Author Topic: The Future of Lakewood  (Read 544817 times)

Offline Moshe123

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2740 on: February 16, 2023, 01:26:03 PM »
He has a much better chance than you're giving him.
Due to redistricting, Lakewood makes up a significantly larger portion of the district than it did in 2021.

In 2021 there were around 75k votes for the 30th legislative district. Of those 75k, ~18k are no longer part of the district. If you remove those municipalities and flip most of lakewood's vote from either Kean or Thomson to one of the Ds on the ballot, the results would be extremely close.

If Lakewood really gets out to vote because their vote will actually make a difference, he will definitely win.

To get a picture of how red the district is after redistricting (the reddest in NJ), Trump won it by a decent margin, even without a single vote in Lakewood being needed.

Offline Moshe123

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2741 on: February 16, 2023, 01:30:05 PM »
Not only that, but in 2020, when there was very high frum turnout (relatively), Lakewood only made up 30% of the district voters.

Yes, I manually calculated everything.

Offline bochur22

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2742 on: February 16, 2023, 01:36:58 PM »
Not only that, but in 2020, when there was very high frum turnout (relatively), Lakewood only made up 30% of the district voters.

Yes, I manually calculated everything.
What may throw all these numbers off is that 2020 was a presidential election year, and a high- turnout one at that. The 2023 NJ Assembly election isn't exactly a barn-burner, especially since the governor isn't up for reelection this year. So the swing potential of Lakewood's vote is much larger if they can get good turnout

Offline Euclid

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2743 on: February 16, 2023, 01:38:34 PM »
Keep in mind that there are many people in town that still harbor a lot of resentment towards him from Corona

Offline Moshe123

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2744 on: February 16, 2023, 01:42:48 PM »
Keep in mind that there are many people in town that still harbor a lot of resentment towards him from Corona

The mask worshippers?

Offline bochur22

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2745 on: February 16, 2023, 01:43:10 PM »
Keep in mind that there are many people in town that still harbor a lot of resentment towards him from Corona
Same way not everyone knows what he does day-to-day to help people, not everyone knows what he did by corona behind the scenes (look at the difference between Murphy and Cuomo for instance)

Offline Moshe123

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2746 on: February 16, 2023, 01:44:06 PM »
What may throw all these numbers off is that 2020 was a presidential election year, and a high- turnout one at that. The 2023 NJ Assembly election isn't exactly a barn-burner, especially since the governor isn't up for reelection this year. So the swing potential of Lakewood's vote is much larger if they can get good turnout


In reality, Lakewood has pathetic turnout in off years.

I'm not even starting about Ds outside Lakewood that will vote Republican this time in order to block him.

Offline Moshe123

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2747 on: February 16, 2023, 01:44:45 PM »
Same way not everyone knows what he does day-to-day to help people, not everyone knows what he did by corona behind the scenes (look at the difference between Murphy and Cuomo for instance)

He was one of our most effective askanim.

Offline Euclid

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2748 on: February 16, 2023, 01:45:43 PM »
Same way not everyone knows what he does day-to-day to help people, not everyone knows what he did by corona behind the scenes (look at the difference between Murphy and Cuomo for instance)
You don't need to convince me. I'm just repeating what I've heard from too many people.

Offline bochur22

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2749 on: February 16, 2023, 01:51:52 PM »
You don't need to convince me. I'm just repeating what I've heard from too many people.
That's why you run a campaign...

Offline bochur22

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2750 on: February 16, 2023, 01:53:33 PM »
In reality, Lakewood has pathetic turnout in off years.
If he was running in order to push forward the school choice initiative he'd been pushing before, that might change people's minds

Offline aygart

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2751 on: February 16, 2023, 01:59:49 PM »
No more hakaras hatov to Kain?


