Marry Young / Shidduch Crisis

[joe1234]

I am one myself. I may have a different opinion or perspective than the male population but there is a general consensus on what is considered beautiful and what is considered really not.

there definitely is a general consensus although the general consensus amongst female is very different than the one of the male population...

[YitzyS]

Ummmm... can we quickly switch this conversation.

[biobook]

I understand but you still have more boys born every year.
So, unless the growth continues to increase, or the age difference increases you will run out of girls.

Slightly more boys than girls are born every year throughout the country.  But mortality is higher among boys in childhood and adolescence, because boys are slightly more likely to die of infectious diseases, and are more likely to engage in risky behaviors that lead to fatal accidents.  The numbers of men and women become equal at about the age of 20.

I don't know if this generalization is true for Lakewood, but it suggests that instead of comparing births, it might be more meaningful to compare the number of boys and girls who graduate high school.

[Yehuda57]

Interestingly, I never find that the most beautiful girls get married first or the least attractive girls get married last (in yeshivish circles)

As stated above, the issue is a lack of data. So I think we need to get one of those simcha accounts that posts pictures of engagements, filter by community type, and add ages. Then we let the public vote on attractiveness and give each kallah an attractiveness score, then make a graph to show age and attractiveness score to see if what you're saying is correct.

Ummmm... can we quickly switch this conversation.

I guess that's another way I could have written this post

[CountValentine]

Slightly more boys than girls are born every year throughout the country.  But mortality is higher among boys in childhood and adolescence, because boys are slightly more likely to die of infectious diseases, and are more likely to engage in risky behaviors that lead to fatal accidents.  The numbers of men and women become equal at about the age of 20.

I don't know if this generalization is true for Lakewood, but it suggests that instead of comparing births, it might be more meaningful to compare the number of boys and girls who graduate high school.

[CountValentine]

Slightly more boys than girls are born every year throughout the country.  But mortality is higher among boys in childhood and adolescence, because boys are slightly more likely to die of infectious diseases, and are more likely to engage in risky behaviors that lead to fatal accidents.  The numbers of men and women become equal at about the age of 20.

That makes sense.

I don't know if this generalization is true for Lakewood, but it suggests that instead of comparing births, it might be more meaningful to compare the number of boys and girls who graduate high school.

That would be more accurate.

[Euclid]

You literally quoted the explanation

But if we start with a fresh slate, and cut the age gap, you agree that the numbers would even out since there would be an even amount of cohorts? Not sure why clinging to our past mistakes should prevent us from fixing it for future generations.

[Euclid]

As stated above, the issue is a lack of data. So I think we need to get one of those simcha accounts that posts pictures of engagements, filter by community type, and add ages. Then we let the public vote on attractiveness and give each kallah an attractiveness score, then make a graph to show age and attractiveness score to see if what you're saying is correct.

I guess that's another way I could have written this post

We can even call it SeferPanim or something like that.

[Yehuda57]

We can even call it SeferPanim or something like that.

SeferPanimYafos

[yos9694]

But if we start with a fresh slate, and cut the age gap, you agree that the numbers would even out since there would be an even amount of cohorts? Not sure why clinging to our past mistakes should prevent us from fixing it for future generations.

Very possible. If we started with a clean slate then I would start to be interested in discussing the age gap statistics and finding the proper data. But that's a moot point since it requires x'ing out thousands of girls

[yelped]

@pbf That is what I was saying re the difference between Chassidesh and Yeshivish communities. It's seems plainly obvious to me.

[pbf]

@pbf That is what I was saying re the difference between Chassidesh and Yeshivish communities. It's seems plainly obvious to me.

Agree

[Euclid]

Very possible. If we started with a clean slate then I would start to be interested in discussing the age gap statistics and finding the proper data. But that's a moot point since it requires x'ing out thousands of girls

Why's it moot? The older cohort of boys will be forced to marry the older cohort of girls. Those girls won't be stranded.

But even if it is sacrificing (which I'm not sure is true, Not A Statistician), we're sacrificing thousands now for tens of thousands (iyh) in the future. We can't cling to the past mistakes - since it's a compounding problem, there needs to be a painful fix now instead of an even bigger, more painful problem  in the future.

[joe1234]

Why's it moot? The older cohort of boys will be forced to marry the older cohort of girls. Those girls won't be stranded.

But even if it is sacrificing (which I'm not sure is true, Not A Statistician), we're sacrificing thousands now for tens of thousands (iyh) in the future. We can't cling to the past mistakes - since it's a compounding problem, there needs to be a painful fix now instead of an even bigger, more painful problem  in the future.

do you have a daughter on the market?

[S209]

You'll notice there are never any statisticians involved, only laypeople saying statistical words.

We do have Euclid on this thread.

[Euclid]

do you have a daughter on the market?

I do not, so I don't have that bias. I also don't have a horse in this race - I don't know if the age gap is the right solution and/or problem. I'm just trying to understand what our resident data scientist's position is.

In general terms, when solving a communal issue with a macro fix - it may hurt on a micro, individual scale. It's a necessary evil.

[CountValentine]

do you have a daughter on the market?

2

[S209]

Slightly more boys than girls are born every year throughout the country.

Some of this is usually attributed to selective abortion which probably less prevalent in Lakewood. Despite this, Lakewood has a somewhat higher than average discrepancy.

[biobook]

Some of this is usually attributed to selective abortion which probably less prevalent in Lakewood. Despite this, Lakewood has a somewhat higher than average discrepancy.

Selective abortion explains the much higher male births in countries like China, but is not that common in the US.  (Selective infanticide has also been suggested to occur there.)

More male than female births has been found historically in the US as well, before selective abortion was an option.  It can be influenced by external factors, such as stress, wartime, poor nutrition, which can lead to fetal death.  I think the male fetus is more sensitive to these, and that more females are born under these conditions, but I haven't looked into that.  GIYF.

In any event, it seems to me that the numbers graduating high school would be more useful and shouldn't be that hard to come by. 

[Yehuda57]

In any event, it seems to me that the numbers graduating high school would be more useful and shouldn't be that hard to come by.

Only if yeshivahs count as graduating HS.