Author Topic: Is Omicron different?  (Read 2653 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #40 on: January 05, 2022, 01:54:29 PM »
No but there should be a big difference in rates adjusted by the relevant population group

If 80% are vaccinated and 20% not, 80% in hospital are vaccinated and 20% not what does it say?

This is based on the data of the tweet above

What is the rate of vaccinated/unvaccinated?
Here in the states all but four states are above 50% for fully vaccinated.
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Offline Alexsei

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #41 on: January 05, 2022, 01:56:24 PM »
What is the rate of vaccinated/unvaccinated?
Here in the states all but four states are above 50% for fully vaccinated.

According to https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=QC 77.768% of all people in Quebec are fully (double) vaccinated
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #42 on: January 05, 2022, 01:58:41 PM »
According to https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=QC 77.768% of all people in Quebec are fully (double) vaccinated
So the unvaccinated (not fully vaccinated) are at a higher risk to end up in the ICU? Do I have that right?
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Offline Alexsei

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #43 on: January 05, 2022, 02:01:59 PM »
So the unvaccinated (not fully vaccinated) are at a higher risk to end up in the ICU? Do I have that right?
Looks so from the current data, however the likelihood of that has been dropping significantly, 2 weeks ago the 28 days tats was the complete opposite
Quebec has reached the 70% threshold in August 

Dec 20, 2021
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #44 on: January 05, 2022, 02:06:56 PM »
Looks so from the current data, however the likelihood of that has been dropping significantly, 2 weeks ago the 28 days tats was the complete opposite
Quebec has reached the 70% threshold in August
Your post is the first one I have seen with the % being so high. We should know more each week.

What was interesting was 28 day pie chart for ICU. Vaccinated went down and unvaccinated went up. Could just be lagging with more of it due to Delta.

ETA: See you posted a new chart during my post.
So ICU is going up for vaccinated over that period.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2022, 02:11:06 PM by CountValentine »
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #45 on: January 05, 2022, 04:08:08 PM »
Looks so from the current data, however the likelihood of that has been dropping significantly, 2 weeks ago the 28 days tats was the complete opposite
It's very simple - if you're looking at the Quebec dashboards, you should be looking at the incidence per 100k numbers.

Here's the 1/4 dashboard:

And here's the 12/20 dashboard (not sure why you picked that date, but let's run with it):

On 12/20, vaccinated were less likely to contract COVID, less likely to be hospitalized, and less likely to end up in the ICU. On 1/4, vaccinated were ever so slightly more likely to contract COVID, but still less likely to be hospitalized or end up in the ICU. This is consistent with what's being observed elsewhere - the vaccine is much less able to prevent contracting omicron (I say much instead of not at all since there are likely confounding factors that lead to incidence being higher among vaccinated than unvaccinated), but still very effective at preventing severe cases.

Offline Alexsei

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #46 on: January 05, 2022, 04:30:59 PM »
It's very simple - if you're looking at the Quebec dashboards, you should be looking at the incidence per 100k numbers.

On 12/20, vaccinated were less likely to contract COVID, less likely to be hospitalized, and less likely to end up in the ICU. On 1/4, vaccinated were ever so slightly more likely to contract COVID, but still less likely to be hospitalized or end up in the ICU. This is consistent with what's being observed elsewhere - the vaccine is much less able to prevent contracting omicron (I say much instead of not at all since there are likely confounding factors that lead to incidence being higher among vaccinated than unvaccinated), but still very effective at preventing severe cases.

Trying to figure how we calculate rates per 100k, what I did here was take the total population of the 2021 census, divide it by the overall vaccination percentage (this of course isn't considering age related trends) and then dividing the 28 day total by 100k in each population group
P.s. partially vaccinated have been combined with unvaccinated.
Showing that there are approx. 25 people in the hospital for every 100,000 vaccinated while there are 51 people for every 100,000 unvaccinated


While this is what they show

« Last Edit: January 05, 2022, 04:35:34 PM by Alexsei »
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #47 on: January 05, 2022, 04:37:29 PM »
Trying to figure how we calculate rates per 100k, what I did here was take the total population of the 2021 census, divide it by the overall vaccination percentage (this of course isn't considering age related trends) and then dividing the 28 day total by 100k in each population group

Not sure why you're reconstructing the populations, it's on their chart.

