@cv no matter your opinion you have a reputation of being quite sensible, so I would assume you would understand that
P.s. I am not commenting on who is more likely to win, just that if one was betting then...
You may have forgotten that the same polls predicted a landslide HRC victory in 16. Some members here have in fact bet against those polls and won nicely. They believed in their hunch, took a risk, and got rewarded for it. That’s PUOSU. If you believe the polls are always right then PUOSU. If you have 100% confidence in the polls, betting on market-rate odds is easy guaranteed money. 538 has Biden at 87% chance to win while the market is at 65%. Beautiful arbitrage opportunity for people who solely rely on polls. The rest of us don’t have 100% confidence in polls, and enough Trump voters believe that to bet on odds 3x higher than his polling odds.
And before you make this about me, I definitely don’t have full confidence that Trump wins this election, but I do have more confidence than 13% chances.
This isn't about you, me, Trump or the odds. It is about the polls and those who keep harping how they are wrong.
When you feel so strongly as the Kool-Aid drinkers do then it is their chance to backup what they are saying.
Find any reputable poll that you want to bet against (outside the margin of error) and I will take the bet. I don't care who it is for or against.
If you ever see me ranting against a poll just ping me and I will bet you straight up. This is how it is done between two individuals who strongly believe in what they are saying.
If you want to bet on the election there are plenty places to do that. As I have posted many times this is not about that.
ETA: If you are looking to bet on the election the line is -200 / +170 currently.
For those that don't understand the difference, betting lines are not based on polls.