Taking all bets on Trump winning 2020 Election.

[CountValentine]

Nope. Regardless of how who wins, the polls were off by historic margins

This wasn't about margins but I appreciate the kool-aid! 

[PlatinumGuy]

RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation

[aygart]

RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation

Yup!

I don't throw eggs for election predictions. They are typically more indicative of a person's preferences than reality even if they turn out accurate. It is not the data but how you interpret it.

[yuneeq]

RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation

LMAO how you post this with a straight face.

FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%

WI polls: Biden +6.7
Results: Biden +0.7
Off by 6%

OH polls: Trump +1
Results: Trump +8.1
Off by 7.1%

And etc.

[CountValentine]

LMAO how you post this with a straight face.

FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%

WI polls: Biden +6.7
Results: Biden +0.7
Off by 6%

OH polls: Trump +1
Results: Trump +8.1
Off by 7.1%

And etc.

So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?

[drosenberg88429]

RCP Florida average gave Biden 47.8% - exactly on mark. WI 50.5% - exactly on mark.

National is full of surprises, the blue states do a very poor job of counting absentee ballots, Biden may still have a large lead.

You have to distinguish between the data in the polls which is remarkably accurate and the interpretation

The problem with basing purely off untranslatated RCP polls is that they report larger 3rd party share than ever actually appears in ballots. Factoring for that and adjusting odds accordingly necessitates interpretation. For example, RCP gave Biden 47.8 in FL, like you said, but they also gave Trump 47. According to RCP raw numbers, Trump was losing there.

[aygart]

So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?

If they are spot-on for one side but way off for the other then how is that accurate?

[yuneeq]

So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?

No one gives a rats tush about accuracy for Biden when the entire issue has always been underestimating Trump voters. When you’re outside the acceptable 3% margin of error you’re fake news.

[CountValentine]

No one gives a rats tush about accuracy for Biden when the entire issue has always been underestimating Trump voters. When you’re outside the acceptable 3% margin of error you’re fake news.

This was about if the polls picked the right winner.

[aygart]

This was about if the polls picked the right winner.

So then how does Biden's share in FL make the poll accurate if Trump's was so low that they got the winner wrong?

[CountValentine]

So then how does Biden's share in FL make the poll accurate if Trump's was so low that they got the winner wrong?

You are talking about two different issues.
The polls seem to be right on the winner.
My comment was on what another member posted was correct.

So they were spot on for predicting Bidens share?

Then you went into your spin not answering question to which the answer is yes. 

[aygart]

You are talking about two different issues.
The polls seem to be right on the winner.
My comment was on what another member posted was correct. Then you went into your spin not answering question to which the answer is yes. 

FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%


Correct but not relevant.

[PlatinumGuy]

So then how does Biden's share in FL make the poll accurate if Trump's was so low that they got the winner wrong?

Because the polling data didn't say Trump won't get more than his share. The polling data only gave results for 95% of the voters and that was accurate. The remaining 5% all went to Trump and that's an interpretation mistake.

[CountValentine]

FL polls: Biden +0.9
Results: Trump +3.4
Off by 4.3%


Correct but not relevant.

Where did I say that wasn't correct.
I get you trying to spin what I said.
Bottom line of this thread is if the polls pick the winner right or not. That was what the bet was for those that PU. Since you didn't PU you should SU! 

[PlatinumGuy]

The confidence level in the polls predicting Biden's win came from states like Wisconsin where the polls gave Biden 50%+. Polls that give each party 45% are bound to be wrong when you need 50%

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324030784198553600?s=21

[zh cohen]

Because the polling data didn't say Trump won't get more than his share. The polling data only gave results for 95% of the voters and that was accurate. The remaining 5% all went to Trump and that's an interpretation mistake.

I seem to remember someone saying that (unlike 2016) this year there were not enough undecided for the polls to be wrong.

[yuneeq]

Because the polling data didn't say Trump won't get more than his share. The polling data only gave results for 95% of the voters and that was accurate. The remaining 5% all went to Trump and that's an interpretation mistake.

That's a terrible excuse for terrible polling. Every single undecided voter went for Trump?

[Ergel]

That's a terrible excuse for terrible polling. Every single undecided voter went for Trump?

Bingo. @PlatinumGuy you are smarter than that

[mochjas]

That's a terrible excuse for terrible polling. Every single undecided voter went for Trump?

After hes been telling us for 2 weeks that there arent enough undecideds to sway the vote this time