Author Topic: GOP Master thread  (Read 239636 times)

Offline CS91

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #900 on: April 04, 2016, 02:51:21 PM »
Is this the beginning of the end of the Trump campaign?
What are you referring to?

Offline Welder

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #901 on: April 04, 2016, 04:26:56 PM »
Is this the beginning of the end of the Trump campaign? Am I being much to presumptuous?
+1
"We need more welders and less philosophers" Marco Rubio

Offline churnbabychurn

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #902 on: April 04, 2016, 04:29:54 PM »
Is this the beginning of the end of the Trump campaign? Am I being much to presumptuous?
Yeah.. It's winding down.

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #903 on: April 04, 2016, 04:45:46 PM »
Yeah.. It's winding down.

IMO he's going to start to lose momentum, a brokered convention will be more likely, and trump will try to pull the "Trump" card of a potential independent run to pressure the GOP into selecting him, claiming that they aren't treating him "fairly." I don't think the GOP will balk, but am not sure if they'll select the hardliner Cruz or the more practical Kasich.

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #904 on: April 04, 2016, 05:01:51 PM »
I don't think the GOP will balk, but am not sure if they'll select the hardliner Cruz or the more practical Kasich.
WHat exactly is practical about Kasich? He hasn't even come close to winning any state but his own? He hasn't even gotten above 20%except for 2 states with most states below 10%. He is the guy who can win an election?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #905 on: April 04, 2016, 05:06:36 PM »
WHat exactly is practical about Kasich? He hasn't even come close to winning any state but his own? He hasn't even gotten above 20%except for 2 states with most states below 10%. He is the guy who can win an election?
Have you seen the Cruz vs Clinton and Kasich vs Clinton polls?
Never mind that no Republican has won without carrying OH and Kasich will easily carry OH while Cruz will not.

But it's true that Kasich doesn't excite the base, so he's not going to be nominated.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #906 on: April 04, 2016, 05:08:29 PM »
Have you seen the Cruz vs Clinton and Kasich vs Clinton polls?
Never mind that no Republican has won without carrying OH and Kasich will easily carry OH while Cruz will not.
Those polls are meaningless at this point. There is no point in winning OH if you lose the other 49. I can see Kasich being a good president but I can't see him getting there.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #907 on: April 04, 2016, 05:23:04 PM »
WHat exactly is practical about Kasich? He hasn't even come close to winning any state but his own? He hasn't even gotten above 20%except for 2 states with most states below 10%. He is the guy who can win an election?

A general election, yes. Head to head polls (which have been relatively accurate and consistent so far) have consistently shown that Trump gets obliterated by Clinton in a head to head, while Kasich has been leading by a sizable margin. These polls are supported by the primary exit polls that have consistently indicated that apprx 1/3 of republican voters would NOT vote for Cruz or Trump if they were selected as the party's nominee. I know many people that typically vote republican that are seriously considering voting for Hillary in this election if Trump or Cruz are selected.

Kasich hasn't done well in the primaries because he's a moderate, but that's exactly what the republican party needs if t hey wants to take over the white house. Both Trump and Cruz lose more people than they bring in, especially in swing states. Kasich would likely win Ohio and could very possibly win several other of the significant swing states. There is no statistical backing or evidence whatsoever to the claim that trump would bring historically blue states in play this election; IMO it is more likely that he would bring historically red states in play.

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #908 on: April 04, 2016, 05:24:14 PM »
Those polls are meaningless at this point. There is no point in winning OH if you lose the other 49. I can see Kasich being a good president but I can't see him getting there.

Which other 49 would he lose??? You're confusing the general election matchup with the primary, which is less meaningful than the polls at this point.

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #909 on: April 04, 2016, 05:25:34 PM »
But it's true that Kasich doesn't excite the base, so he's not going to be nominated.

Would be hilarious (and terrible) if Hillary nominates him as her VP.

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #910 on: April 04, 2016, 05:27:10 PM »
Oh please. Just because he's socially liberal doesn't mean he would be in her ticket.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #911 on: April 04, 2016, 05:33:58 PM »
Which other 49 would he lose??? You're confusing the general election matchup with the primary, which is less meaningful than the polls at this point.
Other than OH which state can he win that Romney lost? Which states can he lose which Romney won? He has no path to the presidency. It helps him nothing that he may lose CA to Hillary by less than Cruz or Trump. If he cannot get people to vote for him in the primary then he can't get people to vote for him in the general. Of course those who will vote for Mickey Mouse as the R against Hillary will still vote for him.

