Inspired by this post:
If we keep these numbers up, the Trump will win in 2024.
If (when?) Trump loses, would he be the favorite to win it all in 2024? I say probably yes. Reasons:
1) Trump would probably be the favorite to get the R nomination, as Pence would presumably not want to challenge him directly and he’s extremely polarizing with a solid committed base. Might scare off other serious contenders.
2) Biden/Harris are nearly guaranteed to be presiding over a poor economy, feeling the true effects of 1-2 years of COVID and its accompanying effects, along with quite predictable policy decisions.
3) People are likely to remember Trump somewhat more favorably in hindsight than they do now, where he’s at a relative low in his presidency because of COVID and some recent mistakes. He’ll probably be remembered for the excellent economy he had for most of his tenure.