Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[jye]

I think Ami also had a study showing there's no crisis.

Totally anecdotal, but when I was in Monmouth hospital maternity ward, I asked around, and they said there's noticeably more boys being born to the Jewish community.

I honestly don't know if there's a crisis, and if the age gap is the answer, but to not do a serious study, seems insane.

Nothing new. There are more boys being born in every community. Its the mismatch in ages (as well as potentially yeshivish boys who make it through the system) that leads to a gap of hundreds of girls that becomes progressively larger with population growth.

[Baruch]

Of all the potential reasons, a gender imbalance at birth seems the most farfetched to me.

This gender imbalance actually solves the crisis.
That there are slightly more boys born than girls is a scientific fact. That noticeably more boys than girls are being born was the chiddush.

[jye]

Rabbi Ribner says that 15 years ago there was a meeting about the shidduch crisis.
If there was a crisis then, I'm assuming there were hundreds (thousands?) of girls that were 28 and up. It's 15 years later, are there hundreds (thousands?) of girls 43 and up not married?

Anecdotally some do marry eventually, some don’t. Two cousins of mine were normal regular older singles. One in her 30’s married a widower with kids, one at around 30 married a guy with severe Asperger’s. A bunch of their group of single older girls never married (mid 40’s). At a recent frum weekend conference there were tablefuls of single girls approaching middle age.

I believe in Europe there was also a Shidduch crisis of sorts. Many poor girls never married. Some married men who could be their father. Many women died young or at childbirth and an unmarried sister would take the nifteres’ place. I don’t know that it’s fair to call the situation today unprecedented but it is nonetheless tragic.

[Baruch]

https://youtu.be/Ga29xvW4XLo?feature=shared

[jye]

If you don't like these studies then go and do a counter study. Don't start social engineering based on anecdotes because MAYBE a study didn't get every last data point you would like it to.

Which study is referenced here? It sounds like an extensive Lakewood study WAS recently done?

https://thelakewoodscoop.com/news/op-ed-the-time-for-our-bnos-yisroel-is-now/

“After an extensive survey was done throughout our Kehillah (which cost a few hundred thousand dollars to compile the actual data) the large number of single girls in Shidduchim was staggering and very painful.
The naysayers may repel the theory until the cows come home, but here are the facts:
Based on the recent extensive and expensive research survey done throughout our kehillah of Lakewood, with the input of our top shadchanim and roshei mosdos - and as I
write this - for every two girls in shidduchim there is only ONE boy in shidduchim. Yes, read it and weep. 2 to 1 ratio.“

[aygart]

Nothing new. There are more boys being born in every community. Its the mismatch in ages (as well as potentially yeshivish boys who make it through the system) that leads to a gap of hundreds of girls that becomes progressively larger with population growth.

That can lead to a potential gap if there are zero other factors.

FTFY

[aygart]

Which study is referenced here? It sounds like an extensive Lakewood study WAS recently done?

https://thelakewoodscoop.com/news/op-ed-the-time-for-our-bnos-yisroel-is-now/

“After an extensive survey was done throughout our Kehillah (which cost a few hundred thousand dollars to compile the actual data) the large number of single girls in Shidduchim was staggering and very painful.
The naysayers may repel the theory until the cows come home, but here are the facts:
Based on the recent extensive and expensive research survey done throughout our kehillah of Lakewood, with the input of our top shadchanim and roshei mosdos - and as I
write this - for every two girls in shidduchim there is only ONE boy in shidduchim. Yes, read it and weep. 2 to 1 ratio.“

Um, no this is not about marriage but rather about boys or girls in shidduchim. That is not at all the same thing. If you have a study go publish it, don't put out little snippets of cherry=picked data

[jye]

Um, no this is not about marriage but rather about boys or girls in shidduchim. That is not at all the same thing. If you have a study go publish it, don't put out little snippets of cherry=picked data

I not familiar with the study or its authenticity but to claim that 2 girls in Shidduchim for every boy has no bearing on marriage and the Shidduch crisis is completely not in reality. Sorry.

[aygart]

I not familiar with the study or its authenticity but to claim that 2 girls in Shidduchim for every boy has no bearing on marriage and the Shidduch crisis is completely not in reality. Sorry.

If it takes them twice as long to get married or more that makes a lot of sense with the same final result.

[AsherO]

Rabbi Ribner says that 15 years ago there was a meeting about the shidduch crisis.
If there was a crisis then, I'm assuming there were hundreds (thousands?) of girls that were 28 and up. It's 15 years later, are there hundreds (thousands?) of girls 43 and up not married?

Hundreds of single women over 43 in a broad enough pool of people is definitely possible. x amount of people don’t find a spouse by 43, it’s tragic, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen.

[yitzgar]

Some of the older singles marry divorcees. How does/should that affect the numbers? (Potentially 2 girls per boy)

[jye]

If it takes them twice as long to get married or more that makes a lot of sense with the same final result.

Again, taking the 2 to 1 study result at face value, if that number is a constant each year they can take 200 years to get married. Still won’t happen. It’s a mathematical impossibility. Unless a whole lot of divorces and female deaths take place so some girls get second dibs at the boy.

[aygart]

Again, taking the 2 to 1 study result at face value, if that number is a constant each year they can take 200 years to get married. Still won’t happen. It’s a mathematical impossibility. Unless a whole lot of divorces and female deaths take place so some girls get second dibs at the boy.

There is absolutely zero details known about this supposed study other than an anonymous letter to the editor at TLS.

[Definitions2]

Making major changes based on anecdotes is a sure way to have serious unintended consequences. Very sloppy.

If a change can be made once, it can be made twice.
What's an example of something you're worried about?
It doesn't have to be something that you thought through from a to z. Just picking at your mind.

[Euclid]

Like turning a perceived shortage of boys into an actual shortage of girls.

How would that happen?

[avromie7]

If it takes them twice as long to get married or more that makes a lot of sense with the same final result.

Which is very likely, considering the average girl enters shidduchim at a significantly younger age than the average boy.

[Euclid]

Completely based on anecdotes, but it seems like family sizes are smaller now than 15-20 years ago. So if there's an age gap issue it would be smaller now than in the past.

[yitzgar]

How would that happen?

Assuming the numbers are about even now, narrowing the age gap would create a surplus of boys

[yitzgar]

Completely based on anecdotes, but it seems like family sizes are smaller now than 15-20 years ago. So if there's an age gap issue it would be smaller now than in the past.

Are you comparing apples to apples?

[Euclid]

Assuming the numbers are about even now, narrowing the age gap would create a surplus of boys

I thought the opposing side of the age gap theory claims that it's not a numbers issue.