is if the polls pick the winner right or not. That was what the bet was for those that PU. Since you didn't PU you should SU!  :)
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #294 on: November 04, 2020, 11:38:45 AM »
The confidence level in the polls predicting Biden's win came from states like Wisconsin where the polls gave Biden 50%+. Polls that give each party 45% are bound to be wrong when you need 50%
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #296 on: November 04, 2020, 12:36:23 PM »
Because the polling data didn't say Trump won't get more than his share. The polling data only gave results for 95% of the voters and that was accurate. The remaining 5% all went to Trump and that's an interpretation mistake.

I seem to remember someone saying that (unlike 2016) this year there were not enough undecided for the polls to be wrong.

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #297 on: November 04, 2020, 12:47:04 PM »
Because the polling data didn't say Trump won't get more than his share. The polling data only gave results for 95% of the voters and that was accurate. The remaining 5% all went to Trump and that's an interpretation mistake.

That's a terrible excuse for terrible polling. Every single undecided voter went for Trump?
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #298 on: November 04, 2020, 01:43:44 PM »
That's a terrible excuse for terrible polling. Every single undecided voter went for Trump?
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Offline mochjas

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Re: Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.
« Reply #299 on: November 04, 2020, 01:45:20 PM »
That's a terrible excuse for terrible polling. Every single undecided voter went for Trump?
After hes been telling us for 2 weeks that there arent enough undecideds to sway the vote this time  ::)