2022 Midterm Elections

[Dan]

They put Zeldin as a 3% chance of winning

OK?

[dovy2]

Now they have it at 50/50

[Dan]

Now they have it at 50/50

Was 71D/29R just 6 weeks ago. Wild.

Fetterman agreeing to debate may have flipped control of the Senate.

[YitzyS]

Just putting it out there... as someone who tends to consider himself a Republican, I think the best thing for the party is if Dems maintain control of the Senate after this election.

It's almost certain that Rs will take over the house, which gives them investigation power and the ability to stop any of Biden's laws. Why do they need both houses, which can complicate things for the next election? The chances of them needed the Senate to stop a court pick seems minimal at this point.

[Dan]

It's almost certain that Rs will take over the house, which gives them investigation power and the ability to stop any of Biden's laws. Why do they need both houses, which can complicate things for the next election?

Judges?

[imayid2]

Judges?

The chances of them needed the Senate to stop a court pick seems minimal at this point.

[aygart]

Just putting it out there... as someone who tends to consider himself a Republican, I think the best thing for the party is if Dems maintain control of the Senate after this election.

It's almost certain that Rs will take over the house, which gives them investigation power and the ability to stop any of Biden's laws. Why do they need both houses, which can complicate things for the next election? The chances of them needed the Senate to stop a court pick seems minimal at this point.

How many circuit court appointees do you expect over the next 2 years?

[zh cohen]

which can complicate things for the next election?

How does controlling the Senate complicate things for the next election?

[zh cohen]

How many circuit court appointees do you expect over the next 2 years?

Also, cabinet positions.  As they say "personnel is policy"

[CountValentine]

How does controlling the Senate complicate things for the next election?

Someone to blame.

[zagguru]

OK?

I would argue thats highly inaccurate. Every other site has it closer to a slightly lean D or toss up. Hochul would not be campaigning this hard if she thought Zeldin only had a 3% chance...

[CountValentine]

Hochul would not be campaigning this hard if she thought Zeldin only had a 3% chance...

Maybe she is not as stupid as HRC?

[zagguru]

Maybe she is not as stupid as HRC?

or fivethirtyeight is just wrong about the 3%

[CountValentine]

or fivethirtyeight is just wrong about the 3%

Possible but highly unlikely.

[zh cohen]

https://www.twitter.com/esotericcd/status/1587175264173395969

For context, this guy is conservative but very much not an "unskew the polls" guy.

[zh cohen]

Rs should only need to win NV or GA to flip control.

Now AZ is looking good for Republicans too. It was basically tied and now the Libertarian candidate (who was polling an average of 5%) just pulled out and endorsed the Republican (Masters).

[YitzyS]

Possible but highly unlikely.

Polling sites can easily be wrong. They work off of turnout and statistics from previous elections. But if we know that there are special factors that are different about this election - namely that there will be a disproportionate Orthodox Jewish turnout AND that even the hasidic neighborhoods are voting Republican - we can often make a more educated guess than them.

Not saying that they will be totally wrong, but we can look at their number and make an educated projection that the results will skew one way.

[CountValentine]

Polling sites can easily be wrong. They work off of turnout and statistics from previous elections. But if we know that there are special factors that are different about this election - namely that there will be a disproportionate Orthodox Jewish turnout AND that even the hasidic neighborhoods are voting Republican - we can often make a more educated guess than them.

Not saying that they will be totally wrong, but we can look at their number and make an educated projection that the results will skew one way.

OK but polls are extremely accurate on picking winners. Hopefully they will have an updated poll before the election so we can see the trend.

[zagguru]

OK but polls are extremely accurate on picking winners. Hopefully they will have an updated poll before the election so we can see the trend.

Were they accurate in picking the 2016 election?

[Dan]

Were they accurate in picking the 2016 election?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/