Some of the predictions with SD were also WAY off. Also, while Sweden is showing that SD was needed, it is also not reaching anywhere close to the magnitude of those forecasts.
Sweden also had less than 10% of people with anti-bodies. If you extrapolate their numbers per million, and consider they are nowhere near done yet, I don't think the "millions" is so ridiculously far-fetched. Consider that with all our restrictions, our first wave reached 100k (and counting). If you look at the magnitude of second waves in comparison to first waves, I don't think 1 million US deaths is completely out of the question before we're all done. I don't think it will happen, because science is not what it was by other pandemics, but I don't think it can be dismissed as absurd, either.