Author Topic: 2022 Midterm Elections  (Read 64209 times)

Offline zagguru

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Offline yuneeq

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #481 on: November 01, 2022, 07:25:27 PM »
So you think Zeldin only has a 3% chance of winning?

4% now :)
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Offline Dan

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #482 on: November 01, 2022, 07:25:38 PM »
So you think Zeldin only has a 3% chance of winning?
I'm not a pollster. But it sure seems like a long shot.
29% is an order of magnitude greater chance than 3%.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #483 on: November 01, 2022, 07:29:21 PM »
OK but polls are extremely accurate on picking winners.

538's predictions are not based on polls alone.

Offline aygart

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #484 on: November 01, 2022, 07:31:13 PM »
Were they accurate in picking the 2016 election?
The national polls were within the margin of error for the popular vote which is what they measure.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #485 on: November 01, 2022, 07:31:31 PM »
Were they accurate in picking the 2016 election?
Anytime you or anyone else wants to bet against their polls you know where to find me.
Some need to understand how odds and probabilities work.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #486 on: November 01, 2022, 07:33:36 PM »
The national polls were within the margin of error for the popular vote which is what they measure.
They also measured each state, and they got it wrong. The ones with their head buried in sand take that to mean the polls are not accurate.
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Offline CountValentine

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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #488 on: November 02, 2022, 10:20:32 AM »
Another anecdotal indication that this will be a big wave; The DCCC is putting money into PA's 12th district to support Summer Lee, after assuming she was safe. This is a district that has has a Democrat for almost 30 years and voted for Biden by 20%.

AIPAC, which spent $3mm to try to defeat her in the primary, has also started spending again, their first general election spending.

Hopefully the Jewish community in Pitts can learn from Cleveland...

Offline Dan

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #489 on: November 02, 2022, 02:05:58 PM »
Another anecdotal indication that this will be a big wave; The DCCC is putting money into PA's 12th district to support Summer Lee, after assuming she was safe. This is a district that has has a Democrat for almost 30 years and voted for Biden by 20%.

AIPAC, which spent $3mm to try to defeat her in the primary, has also started spending again, their first general election spending.

Hopefully the Jewish community in Pitts can learn from Cleveland...
Any push there @farmbochur?
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Offline farmbochur

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #490 on: November 02, 2022, 02:14:06 PM »
Not that I've seen. Lots of lawn signs in Sq Hill for Summer Lee - most of which have been up since the primaries in May.
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Offline Dan

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #491 on: November 02, 2022, 02:18:50 PM »
Not that I've seen. Lots of lawn signs in Sq Hill for Summer Lee - most of which have been up since the primaries in May.
This area was blanketed in Brown signs. Seems like the grass roots effort was far more impressive in CLE.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #492 on: November 02, 2022, 08:06:50 PM »
Not that I've seen.

Same. There was a little talk before the primary for those who were registered Democrats, but I haven't heard any mention of it since.

Offline Dan

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #493 on: November 03, 2022, 11:03:41 AM »
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline dovy2

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #494 on: November 03, 2022, 11:17:34 AM »
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/
Basically, anything can happen, so don't blame us for anything if we're way off.

Offline yelped

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #495 on: November 03, 2022, 11:25:45 AM »
Basically, anything can happen, so don't blame us for anything if we're way off.
No. They're saying that when it's this close, each of the individual races is in the margin of error, so it can be a landslide either way or very even when you add them together.

Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #496 on: November 03, 2022, 11:39:02 AM »

Offline aygart

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #497 on: November 04, 2022, 11:23:19 AM »
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline elimmm

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #498 on: November 05, 2022, 10:02:06 PM »
anyone care to add a poll...
did u vote yet?

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #499 on: November 05, 2022, 10:08:04 PM »
did u vote yet?
Did not vote and will not vote for the first time in a long time.
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