Author Topic: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant  (Read 11558 times)

Online avromie7

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #60 on: November 28, 2021, 06:02:26 PM »
Fair enough.
So we don't listen to anyone and call them idiots for an indiscretion?  :)

ETA: This reminds me how they crucified Dr Deborah Birx because she traveled to close her summer home. Now we no longer have one of the top experts in field.
This is not what I was referring it. It's him always predicting the worst case scenario as the most likely scenario. He's an alarmist who should not be given a platform by the MSM if they care about anything other than getting people worried so they consume more news.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #61 on: November 28, 2021, 06:10:37 PM »
This is not what I was referring it. It's him always predicting the worst case scenario as the most likely scenario. He's an alarmist who should not be given a platform by the MSM if they care about anything other than getting people worried so they consume more news.
I know he is at one end of the spectrum but does he say it is the most likely scenario?
You have a link/s?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #62 on: November 28, 2021, 06:26:21 PM »
I know he is at one end of the spectrum but does he say it is the most likely scenario?
You have a link/s?
It's hard to find because it was so long ago, but this is what I found
https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/failures-influential-covid-19-model-used-justify-lockdowns
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #63 on: November 28, 2021, 06:32:39 PM »
It's hard to find because it was so long ago, but this is what I found
https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/failures-influential-covid-19-model-used-justify-lockdowns
Didn't the virus turn out to be worse than the models predicted? I remember the last admin saying if they kept it under 200k they would have done a good job. Maybe the lockdown should have been longer?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #64 on: November 28, 2021, 07:44:06 PM »
Didn't the virus turn out to be worse than the models predicted? I remember the last admin saying if they kept it under 200k they would have done a good job. Maybe the lockdown should have been longer?
Not his model
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #65 on: November 28, 2021, 07:48:44 PM »
Not his model
Would have to see his numbers.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline yelped

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #66 on: November 29, 2021, 01:19:04 AM »
Would have to see his numbers.
This was discussed here a while back. What I remember seeing is that he was way, way off, and that in itself caused many of the early deaths of the pandemic.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #67 on: November 29, 2021, 09:45:27 AM »
So, Omricon update:
There was a massive spike of case counts in SA on Tuesday 11/23/21, which by now is almost a week ago. Cases since than have been higher than usual and trending upward, but significantly lower than that single day surge and no insane exponential growth.

Regeneron has one of the best variant dashboards I've seen so far, and it certainly seems like Omricon has rapidly become the dominant strain in SA:



Here's the deep link in case you want to fiddle with it: https://covid19dashboard.regeneron.com/?tab=Variant_Graphs&subTab=Top_Variants_Over_Time_(Select_Location)&VariantType=PANGO%20lineage&Continent=Africa&Country=South%20Africa

It's yet to be determined whether this variant is more severe (no evidence thus far) or how much more transmissible it is. It's too soon to call (certainly with my lack of expertise) but it's possible this could become the dominant strain globally like Delta has.

One thing's for sure, the ship has sailed with cases reported across Europe, as well as in Canada and Australia.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #68 on: November 29, 2021, 09:51:28 AM »
So, Omricon update:
There was a massive spike of case counts in SA on Tuesday 11/23/21, which by now is almost a week ago. Cases since than have been higher than usual and trending upward, but significantly lower than that single day surge and no insane exponential growth.


How does it compare to the spike at the same time last year?
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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #69 on: November 29, 2021, 09:54:24 AM »
How does it compare to the spike at the same time last year?

It's hard to infer visually from a graph, and I don't have the tools on hand to overlay the data. If I had to guess it's too soon to call that one too.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #70 on: November 29, 2021, 10:02:22 AM »
It's hard to infer visually from a graph, and I don't have the tools on hand to overlay the data. If I had to guess it's too soon to call that one too.
If I had to guess, and this is based not on any scientific knowledge or data, it will end up being a very similar spike and it will be attributed to the new variant when it will match the seasonal spikes occurring the world over.
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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #71 on: November 29, 2021, 10:05:31 AM »
If I had to guess, and this is based not on any scientific knowledge or data, it will end up being a very similar spike and it will be attributed to the new variant when it will match the seasonal spikes occurring the world over.

Very possibly. Delta is more transmissible but spikes are similar.

Online biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #72 on: November 29, 2021, 12:49:31 PM »
So, Omricon update:
There was a massive spike of case counts in SA on Tuesday 11/23/21, which by now is almost a week ago.
[...]
It's yet to be determined whether this variant is more severe (no evidence thus far) or how much more transmissible it is. It's too soon to call (certainly with my lack of expertise) but it's possible this could become the dominant strain globally like Delta has.
The case counts, severity and transmissibility of cases, and dominant strains are all important parameters to look at.  But the current restrictions were introduced to allow time to collect enough data to analyze another parameter that you haven't mentioned, which people are getting sick?

As Abey has been hinting, this question is critical because the mutations are in the spike protein, which is used by the virus to infect our cells.  It is also the protein that is targeted by most of our antibodies (induced by vaccination or prior infection) and by some of our treatments (convalescent serum, monoclonal antibodies).  So unlike the many other variants that have been found, this variant may not be stopped by our current immunity, and may not be treatable with some of our current treatments.

