Just some random thoughts:
- New daily cases haven't been this low since Nov 8 and are steadily dropping, as expected. Hospitalizations are also down almost 40% from the peak on Jan 8, so hopefully we'll see a drop in death counts starting within the next week or 2. The cases never fully disappear between waves, but I think it's safe to say that the worst of the second wave is over.
- Historically, first waves of pandemics hit with a decent size bump, then the second waves hit like a tsunami, followed by a small third wave (smaller than the first). My personal opinion is that the third wave this time will be closer to the second wave, as opposed to the hiccup it has historically been. Never before have variants been able to travel intercontinentally like they do today. Already, the UK variant is doubling every 10 days in the US. It is estimated to be 35-40% more contagious than the strains we've seen here until now. It is also possible that treatment protocols may need to be tweaked to deal with the variants, as evidenced by South Africa suspending use of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine after finding it to be almost ineffective against their current strain.
- I'm curious to see the impact of an unprecedented third wave on the economy and the markets. The third wave looks to be timed to start after this $1.9T package is passed. Additionally, the US's vaccine rollout has been dismal at best, and there will be legitimate questions about the efficacy of the current vaccines and treatments against the newer strains. While the markets rebounded during the first wave and stayed strong during the second wave based on confidence in treatments/vaccines and in the stimulus infusion, there may be less confidence in those things this time around. Volatile markets probably won't help things, especially with Joe the Plumber's money tied up in GME and Dogecoin. I think the third wave may be the pin that pops the bubble.
While everyone loves to hate on the US vaccine distribution, it's actually doing quite well. Other than a few nation states, the only country to distribute more vaccines per capita is the UK.
With nearly 10% of the US population having received at least 1 dose, we should have about 10% of the US population immune (besides for those who already caught the virus) in about a month from now.
Additionally, the rate of distribution is steadily rising, it more than tripled in the past month.