Author Topic: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant  (Read 11553 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #80 on: November 29, 2021, 02:33:13 PM »
The world has gone apeshit crazy.

This was discovered on THURSDAY. There are ZERO cases in the US. Nobody knows ANYTHING about it yet.

The world: PAAAAAAAAAANIC!!!!!!
Maybe it is because we have seen this movie before?
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Offline Yehuda57

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #81 on: November 29, 2021, 02:41:42 PM »
There are reasonable arguments for and against border restrictions.  What I think is not reasonable is to characterize the border restrictions as unwarranted hysterical panic.

Why would it be unreasonable if someone (let's say Biden) argues that it is good policy to close the borders, but they are also on record as saying such policy was xenophobic hysteria when Trump did it? Unless they would admit to being wrong and explain why they changed their minds, it is quite blatantly unwarranted hysterical panic (and xenophobic, I guess), or unreasonable policy based on politics and not science.

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Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #82 on: November 29, 2021, 02:43:15 PM »


You're showing this as a positive feedback cycle, which is generally not sustainable.  Take this positive feedback cycle, for another example.  The baby's head presses on the cervix, stimulating muscle contractions, which pushes the baby so that its head presses on the cervix, which stimulates more muscle contractions, and cycling over and over again. 



Clearly this is not sustainable, and sooner or later the cycle must stop, as the baby's head is forced out through the cervix. 

So what do you think would allow us to exit from the new variant-surging cases cycle?

Offline avromie7

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #83 on: November 29, 2021, 03:09:31 PM »
You're showing this as a positive feedback cycle, which is generally not sustainable.  Take this positive feedback cycle, for another example.  The baby's head presses on the cervix, stimulating muscle contractions, which pushes the baby so that its head presses on the cervix, which stimulates more muscle contractions, and cycling over and over again. 



Clearly this is not sustainable, and sooner or later the cycle must stop, as the baby's head is forced out through the cervix. 

So what do you think would allow us to exit from the new variant-surging cases cycle?
Regime change?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #84 on: November 29, 2021, 03:15:38 PM »
Why would it be unreasonable if someone (let's say Biden) argues that it is good policy to close the borders, but they are also on record as saying such policy was xenophobic hysteria when Trump did it? Unless they would admit to being wrong and explain why they changed their minds, it is quite blatantly unwarranted hysterical panic (and xenophobic, I guess), or unreasonable policy based on politics and not science.

The way you phrase this, it sounds a bit like "Have you stopped beating your wife?" and I'm not sure what you really want to ask.

Is it "Should Biden give an in-depth explanation of everything he's ever said about border closings, and help resolve any seeming conflicts between things he's said at different times?"

My answer to that would be No.  He's neither a historian nor a teacher not a political pundit.  If you honestly want to understand why a president (or a teacher or a parent or a posek) would give different responses at different times, you probably need to analyze that yourself, or query others who have the time to analyze it.

Or are you asking "If Biden doesn't explain all his thoughts on border closings, should we conclude that his decision-making is unreasonable?"

Again, I would say No, that seems like a rather superficial basis for drawing such conclusions.

Or are you asking "Why was Trump castigated as xenophobic when he announced border closings, and Biden is not?"

That's an interesting question, which Psaki partly answered.  Just look at the details of communication by the two presidents. 

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #85 on: November 29, 2021, 03:21:51 PM »
Regime change?
No, "regime change" is like "cesarean section".  It's external to the system being described.  Your answer should work within the system.

Offline yungermanchik

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #86 on: November 29, 2021, 03:25:51 PM »
No, "regime change" is like "cesarean section".  It's external to the system being described.  Your answer should work within the system.
I think you missed the title of the model. That is the system.
Small people talk about other people.
Average people talk about things
BIG PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IDEAS.

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #87 on: November 29, 2021, 03:35:51 PM »
I think you missed the title of the model. That is the system.
I read the title, and understood that it was someone's idea of a joke.  But I answered it as if it were serious (my idea of a joke...)