To answer this question, we need to allow enough time to study the behavior of the virus and antibodies in the lab, and to analyze who is getting infected with this variant.
- Is it mostly those with no vaccination and no prior infection?  If so, we can expect borders to re-open and to see renewed emphasis on vaccination. 
-Is there a higher-than-expected percentage of vaccinated and/or recovered people getting omicron?  If so, we can expect more prolonged restrictions to allow time (weeks?  months?) for production of a new vaccine and development of new monoclonal antibodies.

Quote
One thing's for sure, the ship has sailed with cases reported across Europe, as well as in Canada and Australia.
Yes, borders today are quite porous, and omicron has moved far from its origin.  But there's a difference between one ship that has sailed, and having an entire fleet enter the harbor every day.  The restrictions were not placed in some naive belief that they will block every omicron virus, but simply as a measure to buy time for the scientific and medical research.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #73 on: November 29, 2021, 01:07:05 PM »
The case counts, severity and transmissibility of cases, and dominant strains are all important parameters to look at.  But the current restrictions were introduced to allow time to collect enough data to analyze another parameter that you haven't mentioned, which people are getting sick?

As Abey has been hinting, this question is critical because the mutations are in the spike protein, which is used by the virus to infect our cells.  It is also the protein that is targeted by most of our antibodies (induced by vaccination or prior infection) and by some of our treatments (convalescent serum, monoclonal antibodies).  So unlike the many other variants that have been found, this variant may not be stopped by our current immunity, and may not be treatable with some of our current treatments.

To answer this question, we need to allow enough time to study the behavior of the virus and antibodies in the lab, and to analyze who is getting infected with this variant.
- Is it mostly those with no vaccination and no prior infection?  If so, we can expect borders to re-open and to see renewed emphasis on vaccination. 
-Is there a higher-than-expected percentage of vaccinated and/or recovered people getting omicron?  If so, we can expect more prolonged restrictions to allow time (weeks?  months?) for production of a new vaccine and development of new monoclonal antibodies.
Yes, borders today are quite porous, and omicron has moved far from its origin.  But there's a difference between one ship that has sailed, and having an entire fleet enter the harbor every day.  The restrictions were not placed in some naive belief that they will block every omicron virus, but simply as a measure to buy time for the scientific and medical research.

Thanks for your thoughtful comments.

Who is getting sick (with regards to vaccination) will be harder to tell because only 24% are fully vaccinated and none by the Moderna vaccine (haven't found a full breakdown for the 24% but seems to be either Pfizer or J&J.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #74 on: November 29, 2021, 01:45:58 PM »




Yes, borders today are quite porous, and omicron has moved far from its origin.  But there's a difference between one ship that has sailed, and having an entire fleet enter the harbor every day.  The restrictions were not placed in some naive belief that they will block every omicron virus, but simply as a measure to buy time for the scientific and medical research.
Yet WHO is against the border restrictions this time
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #75 on: November 29, 2021, 01:50:43 PM »
Yet WHO is against the border restrictions this time

They claim it'll disincentivize reporting, and are pushing for an international accord that'll address this. Basically, they have their own agenda here.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #76 on: November 29, 2021, 01:51:04 PM »
Thanks for your thoughtful comments.

Who is getting sick (with regards to vaccination) will be harder to tell because only 24% are fully vaccinated and none by the Moderna vaccine (haven't found a full breakdown for the 24% but seems to be either Pfizer or J&J.
I think you mean 24% in South Africa, but as you pointed out, the virus has already spread elsewhere.  Yes, it will be harder to tell if the vaccine and prior infection are protective against omicron.  That's why the alert was sent out, even though the number of cases is still small.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #77 on: November 29, 2021, 01:55:47 PM »
I think you mean 24% in South Africa, but as you pointed out, the virus has already spread elsewhere.  Yes, it will be harder to tell if the vaccine and prior infection are protective against omicron.  That's why the alert was sent out, even though the number of cases is still small.

Indeed I meant 24% in South Africa. Are there verified reports of community spread outside of Southern Africa? All I read about was identified individual cases. In any case, I don't think there's enough data outside of Africa to analyze yet.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #78 on: November 29, 2021, 02:17:19 PM »
Yet WHO is against the border restrictions this time
There are reasonable arguments for and against border restrictions.  What I think is not reasonable is to characterize the border restrictions as unwarranted hysterical panic.

Indeed I meant 24% in South Africa. Are there verified reports of community spread outside of Southern Africa? All I read about was identified individual cases. In any case, I don't think there's enough data outside of Africa to analyze yet.
"So far it has been detected in South Africa and Botswana, as well as in travelers to Australia, Austria, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Hong Kong."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/health/coronavirus-variant-tracker.html

Ideally, individual cases would be studied more intensively as they're found, rather than waiting for community spread.  That is, recording that person's history (prior infection, vax) and trying to trace that person's contacts to most quickly find additional cases.

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #79 on: November 29, 2021, 02:24:00 PM »
The world has gone apeshit crazy.

This was discovered on THURSDAY. There are ZERO cases in the US. Nobody knows ANYTHING about it yet.

The world: PAAAAAAAAAANIC!!!!!!




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