When will a vaccine *really* be available?

[AsherO]

So maybe it will now pay for urgent cares go into the business...

Many of the bigger ones in NYC are, but they are having a hard time getting inventory.

It’s gonna flip very quickly (not necessarily at the same time in each state/city), and then the challenge will be to get people to get vaccinated and manage inventory so too many doses don’t go to waste. Appointments will help, but I think this will be the real challenge for the Biden administration. It’ll be a massive challenge to get US vaccine confidence anywhere near U.K./Israel levels. As time goes by confidence will go up, but not quickly enough to keep the vaccination pace going until 90%+ of the 16+ population is vaccinated.

[aygart]

Many of the bigger ones in NYC are, but they are having a hard time getting inventory.

It’s gonna flip very quickly (not necessarily at the same time in each state/city), and then the challenge will be to get people to get vaccinated and manage inventory so too many doses don’t go to waste. Appointments will help, but I think this will be the real challenge for the Biden administration. It’ll be a massive challenge to get US vaccine confidence anywhere near U.K./Israel levels. As time goes by confidence will go up, but not quickly enough to keep the vaccination pace going until 90%+ of the 16+ population is vaccinated.

Yup, they will have difficulty uprooting the mistrust they have sown.

[Euclid]

Yup, they will have difficulty uprooting the mistrust they have sown.

Who's they?

[AsherO]

Yup, they will have difficulty uprooting the mistrust they have sown.

Ds are to blame for mistrust of "Trump's vaccine" that they've sown (though now it's Biden's vaccine).
Rs also carry some blame for downplaying COVID in general.

[PlatinumGuy]

the challenge will be to get people to get vaccinated and manage inventory so too many doses don’t go to waste.

Once supply outpaces demand, wasted doses aren't really a problem for the US.

Appointments will help, but I think this will be the real challenge for the Biden administration. It’ll be a massive challenge to get US vaccine confidence anywhere near U.K./Israel levels. As time goes by confidence will go up, but not quickly enough to keep the vaccination pace going until 90%+ of the 16+ population is vaccinated.

There is no way to predict the future, but Israel had very high hesitancy beforehand, but when push comes to shove people end up getting vaccinated.

Over 90% of secular Jews in Israel 16+ got vaccinated. The issue is with the frum and Arab minorities that are at ~70%. The US is far more cohesive and should have less of that problem.

I don't think vaccine hesitancy will be a big deal at the end of the day.

[Euclid]

Ds are to blame for mistrust of "Trump's vaccine" that they've sown (though now it's Biden's vaccine).
Rs also carry some blame for downplaying COVID in general.

Source? I have no recollection of anyone downplaying the vaccine.

[aygart]

Ds are to blame for mistrust of "Trump's vaccine" that they've sown (though now it's Biden's vaccine).
Rs also carry some blame for downplaying COVID in general.

Yes

[aygart]

Source? I have no recollection of anyone downplaying the vaccine.

Kamala Harris raised questions about whether she would take it

[Yehuda57]

Source? I have no recollection of anyone downplaying the vaccine.

You mean besides Kamala Harris, Cuomo, etc?

[AsherO]

Once supply outpaces demand, wasted doses aren't really a problem for the US.

Yes and no. Just because enough doses for an extra 200m vaccinations (or whatever the number is) doesn’t mean we can’t waste more than that. It’s also a waste of doses that can be used elsewhere around the world.

[AsherO]

Source? I have no recollection of anyone downplaying the vaccine.

I said Rs were downplaying COVID, not the vaccine. If the pandemic is overrated then I don’t need to vaccinate. The whole “but I’m young and healthy and everyone I know already had it” mentality.

[Euclid]

Kamala Harris raised questions about whether she would take it

You mean besides Kamala Harris, Cuomo, etc?

Thanks. Forgot about this.
In my utopia we would have a strict separation between politicians and medical experts. It's like asking a Mikvah lady about the kashrus of the Mikvah.

[AsherO]

Thanks. Forgot about this.
In my utopia we would have a strict separation between politicians and medical experts. It's like asking a Mikvah lady about the kashrus of the Mikvah.

This is tricky because you have government policy experts and officials (CDC, Fauci etc) whose considerations are both political and medical.

I’ve said it before but it’s worth repeating. Public policy has to consider what’s best for everyone, which isn’t always the same exact as the advice you’d give to any one individual.

[Euclid]

This is tricky because you have government policy experts and officials (CDC, Fauci etc) whose considerations are both political and medical.

I’ve said it before but it’s worth repeating. Public policy has to consider what’s best for everyone, which isn’t always the same exact as the advice you’d give to any one individual.

+1000
My utopia ain't the US

Also in my fantasy, people would discuss things with a personal trusted doctor.

[AsherO]

Also in my fantasy, people would discuss things with a personal trusted doctor.

You mean every community needs a local Zelenko or two?

[Lurker]

27.5% of Americans over the age of 18 have received at least one dose. I have to admit that I didn't think we'd be this far along at this point.

[Euclid]

27.5% of Americans over the age of 18 have received at least one dose. I have to admit that I didn't think we'd be this far along at this point.

May your other prediction be as wrong as this one

[Lurker]

May your other prediction be as wrong as this one

If my other prediction is wrong, it will be because of this one. I'm already less confident in it because of the vax success.

[PlatinumGuy]

And test number 5 is positive.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/france-finds-variant-in-brittany-that-evades-standard-tests

[AsherO]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/france-finds-variant-in-brittany-that-evades-standard-tests

If this was the case for @aygart’s AC then we’d have more reports of this. PCR tests can be adapted if needed. If the strain isn’t more contagious then it might fizzle out.