The problem is that you can never test the theory of herd immunity in Lakewood if the bar keeps changing. When shuls opened en masse, followed by schools over two months ago with no social distancing we were assured by some on this forum that Lakewood was not even close to herd immunity and we would likely see a surge of infections. When that didn’t materialize we were told it was because there was no exposure in the community but once people started bringing it in from Florida it would rapidly spread. Now we have had lots of exposure and contact with no precautions but that still doesn’t indicate herd immunity because we actually need a critical mass of spreaders to get anywhere.
How about we pick one benchmark and stick with it. To me it seems that we should take a look at where things go the next couple of weeks and if we don’t see a massive wave of new home grown infections we can be reasonable sure that Lakewood has a decent amount of herd immunity. To be sure, if you manage to introduce a large amount of any virus be it measles, covid etc. into Lakewood there will be some limited spread as long as there are any non immune individuals. But that’s not what herd immunity is about. Florida is a different story as it never had the opportunity to achieve herd immunity so it was a matter of the virus being present and people letting down their guard. That will continue to happen in other locales until a vaccine is introduced.
You’ve made this claim before, I’ve challenged you, and you’ve come up short, so let’s do it again: who has claimed that Lakewood has definitely not reached herd immunity and that we will definitely see a new surge in infections?
I’ll tell you the answer: you’re lying. Nobody said that there definitely isn’t, they said you have no proof that there *is*.
I have a different idea. How about we don't make up our own goalposts for herd immunity and continue with life the way it is now, which is mostly back to normal, but keep in mind that we should not turn our brains off and be on the lookout for the chance that maybe there is not enough immunity to give a shtemple of herd immunity. This way we will be on the lookout to catch any potential resurgence and nip it in the bud. This is what makes sense considering that we still do not know how much immunity is needed for herd immunity or what a resurgence would really look like. No need to go crazy, just keep our eyes open and our brains on.
This is a reasonable approach and the one that most of the leadership in Lakewood is currently taking