Offline a mirrer

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #88 on: November 29, 2021, 03:40:00 PM »
Would have to see his numbers.
see here for some of his predictions that were off by an order of magnitude https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #89 on: November 29, 2021, 03:53:53 PM »
see here for some of his predictions that were off by an order of magnitude https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6
All these models were based on what they knew at the time. Don't want to rehash everything but these numbers have been brought up many times: When updated data in the Imperial teamís model1 indicated that the United Kingdomís health service would soon be overwhelmed with severe cases of COVID-19, and might face more than 500,000 deaths if the government took no action, Prime Minister Boris Johnson almost immediately announced stringent new restrictions on peopleís movements. The same model suggested that, with no action, the United States might face 2.2 million deaths; it was shared with the White House and new guidance on social distancing quickly followed.

Were these dire predictions off?
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Offline Yehuda57

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #90 on: November 29, 2021, 04:17:11 PM »
The way you phrase this, it sounds a bit like "Have you stopped beating your wife?" and I'm not sure what you really want to ask.

Is it "Should Biden give an in-depth explanation of everything he's ever said about border closings, and help resolve any seeming conflicts between things he's said at different times?"

My answer to that would be No.  He's neither a historian nor a teacher not a political pundit.  If you honestly want to understand why a president (or a teacher or a parent or a posek) would give different responses at different times, you probably need to analyze that yourself, or query others who have the time to analyze it.

Or are you asking "If Biden doesn't explain all his thoughts on border closings, should we conclude that his decision-making is unreasonable?"

Again, I would say No, that seems like a rather superficial basis for drawing such conclusions.

Or are you asking "Why was Trump castigated as xenophobic when he announced border closings, and Biden is not?"

That's an interesting question, which Psaki partly answered.  Just look at the details of communication by the two presidents.



You stated that both positions have reasonable reasoning, and that you didn't think it fair to call closures hysterical.

I was saying, I thought clearly enough, that the very people taking the closure position once felt very differently about it. And yes, they should give *some* explanation at the very least. And his press secretary was given the golden opportunity to do so, and instead of explaining, she lied and said his opposition was because of the xenophobic tweets about the name Trump gave the virus when his opposition was stated explicitly to the policy and came months before Trump used that name.

But you know this. You know what I was saying. You know Biden can't answer this without saying "I was wrong". You might also know that calling Trump a racist or xenophobe is a position I'd agree with.

If the policy makers can't admit to being wrong in the past due to staking positions on political grounds rather than scientific, then we have every reason to believe they are continuing to base policy on politics or hysteria rather than science or public health.
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Offline S209

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #91 on: November 29, 2021, 06:15:10 PM »
see here for some of his predictions that were off by an order of magnitude https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6
I know little about him but itís very clear that
A) the models were partly based on certain assumptions that couldnít have been known either way at the time as it was too early for studies to have been conducted and
B) the models state clearly that this was the outcome with no interventions.

As you are well aware there was plenty of intervention globally so itís impossible to know what would have happened. Certainly the vast majority of the world changed their personal habits dramatically, and plenty of people died anyway.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #92 on: November 29, 2021, 06:25:35 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline biobook

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #93 on: November 29, 2021, 11:33:28 PM »
You stated that both positions have reasonable reasoning, and that you didn't think it fair to call closures hysterical.
Saying that border closures are due to "panic" seems to imply that it was a brainless emotional decision.  One could provide rational reasons for or against border closures, which would make for a more convincing argument.

Quote
I was saying, I thought clearly enough, that the very people taking the closure position once felt very differently about it. And yes, they should give *some* explanation at the very least. And his press secretary was given the golden opportunity to do so, and instead of explaining, she lied and said his opposition was because of the xenophobic tweets about the name Trump gave the virus when his opposition was stated explicitly to the policy and came months before Trump used that name.

But you know this.
No, I don't know this.  The tweet you cite refers to something that Biden allegedly said on January 31, 2020, when he had no role in policy-making and was heading a presidential campaign that we were sure would go nowhere.  I honestly did not pay  much attention to Biden then, and certainly don't recall his saying anything about border closures. 

Do you have a link to this?  All I see is the Fox reporter saying "Before Joe Biden was president, he said that Covid travel restrictions on foreign countries were hysterical, xenophobia and fear-mongering."  Do you have a source for this? 


