Areivim USA - Coronavirus

[JACKBLUE]

How do you spell PONZI SCHEME?

I don’t care what their flyer says. I have been a member for a year now and

Why are you even a member??😂

[ExGingi]

of course if somone has cancer he can’t sign up, but let’s say a diabetic are some other health issues you could sign up. I know this because my friend is diabetic and he called them to ask if he can sign up and the answer was YES.

Did they ask him what his A1c was?

[S209]

Did they ask him what his A1c was?

That can change in 6 weeks

[avromie7]

Upthread people mentioned a second wave as a possibility. Even if there are no more spikes in deaths in the next 4 years, I signed up in May 2019 and the only month since in which I have not experience a collection for since is August 2019. That would leave them with $28 a year extra, thus taking nearly 15 years to collect the difference.

Regardless, I question your math. $56 a year to get to $400 would be more than 7 years.

I'm a numbers guy, so I'm not sure how I messed the math up so badly.

I got this email from them last Rosh Hashana. Didn't crunch the numbers, but it may be helpful for those trying to do so.

According to these numbers, it would take just over 5 years to catch up. Considering this is a once in a lifetime situation, it should be very doable. I think they should come up with a system to build up a rainy day fund, by adding a small fee like an extra $1 per month. It can also help with the current backlog.

[S209]

Why are you even a member??😂

Because it’s Tzedaka, with a life insurance benefit? Where have you seen me disparage the idea? I love it. I just think they need to address the crisis presented by the pandemic properly or they will dissolve.

I’m a member for 7 years in 2019 they charged me 10 months, but the last 6 years IINM the max was 8 months.

You’re definitely mistaken, according to the people I’ve spoken to.

[aygart]

of course if somone has cancer he can’t sign up, but let’s say a diabetic are some other health issues you could sign up. I know this because my friend is diabetic and he called them to ask if he can sign up and the answer was YES.

Of everything in this thread this is the biggest item showing how there is no way in the world this system can possibly work over the long term.

[JACKBLUE]

You’re definitely mistaken, according to the people I’ve spoken to.

I will look up my CC charges soon and update you. Could be I’m wrong.

[aygart]

I'm a numbers guy, so I'm not sure how I messed the math up so badly.  According to these numbers, it would take just over 5 years to catch up. Considering this is a once in a lifetime situation, it should be very doable. I think they should come up with a system to build up a rainy day fund, by adding a small fee like an extra $1 per month. It can also help with the current backlog.

There is a lot of very fuzzy math which I brought up earlier. Their liabilities are growing much faster than their income. This is without the pandemic.

[S209]

I'm a numbers guy, so I'm not sure how I messed the math up so badly.  According to these numbers, it would take just over 5 years to catch up. Considering this is a once in a lifetime situation, it should be very doable. I think they should come up with a system to build up a rainy day fund, by adding a small fee like an extra $1 per month. It can also help with the current backlog.

That might be an idea. Black swan events do happen, perhaps not to this level but there are mass casualty events from time to time. They need to have a plan to address this and the current crises. Keep in mind they will be behind for quite a while as it is. And raising the price may diminish their pool, thus starting the death spiral.

[S209]

I will look up my CC charges soon and update you. Could be I’m wrong.

Just check your emails for areivim, they email before every charge

[aygart]

Got this from Areivim last year. Pretty impressive roster. Only concern is whether they'd probably need an actuary on board.

Wouldn't an actuarial team be the most important in keeping it sustainable?

[avromie7]

That might be an idea. Black swan events do happen, perhaps not to this level but there are mass casualty events from time to time. They need to have a plan to address this and the current crises. Keep in mind they will be behind for quite a while as it is. And raising the price may diminish their pool, thus starting the death spiral.

I think something like $1/month rainy day surcharge shouldn't affect membership.

[aygart]

That might be an idea. Black swan events do happen, perhaps not to this level but there are mass casualty events from time to time. They need to have a plan to address this and the current crises. Keep in mind they will be behind for quite a while as it is. And raising the price may diminish their pool, thus starting the death spiral.

Is this such a black Swan event among people with unmarried children? 14 is high but shouldn't be causing such stress on a system.

[Shmulie]

Premiums aren’t going up. They won’t charge a penny more then $28 max a month.
Obviously some people are willing to pay now $400 to be able to collect the money faster.

I'm a numbers guy, so I'm not sure how I messed the math up so badly.  According to these numbers, it would take just over 5 years to catch up. Considering this is a once in a lifetime situation, it should be very doable.

So does that mean that anyone signing up now is automatically signing up for $28 a month for the next 5 years (probably much longer)?

---------------------------------

What is the 100k per child supposed to cover? Just the wedding and related expenses? If so 100k is way more than needed (see this board https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=115607.0)
If it's supposed to help cover raising the child from childhood till marriage then it is definitely not enough.

[avromie7]

There is a lot of very fuzzy math which I brought up earlier. Their liabilities are growing much faster than their income. This is without the pandemic.

I'm not understanding why liabilities are growing faster, when they started there were many people who signed up with a lot of kids, I dont think anything is changing. Why do you think the makeup of the pool is different than it was 10 years ago?

[aygart]

I'm not understanding why liabilities are growing faster, when they started there were many people who signed up with a lot of kids, I dont think anything is changing. Why do you think the makeup of the pool is different than it was 10 years ago?

What is higher, the new sign up rate or the birth rate of membership?

[Lurker]

I'm not understanding why liabilities are growing faster, when they started there were many people who signed up with a lot of kids, I dont think anything is changing. Why do you think the makeup of the pool is different than it was 10 years ago?

Maybe because the people they signed up 10 years ago are higher risk now than before and not enough of them have passed through to the stage where they won't need to be paid out? It would take a full generation for the risk to level off.

[avromie7]

So does that mean that anyone signing up now is automatically signing up for $28 a month for the next 5 years (probably much longer)?

Good question, maybe they would need to have the regular collections, and whenever they're is "an open month" they charge everyone who was a member prior to this event.

[avromie7]

What is higher, the new sign up rate or the birth rate of membership?

You also need to factor in the rate of members children getting married

Maybe because the people they signed up 10 years ago are higher risk now than before and not enough of them have passed through to the stage where they won't need to be paid out? It would take a full generation for the risk to level off.

maybe higher risk of death but payout would be lower because they married off half of everyone children.

[Lurker]

You also need to factor in the rate of members children getting married maybe higher risk of death but payout would be lower because they married off half of everyone children.

I think you'll find that the amount of new children those members had roughly equals out the ones they married off, yet every year represents slightly higher risk per member than the previous year.