The Future of Lakewood

[dealfinder11]

He got votes from Monmouth Democrats that voted down the ballot, it was basically the same amount of votes as the other Democrat in the race.

Exactly. Avi getting down-ballot dem votes in Monmouth was a big unknown.

[Euclid]

I actually checked my cc statement last night to see if my childs school refunded me for the month of november but then I realized that it may take up to 5 business days to receive the refund... or maybe if you have direct deposit you may receive it sooner...

I'm still waiting for all the money that the schools got for Covid to filter down

[iwlw2]

As aygart mentioned, you make it sound as if AS can control exactly how many votes he gets. They wanted to make sure they win and ran a successful campaign, no one knew he'll win with 9k votes.

Actually if you read what I wrote, obviously he and they could not control the amount, and they could not have foreseen the margins. However it seems that just looking at the numbers it was fairly obvious that unless there was a huge unexpected turn away from previous elections, AS would win comfortably and most likely in what could be termed a landslide, and would demonstrate the power of the Lakewood voting bloc in addition to the fact that it could not be taken for granted as Rep. but would switch to Dem. if the issues warranted and could be a kingmaker. Albeit not with the same margins as he actually got with all the noise and pushing, but still enough to meet that goal. @YitzyS was saying that there was a push to drive up the margins as much as possible, seemingly even beyond just meeting those goals, and that seems borne out by the campaign. I was simply trying to understand why.

[iwlw2]

Exactly. Avi getting down-ballot dem votes in Monmouth was a big unknown.

Was it anything more than voters who just voted Democrat straight down the ballot? There are some of those in Monmouth County too no, did AS get significantly more votes than other Democrats on the ticket?

[iwlw2]

Every extra vote for Avi was a voter that changed parties, the most desirable voter every politician salivates over.  It’s not enough to win in a landslide if the raw vote totals are not large enough to influence a future race. Show your power in numbers and the election has consequences that are far beyond what AS can accomplish on his own.

Speaking of strength, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where Lakewood will have the power to decide the next governor.

I hear that. I just wonder if they really are enough numbers to truly affect a statewide race such as governor, Lakewood came out pretty strong for Cittarelli and even with as much support as a Rep. for governor has gotten elsewhere in the state, it was not enough to push him over. But I definitely understand that it somewhat helps future campaigns to drive up the numbers.

[Moshe123]

Amazing job by Lakewood askanim. I was a big naysayer. I didn't believe that the goyim will just sit on their hands and that there will be such achdus. The margin is astonishing.

[YitzyS]

@YitzyS was saying that there was a push to drive up the margins as much as possible, seemingly even beyond just meeting those goals, and that seems borne out by the campaign.

-1

Maybe I wasn't clear. The person I met who told me that he better win big was not affiliated with the campaign. It was a big marketing expert, but he wasn't telling me that the campaign needed margins. He was telling me that he believed it was terrible for the community for someone to challenge the incumbent in this case, and the only way to save face was to win by a landslide.

I have no source within the campaign telling me that they wanted anything more than a 1-vote victory.

[YitzyS]

I was a big naysayer.

Nah, really??

Avi has no chance.

It's still very important to support him.

 

ETA: TBH, I also thought it was a long shot. I looked at the numbers and saw it was possible, but I wouldn't have bet my money on him.

[Thrifty]

To be honest this post irked me a bit. It wasn't the daas torah that compelled me to vote for him. It was his goal and campaign mission.

The opposite is true for me.  I believe there is a 0.006% chance of any real tuition relief when you factor in the NJEA and their support of democrats.  I only made the effort to go vote because of daas torah and because I believe that a unified voting bloc is so important for Lakewood long term.

[Definitions2]

The opposite is true for me.  I believe there is a 0.006% chance of any real tuition relief when you factor in the NJEA and their support of democrats.  I only made the effort to go vote because of daas torah and because I believe that a unified voting bloc is so important for Lakewood long term.

I can hear that. I'm extremely uneducated about politics.

[aygart]

I'm still waiting for all the money that the schools got for Covid to filter down

They are also waiting for all the money people got from COVID to trickle down to pay the tuition they owe.

[Just A Jew]

They are also waiting for all the money people got from COVID to trickle down to pay the tuition they owe.

That money trickled out a long time ago. Nothing left to trickle down.

[aygart]

Actually if you read what I wrote, obviously he and they could not control the amount, and they could not have foreseen the margins. However it seems that just looking at the numbers it was fairly obvious that unless there was a huge unexpected turn away from previous elections, AS would win comfortably and most likely in what could be termed a landslide, and would demonstrate the power of the Lakewood voting bloc in addition to the fact that it could not be taken for granted as Rep. but would switch to Dem. if the issues warranted and could be a kingmaker. Albeit not with the same margins as he actually got with all the noise and pushing, but still enough to meet that goal. @YitzyS was saying that there was a push to drive up the margins as much as possible, seemingly even beyond just meeting those goals, and that seems borne out by the campaign. I was simply trying to understand why.

You say this now while  before election day many were wondering if he would be able to get enough votes from Lakewood to push him over the top.

[Euclid]

They are also waiting for all the money people got from COVID to trickle down to pay the tuition they owe.

And I'm still waiting for a refund on a missing 4 months of education

[aygart]

That money trickled out a long time ago. Nothing left to trickle down.

So they can both wait it out.

[dealfinder11]

Nah, really?? 

ETA: TBH, I also thought it was a long shot. I looked at the numbers and saw it was possible, but I wouldn't have bet my money on him.

In an extremely simplified manner - last election Thompson got 42k votes in Lakewood and Howell (combined), and the Dem got about 10k. The election was won by roughly 30k votes. So flip 15k and the election is Schnall. Very conceivable but much easier said than done. If the Lakewood community listens to the Moetzes and every influential Rav in Lakewood, I think Schnall will win. But that's the big if.

[yuneeq]

I hear that. I just wonder if they really are enough numbers to truly affect a statewide race such as governor, Lakewood came out pretty strong for Cittarelli and even with as much support as a Rep. for governor has gotten elsewhere in the state, it was not enough to push him over. But I definitely understand that it somewhat helps future campaigns to drive up the numbers.

A better way to look at it - the last election was much closer than expected, and far too close for comfort for the democrats. Lakewood split their votes between both sides, not evenly - but there was not really any compelling reason to vote Murphy.

If the Murphy - Ciattarelli race is cloned in 2025, if there’s even a slight shift right statewide - the race becomes a pure 50/50 toss up. A unified Lakewood would be the deciding factor in either direction. But in order for Lakewood to be unified the future candidates would have to start catering to Lakewood from today.

[WayBackMachine]

Bottom line, when does free tuition start? Rosh Chodesh or December 1st?

Poor Avi... people are really going to hold him to this!

I ripped my check already

[WayBackMachine]

I was very turned off by the anti-semitic vibes of his campaign

same here, I was going to vote for ned even though I liked avi, but after seeing his platform is based on attacking avi and telling us we are screwed with no hope, I figured I'd rather vote for someone that aspires to help us, versus someone that will tell us we have no chance.

while I hope for the best I don't believe major changes will come anytime soon, but I hope you can prove me wrong.

[dealfinder11]

same here, I was going to vote for ned even though I liked avi

Huh?