Author Topic: 2022 Midterm Elections  (Read 64271 times)

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 69437
  • Total likes: 18076
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #460 on: October 31, 2022, 08:22:52 PM »
They put Zeldin as a 3% chance of winning
OK?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline dovy2

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Oct 2012
  • Posts: 2403
  • Total likes: 309
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 24
    • View Profile
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #461 on: October 31, 2022, 10:51:56 PM »
Now they have it at 50/50

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 69437
  • Total likes: 18076
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #462 on: October 31, 2022, 10:53:33 PM »
Now they have it at 50/50
Was 71D/29R just 6 weeks ago. Wild.

Fetterman agreeing to debate may have flipped control of the Senate.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline YitzyS

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2015
  • Posts: 5789
  • Total likes: 14109
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 34
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood, NJ
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #463 on: October 31, 2022, 11:48:04 PM »
Just putting it out there... as someone who tends to consider himself a Republican, I think the best thing for the party is if Dems maintain control of the Senate after this election.

It's almost certain that Rs will take over the house, which gives them investigation power and the ability to stop any of Biden's laws. Why do they need both houses, which can complicate things for the next election? The chances of them needed the Senate to stop a court pick seems minimal at this point.

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 69437
  • Total likes: 18076
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #464 on: October 31, 2022, 11:54:38 PM »
It's almost certain that Rs will take over the house, which gives them investigation power and the ability to stop any of Biden's laws. Why do they need both houses, which can complicate things for the next election?
Judges?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline imayid2

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2022
  • Posts: 2413
  • Total likes: 2333
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #465 on: November 01, 2022, 12:05:22 AM »
Judges?
The chances of them needed the Senate to stop a court pick seems minimal at this point.

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 18992
  • Total likes: 15128
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #466 on: November 01, 2022, 12:11:39 AM »
Just putting it out there... as someone who tends to consider himself a Republican, I think the best thing for the party is if Dems maintain control of the Senate after this election.

It's almost certain that Rs will take over the house, which gives them investigation power and the ability to stop any of Biden's laws. Why do they need both houses, which can complicate things for the next election? The chances of them needed the Senate to stop a court pick seems minimal at this point.
How many circuit court appointees do you expect over the next 2 years?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1733
  • Total likes: 1723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: 412
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #467 on: November 01, 2022, 08:46:00 AM »
which can complicate things for the next election?

How does controlling the Senate complicate things for the next election?

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1733
  • Total likes: 1723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: 412
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #468 on: November 01, 2022, 08:51:58 AM »
How many circuit court appointees do you expect over the next 2 years?

Also, cabinet positions.  As they say "personnel is policy"

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 17342
  • Total likes: 7841
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #469 on: November 01, 2022, 09:14:40 AM »
How does controlling the Senate complicate things for the next election?
Someone to blame.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half
Dow Jones Industrial Average Tops 40000 for the First Time

Offline zagguru

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: May 2014
  • Posts: 3113
  • Total likes: 171
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 70
    • View Profile
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #470 on: November 01, 2022, 10:19:23 AM »
OK?

I would argue thats highly inaccurate. Every other site has it closer to a slightly lean D or toss up. Hochul would not be campaigning this hard if she thought Zeldin only had a 3% chance...

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 17342
  • Total likes: 7841
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #471 on: November 01, 2022, 10:21:32 AM »
Hochul would not be campaigning this hard if she thought Zeldin only had a 3% chance...
Maybe she is not as stupid as HRC?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half
Dow Jones Industrial Average Tops 40000 for the First Time

Offline zagguru

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: May 2014
  • Posts: 3113
  • Total likes: 171
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 70
    • View Profile
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #472 on: November 01, 2022, 10:26:11 AM »
Maybe she is not as stupid as HRC?

or fivethirtyeight is just wrong about the 3%

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 17342
  • Total likes: 7841
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #473 on: November 01, 2022, 10:31:20 AM »
or fivethirtyeight is just wrong about the 3%
Possible but highly unlikely.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half
Dow Jones Industrial Average Tops 40000 for the First Time

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1733
  • Total likes: 1723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: 412
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #474 on: November 01, 2022, 11:57:51 AM »
https://www.twitter.com/esotericcd/status/1587175264173395969

For context, this guy is conservative but very much not an "unskew the polls" guy.

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1733
  • Total likes: 1723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: 412
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #475 on: November 01, 2022, 01:54:21 PM »
Rs should only need to win NV or GA to flip control.

Now AZ is looking good for Republicans too. It was basically tied and now the Libertarian candidate (who was polling an average of 5%) just pulled out and endorsed the Republican (Masters).

Offline YitzyS

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2015
  • Posts: 5789
  • Total likes: 14109
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 34
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood, NJ
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #476 on: November 01, 2022, 04:21:39 PM »
Possible but highly unlikely.
Polling sites can easily be wrong. They work off of turnout and statistics from previous elections. But if we know that there are special factors that are different about this election - namely that there will be a disproportionate Orthodox Jewish turnout AND that even the hasidic neighborhoods are voting Republican - we can often make a more educated guess than them.

Not saying that they will be totally wrong, but we can look at their number and make an educated projection that the results will skew one way.

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 17342
  • Total likes: 7841
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #477 on: November 01, 2022, 04:33:26 PM »
Polling sites can easily be wrong. They work off of turnout and statistics from previous elections. But if we know that there are special factors that are different about this election - namely that there will be a disproportionate Orthodox Jewish turnout AND that even the hasidic neighborhoods are voting Republican - we can often make a more educated guess than them.

Not saying that they will be totally wrong, but we can look at their number and make an educated projection that the results will skew one way.
OK but polls are extremely accurate on picking winners. Hopefully they will have an updated poll before the election so we can see the trend.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half
Dow Jones Industrial Average Tops 40000 for the First Time

Offline zagguru

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: May 2014
  • Posts: 3113
  • Total likes: 171
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 70
    • View Profile
Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #478 on: November 01, 2022, 06:51:37 PM »
OK but polls are extremely accurate on picking winners. Hopefully they will have an updated poll before the election so we can see the trend.

Were they accurate in picking the 2016 election?

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 69437
  • Total likes: 18076
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.