2022 Midterm Elections

[zagguru]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

So you think Zeldin only has a 3% chance of winning?

[yuneeq]

So you think Zeldin only has a 3% chance of winning?

4% now

[Dan]

So you think Zeldin only has a 3% chance of winning?

I'm not a pollster. But it sure seems like a long shot.
29% is an order of magnitude greater chance than 3%.

[zh cohen]

OK but polls are extremely accurate on picking winners.

538's predictions are not based on polls alone.

[aygart]

Were they accurate in picking the 2016 election?

The national polls were within the margin of error for the popular vote which is what they measure.

[CountValentine]

Were they accurate in picking the 2016 election?

Anytime you or anyone else wants to bet against their polls you know where to find me.
Some need to understand how odds and probabilities work.

[CountValentine]

The national polls were within the margin of error for the popular vote which is what they measure.

They also measured each state, and they got it wrong. The ones with their head buried in sand take that to mean the polls are not accurate.

[CountValentine]

Dogs can turn elections.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dr-oz-asks-surgeon-to-downplay-candidate-s-role-in-research-that-allegedly-killed-puppies/ar-AA13CxXu?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e51132afa6e44a2cb548271c614551ec

[zh cohen]

Another anecdotal indication that this will be a big wave; The DCCC is putting money into PA's 12th district to support Summer Lee, after assuming she was safe. This is a district that has has a Democrat for almost 30 years and voted for Biden by 20%.

AIPAC, which spent $3mm to try to defeat her in the primary, has also started spending again, their first general election spending.

Hopefully the Jewish community in Pitts can learn from Cleveland...

[Dan]

Another anecdotal indication that this will be a big wave; The DCCC is putting money into PA's 12th district to support Summer Lee, after assuming she was safe. This is a district that has has a Democrat for almost 30 years and voted for Biden by 20%.

AIPAC, which spent $3mm to try to defeat her in the primary, has also started spending again, their first general election spending.

Hopefully the Jewish community in Pitts can learn from Cleveland...

Any push there @farmbochur?

[farmbochur]

Not that I've seen. Lots of lawn signs in Sq Hill for Summer Lee - most of which have been up since the primaries in May.

[Dan]

Not that I've seen. Lots of lawn signs in Sq Hill for Summer Lee - most of which have been up since the primaries in May.

This area was blanketed in Brown signs. Seems like the grass roots effort was far more impressive in CLE.

[zh cohen]

Not that I've seen.

Same. There was a little talk before the primary for those who were registered Democrats, but I haven't heard any mention of it since.

[Dan]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/

[dovy2]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/

Basically, anything can happen, so don't blame us for anything if we're way off.

[yelped]

Basically, anything can happen, so don't blame us for anything if we're way off.

No. They're saying that when it's this close, each of the individual races is in the margin of error, so it can be a landslide either way or very even when you add them together.

[zh cohen]

Any push there @farmbochur?

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1587955741641408512

That is 240 people out of the 50,000 Jews in Pittsburgh.

[aygart]

The Hill: Blood moon lunar eclipse to rise on Election Day.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/science/3717427-blood-moon-lunar-eclipse-to-rise-on-election-day/

[elimmm]

anyone care to add a poll...
did u vote yet?

[CountValentine]

did u vote yet?

Did not vote and will not vote for the first time in a long time.