Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 305564 times)

Offline KidOOO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1260 on: August 12, 2015, 05:39:21 PM »
What do you guys think about dividend stocks? For example CVX  dividend is at 5% now. Why isn't that a steal?

Offline good sam

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1261 on: August 12, 2015, 06:17:51 PM »
What do you guys think about dividend stocks? For example CVX  dividend is at 5% now. Why isn't that a steal?
My understanding, feel free to CMIIW:

Basically, the dividend is priced into the stock. When the company releases earnings, there's a certain amount that has to be paid out in dividends so the stock price will only reflect the amount of earnings exceeding the amount that has to be paid out. If there was no dividend, more cash from earnings would be retained by the company and the stock price would reflect the additional cash. In a perfect market, it should even out.

The benefit of solid dividend stocks is that they're able to pay out even when earnings are down, so your returns are more steady and predictable. Of course companies can always change the amount of their dividend so it's important to research how steady the dividend has been over the years and if there's been steady dividend growth.
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline good sam

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1262 on: August 12, 2015, 06:23:18 PM »
So I'm guessing you think Apples real value more than doubled in the past 2 years?
Based on what previously unknown information did the company gain around 400b in market cap?

The answer is simple.

Fools got burned when Apple got ahead of itself at over $700, and the same fools kept preaching not to buy when the valuation was cheap at $400. Now, those same fools think Apple should be at the equivalent of $1400+.

How efficient is a market where the worlds biggest company drops 50% and jumps 300-400% within the span of 2 years, when nothing has changed?
The reason your analysis is wrong is because your forgetting that the most important variable in valuing a company is its growth potential which is speculative. That can change drastically in a short period of time.
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1263 on: August 12, 2015, 07:01:20 PM »
How efficient is a market where the worlds biggest company drops 50% and jumps 300-400% within the span of 2 years, when nothing has changed?
I think that most of even the most fervent believers of efficient markets aren't referring to the short term
You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say can and will be used to start a religious discussion.

Offline Zevi16

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1264 on: August 13, 2015, 01:45:11 PM »
hi
where is a good place to deal online stocks in england?

Offline Yeki89

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1265 on: August 13, 2015, 02:05:12 PM »
If you are trading US Stock, any US platform can work
Fidelity, Scottstrader ect

Offline Zevi16

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1266 on: August 13, 2015, 02:06:57 PM »
If you are trading US Stock, any US platform can work
Fidelity, Scottstrader ect
No most of them require a SSN.

Offline Yeki89

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1267 on: August 13, 2015, 02:07:17 PM »
Anyone invested in FBIOX? BH I've made a lot of money on this awesome mutual fund, and it keeps going up. :)
Yes, I have shares in this MF.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1268 on: August 14, 2015, 07:55:02 AM »
I think that most of even the most fervent believers of efficient markets aren't referring to the short term

Hmm...that's the whole idea of efficient market theory, that the current stock price takes into account all available news, rumors, and analysis....

Why you're referring to is more in line with Benjamin Graham- ie. In the short term the market acts like a voting machine (prices go up and down based on popularity among speculators), while in the long term the market is like a weighing machine (more reflective of real value). This has nothing to do with efficient market theory, it's actually almost completely opposite of it.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2015, 08:21:13 AM by yuneeq »
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1269 on: August 14, 2015, 08:17:53 AM »
My understanding, feel free to CMIIW:

Basically, the dividend is priced into the stock. When the company releases earnings, there's a certain amount that has to be paid out in dividends so the stock price will only reflect the amount of earnings exceeding the amount that has to be paid out. If there was no dividend, more cash from earnings would be retained by the company and the stock price would reflect the additional cash. In a perfect market, it should even out.

The benefit of solid dividend stocks is that they're able to pay out even when earnings are down, so your returns are more steady and predictable. Of course companies can always change the amount of their dividend so it's important to research how steady the dividend has been over the years and if there's been steady dividend growth.

Well stocks aren't always priced right, so the dividend can be the extra cherry on top when buying undervalued stocks. If you find a good value stock with a dividend it's a must buy.
That was true when I bought MSFT, AAPL, and ALK a few years ago.Reinvest using a DRIP and the profits can add up quickly.

The reason your analysis is wrong is because your forgetting that the most important variable in valuing a company is its growth potential which is speculative. That can change drastically in a short period of time.

LMAO. One day mister yoyo investor says Apple is gonna gonna grow to a trillion dollars and therefore it's worth a trillion dollars? And the next day mister yoyo wakes up and decides Apple will shrivel up and die a slow death and now it's worth 100 billion? Growth speculation accounts for high P/Es in startups and certain companies. For the biggest company in the world you shouldn't be so fickle to expect it to double when you have years of historic data of sales, growth, net income and etc. that doesn't suggest such growth.

I am curious to hear what new Apple products account for the doubling and tripling of apples market cap. And I'm curious to hear what lack of new products 2 years ago accounted for a 50% drop compared to today, where all we have new since then is the Apple watch (bust).

I like investors (speculators) like you.
It gives responsible investors some stocks to make money on.
Live forever or die trying.

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1270 on: August 21, 2015, 03:39:38 PM »
Correction it is

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1271 on: August 21, 2015, 03:43:19 PM »
Goal: pour every single $ sitting available waiting to buy TWTR, MSFT at a good price today before closing bell.
Good times.

Offline Centro

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1272 on: August 21, 2015, 03:54:31 PM »
I cannot look at my portfolio today, it just hurts...

Offline Ephraimh

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1273 on: August 21, 2015, 03:57:37 PM »

I cannot look at my portfolio today, it just hurts...
It shouldn't, buy more from the stuff you love...
Fed, China, oil, can't kill a solid spreadsheet!
Still remember Greece?? I bet not

Offline coralsnake

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #1274 on: August 21, 2015, 04:01:17 PM »
I cannot look at my portfolio today, it just hurts...
Market was ready for a pullback.

Heres hoping for more. ??? ;D
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