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« Last edited by ExGingi on November 27, 2023, 05:15:11 PM »

Author Topic: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION  (Read 742791 times)

Offline Chuchum Ainer

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11080 on: May 29, 2024, 11:22:06 PM »
They're all over Twitter. Check Yair Lapid's tweets for example. There are no clips. Only one slide.

Thanks
Watched the whole clip. Wild. (There's definitely other theories I could come up with. But the data is interesting)

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11081 on: May 29, 2024, 11:28:18 PM »
Thanks
Watched the whole clip. Wild. (There's definitely other theories I could come up with. But the data is interesting)

Go ahead. Offer your theories.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11082 on: May 29, 2024, 11:35:01 PM »
Go ahead. Offer your theories.

I didn't watch the clip. The kibbutzim near the border are left wing. The ones that are more right wing had closed gates for Shabbos. That gave security guys an extra few precious minutes to get armed and into position (at Saad and Alumim). There was another more right wing kibbutz that had a locked gate, though I'm not sure if that was because of Shabbos or if they got a warning of sorts.

The nova festival attendees would likely skew almost entirely left.

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11084 on: May 30, 2024, 12:07:34 AM »
I didn't watch the clip. The kibbutzim near the border are left wing. The ones that are more right wing had closed gates for Shabbos. That gave security guys an extra few precious minutes to get armed and into position (at Saad and Alumim). There was another more right wing kibbutz that had a locked gate, though I'm not sure if that was because of Shabbos or if they got a warning of sorts.

The nova festival attendees would likely skew almost entirely left.
I don't think he's counting the festival attendees. The data points that he's using would be available specifically for residents.
And he accounts for, and discusses, the distance/proximity/location factors

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11085 on: May 30, 2024, 12:11:59 AM »


I don't think he's counting the festival attendees. The data points that he's using would be available specifically for residents.
And he accounts for, and discusses, the distance/proximity/location factors

Kfar Azah is literally across the road from Saad. Does he really think that one was decimated and one wasn't was because of the politics of the residents?


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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11086 on: May 30, 2024, 12:20:14 AM »

Kfar Azah is literally across the road from Saad. Does he really think that one was decimated and one wasn't was because of the politics of the residents?

No. But he posits that the politics led to practical differences.  You point to locked gates, that might be a factor. Are all the right wing kibbutzim (or whatever type of settlement) shomer Shabbos? That doesn't contradict his findings, it's just another practical difference that might be related to political leanings.

Locked gates might also indicate a general mistrust of the Gazans and of non-alarmist directives.
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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11087 on: May 30, 2024, 12:24:59 AM »
IDF Arabic Spokesperson Reveals Hamas' Internal Document Exposing Theft Plans

Brigadier General Avichay Adraee, the IDF spokesperson for Arabic media, has unveiled an internal Hamas document outlining the movement's plan to rob bank safes in Gaza, followed by the theft of hundreds of millions of shekels from branches of the Bank of Palestine in Gaza. A month later, hundreds of millions of shekels were indeed stolen from the bank's funds in the region.

The IDF revealed a document drafted by a prominent Hamas member named Abu Jihad on March 10, 2024. The document indicates that due to the economic crisis faced by the movement during the war, Hamas members looted branches of the Bank of Palestine in Gaza, stealing more than 400 million shekels.

A Hamas official wrote in the document, which was uncovered during the ground operation in Gaza and sent to another member of the movement named Abu Jamal: "We received information about the presence of significant sums in more than one bank, such as the Bank of Jerusalem and the Bank of Palestine. Given our liquidity shortage, I would like to discuss the possibility of seizing these amounts from the banks formally, provided they are returned after the war, or informally and not returned, especially since the banks have Israeli insurance and are compensated legally."

According to available information, at the beginning of February, before the document was drafted, Hamas-affiliated thugs threatened employees of the Bank of Palestine in the Al-Rimal neighborhood of Gaza City to withdraw cash from the bank's safes. On April 16, about a month after the idea of stealing the money was discussed in the aforementioned document, Hamas members stole hundreds of millions of shekels from the branch. Two days later, they robbed another branch in Gaza City, stealing tens of millions of shekels. On April 19, they carried out another robbery at the bank's main branch in Gaza City, stealing hundreds of millions of shekels.

"While the residents of Gaza are experiencing an economic and social crisis, Hamas is shamelessly stealing from the citizens of Gaza to ensure its survival and that of its members, funding its terrorist activities at the expense and from the pockets of the people of Gaza," said the IDF spokesperson in Arabic.


translation of the document:

In the name of Allah, the Most Merciful, the Most Compassionate

To: Brother Abu Jamal

Subject: Plan


Peace be upon you and the mercy of Allah and His blessings,

Due to the economic crisis we are facing during the war and the lack of liquidity, we have prepared a plan to seize money from the banks.