Quote
You know what I was saying.
No, I didn't know what you were saying, which is why I asked for clarification.

Quote
If the policy makers can't admit to being wrong in the past due to staking positions on political grounds rather than scientific, then we have every reason to believe they are continuing to base policy on politics or hysteria rather than science or public health.
This is just silly.  You can support or criticize the current policy on its merits, without demanding that politicians recite al chet or provide dissertation-worthy analyses of their decisions.

Offline Yehuda57

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #94 on: November 29, 2021, 11:42:46 PM »

Saying that border closures are due to "panic" seems to imply that it was a brainless emotional decision.  One could provide rational reasons for or against border closures, which would make for a more convincing argument.
No, I don't know this.  The tweet you cite refers to something that Biden allegedly said on January 31, 2020, when he had no role in policy-making and was heading a presidential campaign that we were sure would go nowhere.  I honestly did not pay  much attention to Biden then, and certainly don't recall his saying anything about border closures. 

Do you have a link to this?  All I see is the Fox reporter saying "Before Joe Biden was president, he said that Covid travel restrictions on foreign countries were hysterical, xenophobia and fear-mongering."  Do you have a source for this? 

No, I didn't know what you were saying, which is why I asked for clarification.
This is just silly.  You can support or criticize the current policy on its merits, without demanding that politicians recite al chet or provide dissertation-worthy analyses of their decisions.

There's a link to the Washington Post timeline in the original tweet I posted.

It's not about an al chet. It's about the reasoning behind the policy. When Biden was running for office he said the border closure policy was xenophobic hysteria. Now, others are saying closing the borders for a new variant we know very little about is a panic move, which would be similar to the irrationality ascribed by Biden previously (sans the xenophobia). If you want to convince me it's reasonable, explain to me what changed. Why did China's borders need to remain open while South Africa's borders need to more be closed?

ETA: I'm not trying to pin Biden's hypocrisy on you. You stated that both sides are reasonable, and the unreasonable thing is to call the closures (irrational) panic. Hence my diatribe that it is the very people closing borders now who began the "border closing = panic" rhetoric in the first place, so it is perfectly reasonable to conclude that either side is not being reasonable.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2021, 11:47:58 PM by Yehuda57 »
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #95 on: November 29, 2021, 11:49:02 PM »
If you want to convince me it's reasonable, explain to me what changed. Why did China's borders need to remain open while South Africa's borders need to more be closed?
Maybe 770k+ deaths changed his position?
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Offline Yehuda57

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #96 on: November 29, 2021, 11:51:43 PM »
Maybe 770k+ deaths changed his position?
Ok, so say that. And explain why the previous border closures that didn't prevent those deaths were different to the closures now and why these ones will prevent deaths.
But please don't claim it's because of a tweet that came almost 3 months later.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #97 on: November 29, 2021, 11:56:00 PM »
Ok, so say that. And explain why the previous border closures that didn't prevent those deaths were different to the closures now and why these ones will prevent deaths.
But please don't claim it's because of a tweet that came almost 3 months later.
I think it would be fair to say everyone's positions have changed since the beginning of this.
No one knew at the beginning this many would die. Just like the last admin didn't know instead of focusing on Chine it should have been Europe at that time.

ETA: Just to get the facts straight. He never mentioned the travel ban in the tweet. And in the debate, he said his tweet was about Trump overall and not the travel band. Don't shoot the messenger.  :)

"We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus. We need to lead the way with science ó not Donald Trumpís record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency."
« Last Edit: November 30, 2021, 12:02:54 AM by CountValentine »
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Offline Dan

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #98 on: November 30, 2021, 12:11:35 AM »
He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency."
Well thank G-d we have now had the 2 worst possible people to lead our country through a global health emergency. 🤦‍♂️
Can't wait to see who is next to step up to the plate.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Sky Is Falling! Yet Another Variant
« Reply #99 on: November 30, 2021, 12:15:14 AM »
Well thank G-d we have now had the 2 worst possible people to lead our country through a global health emergency. 🤦‍♂️
Can't wait to see who is next to step up to the plate.
He is trying everything he can to get individuals vaccinated.
Maybe we will have Dr Death next.  :)
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch