At the same time, once the ball starts rolling, which everyone assumes it will, you become second tier in recruiting if you don't.
For example, if Skadden doesn't match, they won't be able to convince a single recruit to choose them over Cravath. So they match. And so on.
agreed on Skadden (they are surprisingly much less leveraged than we normally assume they are). But check this out to really see where the hurt might be
http://www.americanlawyer.com/id=1202755653121/Firms-Ranked-by-Revenue-Per-Lawyer?slreturn=20160506233123 &
http://www.americanlawyer.com/id=1202755652747. places like DLA Piper, baker Mckenzie and K&L Gates, and smaller places that have a real NY office but many more lawyers outside NY than in NY (Reed Smith/Bryan Cave) look to be firms that will be seriously hurt by these raises esp outside NY, so they are unlikely to allow a raise outside NY (if at all), esp since they arent top recruiters anyway.
I feel like any firm making over $1M in revenue per lawyer/$550k VPL is prob able to make the raise without a blink, esp since we may see lower bonuses. Those firms won't gain enough proportionally by holding back the bonuses (won't pick up better partner talent for the incremental savings) and in any event won't lose partners for raising since most heavy hitters will also raise, limiting the greener grass options to virtually status quo.