Numbers manipulated to create a narrative

[jye]

Perhaps a thread for examples of number manipulation is in order. I’m sure there are hundreds of examples but I just happened to come across this one:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/evictions-are-piling-us-covid-era-protections-end-rents-climb-rcna54798

“Eviction filings have been on the rise and were above their historical averages in half of the 1,059 counties tracked by Legal Services Corp., a federally-funded legal aid group, during either August or September.”

Sounds like an eviction crisis. Not. If numbers are above average in half of the counties tracked, numbers must necessarily be BELOW AVERAGE in the other half. Even in the half of the counties that were above average, it was only when looking at EITHER AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER but not both. So half of all counties weren’t even above average in either August or September and the other half had above average numbers in either August or September individually but not all were above average for both months combined.  In other words, numbers for August and September were actually BELOW average in a majority of all of the counties! What we have are numbers showing historically low eviction rates being manipulated to attempt to portray the opposite narrative.

[yitzgar]

Perhaps a thread for examples of number manipulation is in order. I’m sure there are hundreds of examples but I just happened to come across this one:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/evictions-are-piling-us-covid-era-protections-end-rents-climb-rcna54798

“Eviction filings have been on the rise and were above their historical averages in half of the 1,059 counties tracked by Legal Services Corp., a federally-funded legal aid group, during either August or September.”

Sounds like an eviction crisis. Not. If numbers are above average in half of the counties tracked, numbers must necessarily be BELOW AVERAGE in the other half. Even in the half of the counties that were above average, it was only when looking at EITHER AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER but not both. So half of all counties weren’t even above average in either August or September and the other half had above average numbers in either August or September individually but not all were above average for both months combined.  In other words, numbers for August and September were actually BELOW average in a majority of all of the counties! What we have are numbers showing historically low eviction rates being manipulated to attempt to portray the opposite narrative.

Maybe in all the other locations and months they were at average?

[imayid2]

When the flu shot promotion posters tell you the percentage of people who are unvaccinated that are hospitalized for the flu (I think 75%) they make it sound like the vaccine is 75% effective to keep you out of the hospital. In reality it means nothing unless they also tell you the percentage of people who are vaccinated (roughly 50-60) which makes the effectiveness much less than that.

Just took my kids to get vaccinated so I don’t think I can be labeled anti-vax. It just annoys me that they manipulate the numbers.

[hvaces42]

Can anyone explain this ad?

 https://youtu.be/xjeY6-Ls0qM

The ad ends with a random statement that guns are the number one cause of children dying. What does that statistic mean? It cant be true.

[Euclid]

Can anyone explain this ad?

 https://youtu.be/xjeY6-Ls0qM

The ad ends with a random statement that guns are the number one cause of children dying. What does that statistic mean? It cant be true.

https://www.kff.org/private-insurance/press-release/firearms-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-for-children-in-the-united-states-but-rank-no-higher-than-fifth-in-other-industrialized-nations/

[yuneeq]

https://www.kff.org/private-insurance/press-release/firearms-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-for-children-in-the-united-states-but-rank-no-higher-than-fifth-in-other-industrialized-nations/

IOW if a 19 year old adult decides that life sucks it means that guns cause children to die. But by these standards cardiac arrest is the leading cause of kids deaths.

[Yehuda57]

IOW if a 19 year old adult decides that life sucks it means that guns cause children to die. But by these standards cardiac arrest is the leading cause of kids deaths.

Why should that not be counted?

[yitzgar]

Why should that not be counted?

Probably because 19 isn't a kid?

[yuneeq]

Why should that not be counted?

Cardiac arrest should definitely be counted, as it accounts for 100% of children’s deaths. We should also reconsider the definition of children, this study offers the peculiar max age of 19, but in reality a person at any age is a child of someone.

[Yehuda57]

Cardiac arrest should definitely be counted, as it accounts for 100% of children’s deaths. We should also reconsider the definition of children, this study offers the peculiar max age of 19, but in reality a person at any age is a child of someone.

OK, so you don't like the age cut off, but you implied that suicide is also not a valid thing to be counted in gun death stats. Why?

