You asked for it.
@ilherman
Hey
@CountValentineSorry for catching up so late. Was busy for the past couple of weeks.
But yes I'm glad to bet $250 to the charity of your choice and vv that Trump wins.
I'll be honest, I was very concerned until recently (and I still am to a degree) but as I will explain, if you look at the data and read in between the lines you will see that Trump has a very good chance.
Let's start with Florida. Reliable polls have Biden up by about 5 points. We know that Florida is going to Trump at this point. (I'll explain soon why - but even Dems on the ground kinda agree). Now, let's just assume that PA where the polls have Biden up with about 5 points turns in fact out to fall in Trumps court (in this case AZ or WI will likely follow) then he is on track to 270 quite easily.
Back to Florida for a minute. You can do your own research but if you follow social media and browse through accounts from people who know Florida well you would know that they were saying all along that in order for Biden to have a shot in Florida he will have to come in to election day with a 200k lead in early vote totals. The Dems were optimistic a week ago when they had a 400k lead. However when in person early voting started their lead kept on narrowing. It's currently at 90k. Way behind where they have to be. For some context, in 2016 the Dems were leading with 100k votes going in to election day and we know that Clinton lost Florida. All these numbers are obviously not actual votes for candidates but rather how many registered Dems have voted VS Republicans. But it gives you an idea.