I also don't understand their exact number for hospitalizations, but the ratio of the vax to unvax number in their tweet is basically the same as in your data.

ETA: Why are you lumping 1 shot together with unvax instead of with 2 shot?

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #48 on: January 05, 2022, 04:48:28 PM »
Not sure why you're reconstructing the populations, it's on their chart.

I also don't understand their exact number for hospitalizations, but the ratio of the vax to unvax number in their tweet is basically the same as in your data.

ETA: Why are you lumping 1 shot together with unvax instead of with 2 shot?
Missed that! so essentially we're seeing the same "rate" for unvaccinated/vaccinated for 1/4 vs 12/20 "2x"


Now we need to adjust this by age since 65-70% hospitalized are 60+ with a 94% vax rate.

The next question I have is, if we reach 100% vaccination rate how will we be able to 'see' the benefit?

Quote
ETA: Why are you lumping 1 shot together with unvax instead of with 2 shot?
You can argue they don't have full immunity yet
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #49 on: January 06, 2022, 12:00:07 AM »
Missed that! so essentially we're seeing the same "rate" for unvaccinated/vaccinated for 1/4 vs 12/20 "2x"
No, I was saying that both the ratio of the unvaxxed to vaxxed in the Quebec tweet and in your calc were similar.

You can argue they don't have full immunity yet
If the question is whether vaccinations in general decrease risk of hospitalization, it makes no sense to lump 1 dose in with unvaccinated. That group fared the best in the data (many possible reasons), so I understand why you wouldn't want to include it with 2 doses, but then leave it out - don't sneakily try to boost the unvaccinated group with the performance of the 1 dose group.

Now we need to adjust this by age since 65-70% hospitalized are 60+ with a 94% vax rate.
It really doesn't help much. I played around with the data (links to vaccinations and hospitalizations) a bit, and it seems like the ratio is even worse for 40-59 (ie unvaccinated is worse off relative to vaccinated in that category than 60+).

I didn't do the full workup for the 28 day period ending 2 weeks or a month ago. It's possible that Omicron is leveling the playing field somewhat - but it hasn't come close to eliminating the advantages of vaccines.

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #50 on: January 06, 2022, 03:18:22 PM »

Offline gozalim

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #51 on: January 06, 2022, 08:17:28 PM »
Something new.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-01-omicron-mouse-kind.html
which takes some of the steam out of the argument that these mutations are the product of unvaccinated people

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #52 on: January 06, 2022, 10:24:56 PM »
which takes some of the steam out of the argument that these mutations are the product of unvaccinated people

Assuming you trust the Chinese about anything related to COVID.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #53 on: January 06, 2022, 10:37:13 PM »
Assuming you trust the Chinese about anything related to COVID.
We only trust them when they support the talking points being made.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #54 on: January 06, 2022, 10:39:07 PM »
We only trust them when they support the talking points being made.

They support masking and testing, its made them boatloads of cash, literally.

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #55 on: January 06, 2022, 10:53:28 PM »
Is there any potential of an antibody test that tells you which variant you have antibodies for?
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #56 on: January 06, 2022, 11:26:04 PM »
Is there any potential of an antibody test that tells you which variant you have antibodies for?

This would be interesting. Likely too cost-prohibitive to be nearly accurate and widely available if I had to guess.

There were articles going around recently about hospital doctors treating COVID patients not being able to determine which strain their patients were infected with.

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #57 on: January 06, 2022, 11:32:36 PM »
Assuming it would be a long time in coming, but I do think it would be interesting.
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #58 on: January 06, 2022, 11:35:53 PM »
Assuming it would be a long time in coming, but I do think it would be interesting.

The science (if I can remotely understand it) is interesting too, even if the time/education to understand it properly is cost-prohibitive :D

Offline S209

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Re: Is Omicron different?
« Reply #59 on: January 07, 2022, 12:03:04 AM »
Why is this stickied?