  • Seizing Funds from Banks:
    We have received information about the presence of large sums of money in several banks, such as the Bank of Palestine and the Bank of Jerusalem. Given our liquidity shortage, I would like to discuss the possibility of formally seizing these amounts from the banks, provided they are returned to them after the war, or informally seizing them without returning, especially since the banks have Israeli insurance and are legally compensated.
  • Economic Crisis:
    The ongoing economic crisis has led us to consider this approach. We are facing a severe shortage of funds, which is affecting our ability to operate and sustain our activities.



Financial Details:

  • Monthly Expenses:

Salaries: 7,000 NIS per person for 1,000 individuals, totaling 7,000,000 NIS.
Operational Costs: Various expenses including transportation, logistics, and maintenance, estimated at 500,000 NIS monthly.

Additional Expenses:

Special Operations: Funds required for specific missions and projects, estimated at 350,000 NIS.
Emergency Funds: Reserved for unforeseen circumstances, estimated at 100,000 NIS.

Execution Plan:
Step 1: Gather intelligence on bank locations and their security measures.
Step 2: Mobilize teams to execute the seizure of funds with minimal risk and maximum efficiency.
Step 3: Secure and transport the seized funds to our storage locations.
Step 4: Monitor the situation and ensure the safety of our operatives.

Important Notes:


All operatives involved in this plan should adhere to strict confidentiality.
Coordination with other units is crucial to avoid detection and ensure the success of the operation.
We must be prepared to handle any legal repercussions and have contingency plans in place.

Conclusion:

This plan is critical for our survival and the continuation of our operations. The funds obtained will be used to support our activities and ensure the well-being of our members. We must act swiftly and decisively to achieve our goals.

Sincerely,

Abu Jihad

10.3.2024

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11088 on: May 30, 2024, 12:26:07 AM »


No. But he posits that the politics led to practical differences.  You point to locked gates, that might be a factor. Are all the right wing kibbutzim (or whatever type of settlement) shomer Shabbos? That doesn't contradict his findings, it's just another practical difference that might be related to political leanings.

Statistics can be twisted every which way. Can you imagine the outcry if a lefty would have said Merkaz Harav, Har Nof, etc were due to datiim not being "practically safe" or whatever.

Again, I didn't watch the clip, and I won't. It seems rather strange to me that you would be defending a viewpoint that seems (based on the descriptions here) to run counter to the kochi v'otzem yadi attitude that you so often decry.

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11090 on: May 30, 2024, 02:00:54 AM »

Kfar Azah is literally across the road from Saad. Does he really think that one was decimated and one wasn't was because of the politics of the residents?
I'd love to see some data and analysis from a more secular left leaning academic (as discussed elsewhere, data can be twisted any which way)

That said, that is kinda his point. the two are the same distance, so why was one much harder hit? the data shows a correlation between right leaning and less deaths. That raises questions, not answers.

Im curious if personal gun ownership played a roll. Im also curious how many of the residents of both places were home or away. Also curious as to the average/median ages of those places. also curious how many had served in the military in both. How many were native born vs olim. male/female. etc.

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11091 on: May 30, 2024, 02:02:50 AM »

Statistics can be twisted every which way. Can you imagine the outcry if a lefty would have said Merkaz Harav, Har Nof, etc were due to datiim not being "practically safe" or whatever.

Again, I didn't watch the clip, and I won't. It seems rather strange to me that you would be defending a viewpoint that seems (based on the descriptions here) to run counter to the kochi v'otzem yadi attitude that you so often decry.
I mentioned that data could be twisted any which way before I saw your post, lol.

Watch the clip... doesn't make sense to discuss it without seeing it.

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11092 on: May 30, 2024, 02:08:33 AM »
I'd love to see some data and analysis from a more secular left leaning academic (as discussed elsewhere, data can be twisted any which way)

That said, that is kinda his point. the two are the same distance, so why was one much harder hit? the data shows a correlation between right leaning and less deaths. That raises questions, not answers.

Im curious if personal gun ownership played a roll. Im also curious how many of the residents of both places were home or away. Also curious as to the average/median ages of those places. also curious how many had served in the military in both. How many were native born vs olim. male/female. etc.
I'm far from knowledgeable about all the details of Oct 7th, neither the demographics of who lives in the south. 3 kibbutzim I know of were spared (daas tachton) because of locked gates. I'm sure there are more. I'm no statistician or sociologist, but I have heard of ocum's razor.

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11093 on: May 30, 2024, 02:16:50 AM »
Go ahead. Offer your theories.
Assuming the right wing/left wing correlation holds up, what role did intelligence from arab workers play?