But seriously, was there an issue with Kain? Why are we trying to push him out?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Euclid

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The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2752 on: February 16, 2023, 02:09:25 PM »
But seriously, was there an issue with Kain? Why are we trying to push him out?
(Because we're Abel to)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2753 on: February 16, 2023, 02:10:18 PM »
I find this conversation funny. I think Schnall knows pretty well who's support he will get and which party affiliation gives him the best chance to win.
Visibly Jewish

Offline aygart

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2754 on: February 16, 2023, 02:11:30 PM »
(Because we're Abel to)

Doesn't that go against the "kabalah from R Aharon and R Shneur" to reflect incumbents who were good to us? What message does this give to other incumbents? Wouldn't other positions make more sense?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2755 on: February 16, 2023, 02:24:51 PM »
Contrarian view: he’s not running to win, he’s running to increase general turnout from Lakewood for this and other races to further bolster his case for tuition vouchers.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline avromie7

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2756 on: February 16, 2023, 02:49:39 PM »
But seriously, was there an issue with Kain? Why are we trying to push him out?
There are 2 assembly seats from each district, he may push out the other guy and keep Kean.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline avromie7

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2757 on: February 16, 2023, 03:02:35 PM »
Not only that, but in 2020, when there was very high frum turnout (relatively), Lakewood only made up 30% of the district voters.

Yes, I manually calculated everything.
In the last Assembly election (2021), Lakewood was 26.5% of the vote. If we remove the 24% of 2021 voters that are no longer in the district, Lakewood would be 35% of the 2021 vote. Since Lakewood is still growing, we can assume Lakewood will be a larger percentage in 2023. High lakewood turnout can bring this number up, maybe even to 50%.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline YitzyS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2758 on: February 16, 2023, 08:22:30 PM »
Statement from Agudah on Schnall stepping down:


Rabbi Avi Schnall to Step Down as Agudath Israel’s New Jersey Director

Agudath Israel announced today that Rabbi Avi Schnall, director of Agudath Israel of America’s New Jersey office since 2014, has decided that he will be stepping down from his position. 

During Rabbi Schnall’s tenure, the New Jersey office’s accomplishments included – among many others – successful advocacy in increasing security funding for schools, defending the rights of Orthodox Jews to build shuls and eruvs in the face of discriminatory zoning laws, ensuring busing for nonpublic school students, and a first-time-ever tuition aid program for the Lakewood community. The New Jersey office pioneered Yahalom, a resource and referral center for parents of children with special needs, just launched Zahav, a resource and referral center for the growing senior community in Lakewood, and published a compliance guide for nonpublic schools. 

Agudath Israel is pleased to announce that New Jersey legislative activities will continue under the leadership of Rabbi Shlomo Schorr, associate director of government affairs. Rabbi Schorr’s previous experience as a journalist, with strong relationships in local and state government, makes him a natural to advocate for Orthodox Jewish interests in Trenton and in city and town halls across the state. 

“Avi’s clear voice has been heard for many years in the halls of government,” said Rabbi A.D. Motzen, Agudath Israel’s national director of government affairs. “Agudath Israel will continue to work with legislators on both sides of the aisle to amplify our message.”

“The New Jersey office identifies gaps in the frum community and works to solve them, such as with Yahalom and Agudah’s new Zahav program,” said Rabbi Yitzchok Ehrman, Agudath Israel’s COO. “We will continue Rabbi Schnall’s legacy in originating more solutions for New Jersey communities.” 

“While we will miss Avi terribly,” said Duvy Gross, Agudath Israel board member, “we are excited that Rabbi Shlomo Schorr’s place on Agudath Israel’s advocacy team will continue to lead the New Jersey office to many more legislative achievements.” 

“When Rabbi Schnall assumed the leadership of Agudath Israel’s New Jersey office some nine years ago, his energy, passion and commitment, his concern for both the community and the individual, supercharged the New Jersey office,” said Ralph Zucker, Agudath Israel board member. “Together with the dedicated staff in New Jersey, and in coordination with Agudah’s national offices, Agudah has made a lasting impact on countless lives. Rabbi Schnall’s legacy is strong, and we wish him the best.” 

“It has been a source of pride to work with the Agudah office in New Jersey, under Avi’s direction,” said Moshe Netzer, Agudath Israel board member. “He leaves the office strong, and we expect to see more great things happening from the seeds that he has already planted.”

Offline YitzyS

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Re: The Future of Lakewood
« Reply #2759 on: February 22, 2023, 03:06:22 PM »
There is talk of another Lakewood askan running for a higher office...