Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 86113 times)

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #740 on: January 30, 2021, 06:41:56 PM »
Moderate to severe illness. What about the tier below that?

See the chart in this article, I think the clinical trials must have been designed differently with different endpoints being studied.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/30/22257557/antivirus-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-results
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #741 on: January 30, 2021, 07:01:59 PM »
Moderate to severe illness. What about the tier below that?
Moderate is probably any symptom, and without repetitively testing the entire sample cohort, there is no way to know about asymptomatic infection.

They didn't test for it because they didn't want to have the number...
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Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #742 on: January 30, 2021, 07:25:07 PM »
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-setbacks-damp-europes-prospects-for-normal-summer-11611597792?mod=searchresults_pos2&page=1&mod=article_inline


“The EU, which centralizes vaccine procurement for its members, has ordered 2.3 billion doses from six manufacturers and set a target for the region’s governments to immunize 70% of adults in the bloc by the summer, a goal that seems increasingly out of reach.

This means there is little hope of an end to lockdowns and other constraints on public life soon,”

Offline Traveler718

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #743 on: January 30, 2021, 10:43:02 PM »
Antibody can be produced in two cases: when you are infected with the virus, and when you get the vaccine. Antibody looks the same in both cases.  The antibody test just picks up antibody, and the test doesn't "know" whether the antibody had been made in response to the virus or to the vaccine. A positive antibody test doesn't "prove" that you are immune, that is, we don't yet know how much antibody you need to be considered immune.  But whatever that number is, it shouldn't matter whether you got there as a result of getting covid, or as a result of getting the vaccine.   


A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #744 on: January 30, 2021, 10:45:21 PM »
Yes, vaccines produce a narrow subset of infection antibodies, and some assays won't detect those.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 10:56:23 PM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline incendia

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #745 on: January 30, 2021, 10:53:23 PM »
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.

The vaccines only replicates one part (spike protein) of the virus so your body can only make antibodies for that part but its enough to give you protection from getting sick.

A natural infection will produce antibodies for several different parts of the virus. They must be testing for one or more of the antibodies not used in the vaccine.


Offline how

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #746 on: January 30, 2021, 10:58:36 PM »
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.
But if you did test for antibodies after taking the vaccine and you did get a positive result - does that prove that you now have antibodies?

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #747 on: January 30, 2021, 11:03:10 PM »
But if you did test for antibodies after taking the vaccine and you did get a positive result - does that prove that you now have antibodies?
They may not be fully effective yet.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #748 on: January 30, 2021, 11:08:26 PM »
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1355581009568346113


There is light at the end of the tunnel
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Dan

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #749 on: January 30, 2021, 11:13:46 PM »
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.
Fake news.
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.msg2397323#msg2397323
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #750 on: January 30, 2021, 11:15:35 PM »
The vaccines only replicates one part (spike protein) of the virus so your body can only make antibodies for that part but its enough to give you protection from getting sick.

A natural infection will produce antibodies for several different parts of the virus. They must be testing for one or more of the antibodies not used in the vaccine.


Fake news.
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.msg2397323#msg2397323
Seems like some tests will pick up it up, others won't.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #751 on: January 30, 2021, 11:17:05 PM »
Fake news.
Depends which test is used.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Dan

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #752 on: January 30, 2021, 11:18:20 PM »
Depends which test is used.
Roche has been the gold standard. Not sure why people are wasting their time on other tests.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #753 on: January 30, 2021, 11:21:21 PM »
the gold standard. Not sure why people are wasting their time on other
The age old question since קין...
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #754 on: January 30, 2021, 11:29:08 PM »
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.

Where do you get Dr. Glatt's videos?  I used to find them on 5tjt, but they seem to have stopped.

What I wrote above was based on my understanding of what Dr. Bar-Zev had said in that video, and he's the expert, but I would also say that Dr. Glatt is the expert, so I guess the conclusion is that experts are still debating this.  That's actually what the CDC says:
If your body develops an immune response—the goal of vaccination—there is a possibility you may test positive on some antibody tests. Antibody tests indicate you had a previous infection and that you may have some level of protection against the virus. Experts are currently looking at how COVID-19 vaccination may affect antibody testing results.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/facts.html

In addition to possible differences in antibodies, it is also possible that the antibody response is low, but the T cells are high, and maybe the T cells are more important for maintaining immunity after vaccination.

But if you did test for antibodies after taking the vaccine and you did get a positive result - does that prove that you now have antibodies?
You have antibodies, but it's not clear what level of antibodies is enough for immunity, and not clear what the importance of antibodies are relative to T cells for immunity.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/covid-vaccine-labcorp-ceo-says-recipients-dont-need-antibody-test-afterward.html

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #755 on: January 30, 2021, 11:31:05 PM »
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #756 on: January 30, 2021, 11:32:47 PM »
They may not be fully effective yet.
Source?

Offline Dan

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #757 on: January 30, 2021, 11:51:15 PM »
No chance he ever got infected (maybe even asymptomatic)?
Was negative for antibodies before he took the vaccine.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #758 on: January 31, 2021, 12:04:28 AM »
Source?
The original trials. People were positive for antibodies before full efficacy was seen.
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Offline Traveler718

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #759 on: January 31, 2021, 12:05:28 AM »
Where do you get Dr. Glatt's videos?  I used to find them on 5tjt, but they seem to have stopped.


I usually watch them live on Zoom. I signed up to receive the updates and notifications by emailing yiwoodmerecovidupdate@gmail.com. They are all archived on Youtube, just search for Dr. Glatt Covid and they'll all come up.

The point that I quoted from him can be found at
starting at 33:00.