Also, there is no candidate who will alienate more voters in a brokered convention than Kasich. It is one thing to bring in someone who wasn't running but another to nominate the one who everyone voted against.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #912 on: April 04, 2016, 05:34:52 PM »
Oh please. Just because he's socially liberal doesn't mean he would be in her ticket.

It won't happen. But it would be hilarious (and disastrous) if it would

Offline David Smith

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #913 on: April 04, 2016, 05:39:59 PM »
Other than OH which state can he win that Romney lost? Which states can he lose which Romney won? He has no path to the presidency. It helps him nothing that he may lose CA to Hillary by less than Cruz or Trump. If he cannot get people to vote for him in the primary then he can't get people to vote for him in the general. Of course those who will vote for Mickey Mouse as the R against Hillary will still vote for him.

Also, there is no candidate who will alienate more voters in a brokered convention than Kasich. It is one thing to bring in someone who wasn't running but another to nominate the one who everyone voted against.
The question is if he would've gotten Rubio votes, or if Cruz would've. At this point, there's no way of knowing that.
Who do you think you are fooling? You think you are going to pull a quick one on your Creator? Good luck with that.
JTZ

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #914 on: April 04, 2016, 05:40:54 PM »
Also, there is no candidate who will alienate more voters in a brokered convention than Kasich. It is one thing to bring in someone who wasn't running but another to nominate the one who everyone voted against.

Opposite. I don't think many people who voted for Trump/Cruz did so because they hated Kasich. I do think many people that voted against Trump/Cruz did so because they hated Trump/Cruz. Both of them divide the republican party, for better or for worse.

You are correct that a brokered convention runs a serious risk of fragmenting the republican party further, but that risk exists if any of the 3 current candidates are selected. Again, the exit poll results for the states that have had primaries so far, especially the swing states, are frightening.

I am sure the party leaders and delegates will try, as best as possible, to use the convention to unite the party in favor of the candidate they select and against Hillary. You are correct that this will be difficult to do.


Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #915 on: April 04, 2016, 05:41:11 PM »
The question is if he would've gotten Rubio votes, or if Cruz would've. At this point, there's no way of knowing that.

According to Trump he'd get the trump votes :)

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #916 on: April 04, 2016, 05:47:11 PM »
Opposite. I don't think many people who voted for Trump/Cruz did so because they hated Kasich. I do think many people that voted against Trump/Cruz did so because they hated Trump/Cruz. Both of them divide the republican party, for better or for worse.

I don't think there is that much hate of Cruz among Trump supporters other than the real diehards who are taking the competition between them personally. THose who hate Cruz due to his Senate antics aren't for Trump. The fact is that 90-95% of votes in most states has been against Kasich. THere was not a single point in this cycle that he had a chance of winning with votes. For him to get the nomination would be seen by almost anyone as stealing it. As the delegate count stands now that would not be the case with either Trump or Cruz.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline EJB

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #917 on: April 04, 2016, 05:53:02 PM »
The fact is that 90-95% of votes in most states has been against Kasich.

That's similar to the argument that 80% of the votes in most states have been against Cruz. That's because the competition split the anti-trump votes. Kasich isn't polling too badly in the remaining states (he's ahead of Cruz in many of them), though he probably will not win that many of them.

The only way Kasich would be nominated in a brokered convention would be if the party unites around the idea of beating Hillary. It isn't unheard of to select a candidate with few delegates. Statistically, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump doesn't get 200 electoral votes, and I don't see how Cruz wins in swing states.

Offline Baruch

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #918 on: April 04, 2016, 06:42:11 PM »
I hate the 4 remaining candidates.
I don't remember an election where each candidate is worse than the next.
It's the weirdest election cycle ever.

Believe it or not, to me Hillary is the best of the bunch.

Trump is a 2 year old nutcase.
Cruz is a hard line right wing nut.
Uncle Boynie is a hard line left wing nut.

At least Hillary is just an uninspired serial liar!

Offline Dan

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Re: GOP Master thread
« Reply #919 on: April 04, 2016, 06:44:52 PM »
And what's wrong with Kasich?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.