Author Topic: When will a vaccine *really* be available?  (Read 63327 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15140
  • Total likes: 2461
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« on: December 10, 2020, 12:38:55 AM »
Trying to make some plans, when do you think it will be possible to get a Pfizer/Moderna vaccine in US/UK for somebody not on any kind of priority list but willing to pay/travel a little for it?

Part of me says early Jan, part of me says April...
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7584
  • Total likes: 4036
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2020, 01:24:46 AM »
Sometime around Inauguration Day.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline yitzgar

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Dec 2016
  • Posts: 3242
  • Total likes: 1350
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2020, 08:48:56 AM »
Trying to make some plans, when do you think it will be possible to get a Pfizer/Moderna vaccine in US/UK for somebody not on any kind of priority list but willing to pay/travel a little for it?

Part of me says early Jan, part of me says April...
I'd guess somewhere in between. Dont you think by April it will be widely available without having to travel anywhere?

Offline yitzgar

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Dec 2016
  • Posts: 3242
  • Total likes: 1350
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2020, 08:49:41 AM »
Any benefit to pfizer over moderna or vice versa?

Online AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 25K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 31364
  • Total likes: 8261
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2020, 09:20:24 AM »
I'd guess somewhere in between. Dont you think by April it will be widely available without having to travel anywhere?

I think that mostly depends on what percentage of Pfizer/Moderna production gets domestic distribution. How does that get decided anyway? Any idea what their order books look like? Does it depend on how much $$ they’re getting per dose?

DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15140
  • Total likes: 2461
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2020, 12:42:07 PM »
I think that mostly depends on what percentage of Pfizer/Moderna production gets domestic distribution. How does that get decided anyway? Any idea what their order books look like? Does it depend on how much $$ they’re getting per dose?
By the time Biden is in office I'd assume all Moderna US production goes to the US, whether they like it or not. Moderna has Swiss production as well, and Pfizer avoided the issue by basing production in Belgium which has less than 10m residents.

I don't think anybody knows how many vaccines Pfizer is giving the US. That's part of why I think it may be possible to get it in London sooner than the US (the other reason is an infinitely smaller market outside of the NHS, which has already been proven to provide far superior access to Covid testing)
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 25K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 31364
  • Total likes: 8261
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2020, 02:23:13 PM »
By the time Biden is in office I'd assume all Moderna US production goes to the US, whether they like it or not. Moderna has Swiss production as well, and Pfizer avoided the issue by basing production in Belgium which has less than 10m residents.

I don't think anybody knows how many vaccines Pfizer is giving the US. That's part of why I think it may be possible to get it in London sooner than the US (the other reason is an infinitely smaller market outside of the NHS, which has already been proven to provide far superior access to Covid testing)

Idk about other places, but NYC has free and unlimited PCR testing with results within 24-48hrs every time I’ve tested.
DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Offline yitzgar

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Dec 2016
  • Posts: 3242
  • Total likes: 1350
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2020, 02:58:47 PM »
Idk about other places, but NYC has free and unlimited PCR testing with results within 24-48hrs every time I’ve tested.
Took almost 96 hours for me to get results when I tested in NY a couple months ago

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8934
  • Total likes: 4157
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2020, 04:18:50 PM »
April is my guess
Visibly Jewish

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15140
  • Total likes: 2461
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2020, 04:27:59 PM »
Idk about other places, but NYC has free and unlimited PCR testing with results within 24-48hrs every time I’ve tested.
I meant the UK government is allowing the small private medicine establishment to do very well on testing compared to the NHS, not comparing to the US where all medicine is degrees of private
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15140
  • Total likes: 2461
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2020, 04:39:21 PM »
https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1337147912824864768?s=21

By far the most reliable statistician, although he isn’t a prophet about vaccine production & distribution
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline iluv2travel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 1189
  • Total likes: 290
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2020, 06:03:41 PM »
https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1337147912824864768?s=21

By far the most reliable statistician, although he isn’t a prophet about vaccine production & distribution

Assuming that purple equals infections in the bottom graph too, then its showing that by June/July there will be 0 infections. That's really fast for that to happen (I know for some it might even be too long, but perhaps I'm just more pessimistic/realistic). But if it comes true, it's great news.

Offline ReadsTheT&C

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Feb 2011
  • Posts: 687
  • Total likes: 43
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
  • Location: NY
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2020, 07:58:11 PM »
I don't know the answer but I think we'll see the same sort of wild west style kombina capitalism we saw with PPE in March-June with probably the same players too. I am hoping we don't see a thread titled "100 doses of MRNA vaccine $5000 obo".

Offline Moshe123

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 6243
  • Total likes: 923
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Spring Valley
  • Programs: Lost
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2020, 08:03:42 PM »
Knowing our hemishe system, I'll be shocked if organizations like Hatzalah won't put in a huge secret effort to obtain vaccines for our vulnerable and cut the line.

Offline Euclid

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 5152
  • Total likes: 6392
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 5
    • View Profile
When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2020, 08:06:25 PM »
I am hoping we don't see a thread titled "100 doses of MRNA vaccine $5000 obo".
1 million units

Offline Traveler718

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 1269
  • Total likes: 753
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15140
  • Total likes: 2461
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7584
  • Total likes: 4036
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2020, 09:14:59 PM »
“Nobody is going to want to take the vaccine”
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7584
  • Total likes: 4036
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2020, 09:35:17 PM »
any talk about waiting for a vaccine is a blatant lie, as no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and that's being extremely optimistic and probably not realistic
I’m not sure who you call reasonable people but a very large number of epidemiologists have said they believe there will be a mass produced vaccine by January 2021. If you’d bet on an outcome we can take this over to JS and I’d put money down on that happening.
18 MONTH UPDATE 6 MONTH UPDATE: Second vaccine now approved in the U.S., to be distributed this week. CHEMED will have them available next week in Lakewood.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline Euclid

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 5152
  • Total likes: 6392
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 5
    • View Profile
When will a vaccine *really* be available?
« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2020, 09:47:54 PM »
18 MONTH UPDATE 6 MONTH UPDATE: Second vaccine now approved in the U.S., to be distributed this week. CHEMED will have them available next week in Lakewood.
Lots of upset boichs here