[yuneeq]

OK, so you don't like the age cut off, but you implied that suicide is also not a valid thing to be counted in gun death stats. Why?

Guns cause suicide? Just the mere sight of a that polished black metal creates an irresistible urge to end it all?

[Definitions]

They are partially to blame. If the only way someone could end their life was by going through a meat grinder do you think the suicide rates would be lower?

[yuneeq]

They are partially to blame. If the only way someone could end their life was by going through a meat grinder do you think the suicide rates would be lower?

Absolutely. Yet there are dozens of simple ways to end a life that don’t involve a gun or a meat grinder. Getting rid of guns doesn’t magically solve teenage depression.

[Definitions]

Absolutely. Yet there are dozens of simple ways to end a life that don’t involve a gun or a meat grinder. Getting rid of guns doesn’t magically solve teenage depression.

Why did the people that used guns choose guns as opposed to the dozens of other ways?

[drosenberg88429]

America does have pretty high suicide rates compared to international average, both teenage and general. However, it's hard to know if this can be attributed to gun availability, or if there are other factors at play. It certainly can't be solely blamed on guns (although gunshot is basically the most effective common suicide method). Scandanavian countries also have pretty high suicide rates, for example, even though guns aren't really common there. (Overall, I think Asian countries will have higher suicide rates than non Asian - possibly because it's culturally honorable?) I'm sure there is plenty of research done on these topics that should be easy to access.

[drosenberg88429]

Why did the people that used guns choose guns as opposed to the dozens of other ways?

High speed, low pain, high effectiveness, private, low implementation threshold?

[hvaces42]

OK, so you don't like the age cut off, but you implied that suicide is also not a valid thing to be counted in gun death stats. Why?

Bottom line is it is a manipulated number to create a narrative. The age range is manipulated. The categories are manipulated. Accidental vs intentional vs homicide. "Disease" takes way more lives if you dont break it down into categories like cancer etc.

[yuneeq]

America does have pretty high suicide rates compared to international average, both teenage and general. However, it's hard to know if this can be attributed to gun availability, or if there are other factors at play. It certainly can't be solely blamed on guns (although gunshot is basically the most effective common suicide method). Scandanavian countries also have pretty high suicide rates, for example, even though guns aren't really common there. (Overall, I think Asian countries will have higher suicide rates than non Asian - possibly because it's culturally honorable?) I'm sure there is plenty of research done on these topics that should be easy to access.

It is okay to attribute the incremental suicides that are solely linked to easier access to guns, but that is a really low number and wont sound convincing. New Mexico has a slightly lower rate of gun ownership than Texas, and lower % of suicide-by-gun. Yet New Mexico has the most suicides at 25.5/100k and Texas the 11th lowest at 13.6.

Suicides is the 3rd leading cause of death for the ages 10-19. Depression is 99% of the cause, depression + guns is 1% of it. If guns weren’t around then we’d be seeing research that easy access to knives and opioids leads to more suicides. Labeling suicide as a gun death belittles the depression issue. Solve the depression issue and you solved 100% of deaths.

[CountValentine]

Talk about the title being reflected 100% in the thread. Great example @jye

[Yehuda57]

Bottom line is it is a manipulated number to create a narrative. The age range is manipulated. The categories are manipulated. Accidental vs intentional vs homicide. "Disease" takes way more lives if you dont break it down into categories like cancer etc.

It is okay to attribute the incremental suicides that are solely linked to easier access to guns, but that is a really low number and wont sound convincing. New Mexico has a slightly lower rate of gun ownership than Texas, and lower % of suicide-by-gun. Yet New Mexico has the most suicides at 25.5/100k and Texas the 11th lowest at 13.6.

Suicides is the 3rd leading cause of death for the ages 10-19. Depression is 99% of the cause, depression + guns is 1% of it. If guns weren’t around then we’d be seeing research that easy access to knives and opioids leads to more suicides. Labeling suicide as a gun death belittles the depression issue. Solve the depression issue and you solved 100% of deaths.

I mostly agree with you guys, so I'm going to bow out of this. No question the data is being manipulated to create a narrative, as per the thread title. I was just hung up on the point that suicides should be factored into the gun death conversation.