Author Topic: Tweets, Pictures, And Videos That Are Coronavirus Related (Read 490971 times)

biobook · « **Reply #2660 on:** August 06, 2021, 12:29:54 AM »

Quote from: avromie7 on August 05, 2021, 10:37:29 PM

Is there any evidence that the vaccine holds up to variants better than natural immunity? I would think natural immunity would be more effective because it's immunity to more than just specific proteins.

This was preliminary evidence, published July 8, on laboratory tests of how well a person's blood (antibodies) could neutralize the delta variant. It suggests that natural immunity is less effective.

After the first dose of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines, their blood barely inhibited the delta variant. But weeks after getting their second dose, nearly all had what researchers deemed an immune boost strong enough to neutralize the delta variant.

Unvaccinated people who had survived a bout of the coronavirus had antibodies that were four-fold less potent against the new mutant. But a single vaccine dose dramatically boosted their antibody levels — sparking cross-protection against the delta variant and two other mutants, the study found.

That supports public health recommendations that COVID-19 survivors get vaccinated rather than relying on natural immunity.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/covid-19-vaccines-still-work-against-delta-variant-new-research-finds

I called it preliminary, because it's measuring the antibody response to delta. Takes longer to learn how that antibody response relates to actually getting sick.

iwlw2 · « **Reply #2661 on:** August 06, 2021, 10:42:15 AM »

Quote from: skyguy918 on August 05, 2021, 07:08:14 PM

ETA - Tweet from former NYC Health Commissioner and CDC director:
https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1395410306113937408

IMO, this is exactly the problem. People are not idiots. Saying "even Covid-recovered need to get vaccinated because we don't know how long natural immunity lasts" does not exactly resonate when 1. it seems pretty obvious that many people with natural immunity still have it even after a year or more, 2. we now know that the immunity from the vaccines is actually more likely limited to about 6 months, as Pfizer and Moderna are all pushing now for boosters etc.
If we are supposed to take this seriously, there needs to be serious reasons to vaccinate even after being recovered, not this vague "well we don't know how long natural immunity lasts but we DO know about vaccines" when that's obviously false.
(Full disclosure, I am COVID recovered with high antibodies, and I took the Moderna vaccine with hopes of traveling, and I think anyone who does not definitely have COVID/antibodies who does not take the vaccine is an idiot.)

iwlw2 · « **Reply #2662 on:** August 06, 2021, 10:47:02 AM »

Quote from: biobook on August 05, 2021, 09:11:55 PM

There are two separate issues:
Are vaccinated and recovered equally immune? Probably, at least for 8 months
Are vaccinated and recovered equally able to prove their immunity? Probably not

The policy can only be based on people being able to submit proof, and vaccinated have clear proof of when they were vaccinated. Recovered may not have proof that they had covid, and even if they do, it may have been more than a year ago, so they don't have proof of immunity.

(I don't know what you mean by concrete science)

Now this is actually a reasonable argument which can be made, but note that it is based more on public policy than on individual health. Meaning, that when it comes to ensuring everyones safety by validating that people are protected, the easy way to do that is by simply ensuring everyone is vaccinated instead of trusting people that they have antibodies etc. However, this argument does not really make much of a difference to an individual who tested for antibodies who is hesitant to vaccinate (assuming they dont need to simply in order to travel or do other things,,,,,).

iwlw2 · « **Reply #2663 on:** August 06, 2021, 10:53:52 AM »

Quote from: AsherO on August 05, 2021, 10:49:28 PM

You would think. There’s extensive evidence that vaccines lower hospitalization and fatality in Delta cases, and anecdotal evidence that Delta spread is lower in states with higher vaccination.

Similar data on that scale does not exist for recoverees. If it does exist please point to it.

Don't have patience to go search for it right now, but wasn't there something posted upthread or maybe in another thread that publicly available data on the dashboards in Israel showed that vaccinated people were getting delta breakthrough cases at a rate about 6x recovered people. @biobook I think you had written something about that, do you know what I am referring to?

biobook · « **Reply #2664 on:** August 06, 2021, 11:13:33 AM »

Quote from: iwlw2 on August 06, 2021, 10:53:52 AM

Don't have patience to go search for it right now, but wasn't there something posted upthread or maybe in another thread that publicly available data on the dashboards in Israel showed that vaccinated people were getting delta breakthrough cases at a rate about 6x recovered people. @biobook I think you had written something about that, do you know what I am referring to?

Yes, I referred to it in a few posts

but that data hasn't been thoroughly analyzed AFAIK. The raw data was presented, and there was a higher percentage of new covid cases among vaccinated than among recovered. BUT they hadn't yet studied the important details, such as the ages involved. So if, to invent an extreme example, the vax breakthroughs were all 80 year olds, and the recovered reinfections were all 30 year olds, we would interpret the 6x difference differently. It was pointed out that the oldest people were first to vax, so perhaps first to get breakthroughs, and age could be an important difference. I haven't seen anything since that first report though.

biobook · « **Reply #2665 on:** August 06, 2021, 11:25:03 AM »

Here it is, starting with this post and continues down the page
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=117153.msg2472296#msg2472296

So it's 3000 out of 5,193,000 vaccinated people got sick = 0.0578%
72 out of 835,000 who had covid naturally got sick in the past couple months =0.0086%

This was announced around July 13, so includes the months before the spurt of delta.

AsherO · « **Reply #2666 on:** August 06, 2021, 03:25:05 PM »

Quote from: iwlw2 on August 06, 2021, 10:53:52 AM

Don't have patience to go search for it right now, but wasn't there something posted upthread or maybe in another thread that publicly available data on the dashboards in Israel showed that vaccinated people were getting delta breakthrough cases at a rate about 6x recovered people. @biobook I think you had written something about that, do you know what I am referring to?

6x in absolute terms or proportionately? There are probably much more than six times as many fully vaccinated Israeli adults as there are unvaccinated Israeli adult recoverees.

biobook · « **Reply #2667 on:** August 06, 2021, 03:34:33 PM »

Quote from: AsherO on August 06, 2021, 03:25:05 PM

6x in absolute terms or proportionately? There are probably much more than six times as many fully vaccinated Israeli adults as there are unvaccinated Israeli adult recoverees.

Yes, see my post right above yours. About 40x absolutely, about 6x proportionately. But not yet thoroughly analyzed.

AsherO · « **Reply #2668 on:** August 06, 2021, 04:08:59 PM »

Quote from: biobook on August 06, 2021, 03:34:33 PM

Yes, see my post right above yours. About 40x absolutely, about 6x proportionately. But not yet thoroughly analyzed.

You make a valid point. The other thing to compare is time since infection/vaccination (do you count 1st, 2nd dose, or 2 weeks after 2nd)?

Objective science would be helpful here, either way.

biobook · « **Reply #2669 on:** August 06, 2021, 04:19:00 PM »

Right. They seemed confused about it, so perhaps they're waiting for more data to accumulate to get a better handle on it. That report was cases in May-June, IIUC.