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11094 on: May 30, 2024, 03:56:38 AM »
Again, I didn't watch the clip, and I won't. It seems rather strange to me that you would be defending a viewpoint that seems (based on the descriptions here) to run counter to the kochi v'otzem yadi attitude that you so often decry.

I am not defending any viewpoint, to the extent one exists.

The data is for settlements up to 10km from the border (I have no idea whether it would tilt differently if the range was expanded. I have no idea how far they reached).

Anything beyond the actual data was questions or hypothesis to be examined further, trying to understand the correlation. There were no conclusions.

What led him to look into this was multiple "pairs" like Kfar Aza and Saad which are near each other with drastically different outcomes.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2024, 03:59:53 AM by ExGingi »
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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11095 on: May 30, 2024, 09:19:04 AM »

Kfar Azah is literally across the road from Saad. Does he really think that one was decimated and one wasn't was because of the politics of the residents?


multiple correlations like these are the questions that got him started asking.
This clip presents pretty nicely, presenting compelling questions and data without offering any concrete arguments. I don't think discounting it without seeing it is fair to his presentation ability.
I am not defending any viewpoint, to the extent one exists.

Anything beyond the actual data was questions or hypothesis to be examined further, trying to understand the correlation. There were no conclusions.

That said, there are other clips of him (saw one floating from TikTok, him in a car 'selfie'), making actual and passionate appeals to political viewpoint allegiance, and I think it severely taints his message

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11097 on: May 30, 2024, 10:11:56 AM »
It is true that it is unfair of me to so vehemently argue without watching the clip, which is the basis of the OP in the first place. But my Ivrit isn't good enough to capture all the nuance and detail of such a conversation. Regardless, I did watch the clip. And while he touches on some of these points, he doesn't really address them.

He says he has a lot of data to work with, but is that really true? If you remove Nova, army bases, and those killed on the road, what are you left with? Lots of casualties, sadly, though not all that many attacks. The attacks decimated kibbutzim entirely once they got in, but if they were kept out, they were safe. So if you compare the numbers of Saad vs Kfar Azah it's actually 1:1 not 78:0. The amount of massacres is actually a small sample size, IINM fewer than 10.

He doesn't compare the sizes of the communities in question. I don't know the answer to this, but it is entirely possible that many of the "right" neighborhoods were smaller and thus not targeted by Hamas (initially).

Similarly, he includes all areas within 10km, but are they all equal in terms of accessibility? Are they all on the same main roads?

He says Hamas had hours and hours to attack without army backup, which is tragically true. But a little misleading. Places like Mefallesim and Saad fought themselves initially and then got back from the IDF. The places where they had hours to attack where the ones that they had infiltrated completely right at the start, and the locals/IDF didn't have holding positions to defend from.

He uses left and right when he could just as easily use level of religiosity, or maybe, for all we know, what kind of industries the Kibbutzim were involved with. Did he compare how the casualties correlated to the amount of livestock in each kibbutz? IOW, the entire premise for his correlation is based on his agenda. When someone sees Beeri vs Alumim or Saad vs Kfar Azah they could just as easily say Dati vs Chiloni, or agriculture vs manufacturing, or arts vs farming. He sees left vs right.

He mentioned readiness on Oct 6th - to my knowledge, Saad had the same system as Kfar Azah and Beeri (and probably others). There was an ammunition room (house) on the kibbutz, and a group of the locals are the designated security forces, with security heads. Hamas plans showed they knew where the ammo was, where the security heads lived, and planned to neutralize them first. They were successful in places they entered before the warnings were sounded, but places like Saad that had the gates closed for Shabbos reasons, and nothing to do with left, right, security, or attitudes towards "Gazans", had time to get armed and take defensive positions. I forget the name of the kibbutz, and I don't know if it was right or left, but there was a woman head of security who rounded her team immediately and managed to fight them off as well.

Chuchem Ainer spoke of people being armed individually, and again, people in "right" neighborhoods didn't fight off Hamas on their own, their entire neighborhoods weren't breeched.

There is probably more to be said, and I'm sure better statisticians could build a much better case than me, especially people with actual knowledge of the area, people, and the details of the massacres. But the whole thing stinks of a gross "I'm just asking questions" grifter whose greatest contribution to society is farting before he steps out of elevators. I have never heard of this guy before, and don't know a lick of his agenda or politics. That's just the creepy feeling I get listening to him.

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Re: ISRAEL-HAMAS SIMCHAT TORAH WAR NEWS AND DISCUSSION
« Reply #11099 on: May 30, 2024, 10:46:29 AM »
Interesting initiative by Eylon Levy

https://www.youtube.com/@IsrCitizenSpox